Path: news.cs.tut.fi!news.funet.fi!sunic!ugle.unit.no!trane.uninett.no!ifi.uio.no!wabbit.cc.uow.edu.au!dmssyd.syd.dms.CSIRO.AU!metro!ipso!corona!not-for-mail From: rwc@ips.oz.au (Regional Warning Centre) Newsgroups: aus.radio,ips.solar.activity,rec.radio.amateur.misc,rec.radio.info Subject: IPS Daily Report - 18 February 95 Followup-To: aus.radio,rec.radio.amateur.misc Date: 18 Feb 1995 23:42:40 -0000 Organization: IPS Radio & Space Services. Sydney, Australia. Lines: 79 Approved: rec-radio-info@ve6mgs.ampr.ab.ca Distribution: world Message-ID: <3i60lg$3k6@flare.syd.ips.oz.au> NNTP-Posting-Host: flare.syd.ips.oz.au Xref: news.cs.tut.fi aus.radio:818 rec.radio.amateur.misc:67988 rec.radio.info:7762 SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT ISSUED AT 18/2330Z FEBRUARY 1995 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES FROM THE REGIONAL WARNING CENTRE (RWC), SYDNEY. SUMMARY FOR 18 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 19 FEBRUARY - 21 FEBRUARY ----------------------------------------------------------- 1A. SOLAR SUMMARY Activity: low Flares: none Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number : 89/33 GOES satellite data for 17 Feb Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.4E+06 Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04 Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.1E+08 (high) X-ray background: A5.5 Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day. 1B. SOLAR FORECAST 19 Feb 20 Feb 21 Feb Activity Low Low Low Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected Forecast 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Feb: 92/37 ----------------------------------------------------------- 2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY Geomagnetic field at Learmonth: quiet to unsettled Estimated Indices : A K Observed A Index 17 Feb Learmonth 9 3222 2322 Fredericksburg 10 5 Planetary 10 6 Observed Kp for 17 Feb: 1222 2222 2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST DATE Ap CONDITIONS 19 Feb 10 Quiet to unsettled 20 Feb 10 Quiet 21 Feb 10 Quiet ----------------------------------------------------------- 3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY LATITUDE BAND DATE LOW MIDDLE HIGH 18 Feb normal normal normal PCA Event : None. 3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST LATITUDE BAND DATE LOW MIDDLE HIGH 19 Feb normal normal normal 20 Feb normal normal normal 21 Feb normal normal normal ----------------------------------------------------------- 4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY Observed DATE T-index MUFs at Sydney 18 Feb 56 15 to 30% above predicted monthly values Predicted Monthly T-index for February: 15 4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST DATE T-index MUFs 19 Feb 50 15 to 20% above predicted monthly values 20 Feb 30 Near predicted monthly values 21 Feb 30 Near predicted monthly values COMMENT: MUFs at Townsville were 15-20% above predicted monthly values yesterday. Hobart MUFs were near predicted monthly values, with Spread F observed at times during local night. -- IPS Regional Warning Centre, Sydney |IPS Radio and Space Services RWC Duty Forecaster tel: +61 2 4148329 |PO Box 5606 Recorded Message tel: +61 2 4148330 |West Chatswood NSW 2057 email: rwc@ips.oz.au fax: +61 2 4148331 |AUSTRALIA