Newsgroups: aus.radio,ips.solar.activity,rec.radio.amateur.misc,rec.radio.info Path: news.cs.tut.fi!news.funet.fi!sunic!psinntp!psinntp!psinntp!rebecca!news.crd.ge.com!uunet!news.sprintlink.net!howland.reston.ans.net!vixen.cso.uiuc.edu!uwm.edu!msunews!harbinger.cc.monash.edu.au!news.cs.su.oz.au!metro!ipso!rwc From: rwc@flare.syd.ips.oz.au (Regional Warning Centre) Subject: IPS Daily Report - 13 February 95 Message-ID: <1995Feb13.234832.22725@ips.oz.au> Followup-To: aus.radio,rec.radio.amateur.misc Sender: news@ips.oz.au (Usenet News) Nntp-Posting-Host: flare.syd.ips.oz.au Organization: IPS Radio and Space Services. Sydney, Australia. Date: Mon, 13 Feb 1995 23:48:32 GMT Approved: rec-radio-info@ve6mgs.ampr.ab.ca Lines: 83 Xref: news.cs.tut.fi aus.radio:817 rec.radio.amateur.misc:67906 rec.radio.info:7743 SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT ISSUED AT 13/2330Z FEBRUARY 1995 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES FROM THE REGIONAL WARNING CENTRE (RWC), SYDNEY. SUMMARY FOR 13 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 14 FEBRUARY - 16 FEBRUARY ----------------------------------------------------------- 1A. SOLAR SUMMARY Activity: very low Flares: none. Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number : 86/29 GOES satellite data for 12 Feb Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.0E+05 Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04 Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.4E+06 (normal) X-ray background: A4.3 Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day. 1B. SOLAR FORECAST 14 Feb 15 Feb 16 Feb Activity Very low Very low Very low Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected Forecast 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Feb: 80/20 ----------------------------------------------------------- 2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY Geomagnetic field at Learmonth: Mostly active with major storm levels from 12-15UT. Estimated Indices : A K Observed A Index 12 Feb Learmonth 28 3444 6423 Fredericksburg 20 25 Planetary 25 19 Observed Kp for 12 Feb: 4434 3433 2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST DATE Ap CONDITIONS 14 Feb 18 Mostly unsettled however, there may be occasional active levels through this period. 15 Feb 8 Quiet to unsettled 16 Feb 8 Quiet to unsettled ----------------------------------------------------------- 3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY LATITUDE BAND DATE LOW MIDDLE HIGH 13 Feb normal fair-normal fair PCA Event : None. 3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST LATITUDE BAND DATE LOW MIDDLE HIGH 14 Feb normal fair-normal fair 15 Feb normal normal fair-normal 16 Feb normal normal normal ----------------------------------------------------------- 4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY Observed DATE T-index MUFs at Sydney 13 Feb 3 Near predicted monthly values with 20% depressions 10 and 14-15UT. Sporadic E obscured the F region at 01UT. Predicted Monthly T-index for February: 15 4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST DATE T-index MUFs 14 Feb 15 Near predicted monthly values 15 Feb 20 Near predicted monthly values 16 Feb 25 Near predicted monthly values COMMENT: MUFs at Townsville were near predicted monthly values with 30% enhancements from 04-05UT and 14-15UT. Hobart MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values with 20-30% depressions 00-02UT and 14-16UT. Spread F and Sporadic E were also observed at Hobart. MUFs at higher latitudes may be affected by sporadic E and spread F today. -- IPS Regional Warning Centre, Sydney |IPS Radio and Space Services RWC Duty Forecaster tel: +61 2 4148329 |PO Box 5606 Recorded Message tel: +61 2 4148330 |West Chatswood NSW 2057 email: rwc@ips.oz.au fax: +61 2 4148331 |AUSTRALIA