Newsgroups: aus.radio,ips.solar.activity,rec.radio.amateur.misc,rec.radio.info Path: news.cs.tut.fi!news.funet.fi!sunic!trane.uninett.no!ifi.uio.no!wabbit.cc.uow.edu.au!news.ci.com.au!metro!ipso!rwc From: rwc@corona.syd.ips.oz.au (Regional Warning Centre) Subject: IPS Daily Report - 12 February 95 Message-ID: <1995Feb12.233455.22199@ips.oz.au> Followup-To: aus.radio,rec.radio.amateur.misc Sender: news@ips.oz.au (Usenet News) Nntp-Posting-Host: corona.syd.ips.oz.au Organization: IPS Radio and Space Services. Sydney, Australia. Date: Sun, 12 Feb 1995 23:34:55 GMT Approved: rec-radio-info@ve6mgs.ampr.ab.ca Lines: 83 Xref: news.cs.tut.fi aus.radio:807 rec.radio.amateur.misc:67587 rec.radio.info:7704 SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT ISSUED AT 12/2330Z FEBRUARY 1995 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES FROM THE REGIONAL WARNING CENTRE (RWC), SYDNEY. SUMMARY FOR 12 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 13 FEBRUARY - 15 FEBRUARY ----------------------------------------------------------- 1A. SOLAR SUMMARY Activity: very low Flares: none. Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number : 81/22 GOES satellite data for 11 Feb Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.1E+05 Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.7E+04 Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.8E+06 (normal) X-ray background: A5.3 Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day. 1B. SOLAR FORECAST 13 Feb 14 Feb 15 Feb Activity Very low Very low Very low Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected Forecast 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Feb: 80/20 ----------------------------------------------------------- 2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY Geomagnetic field at Learmonth: active Estimated Indices : A K Observed A Index 11 Feb Learmonth 19 4224 3443 Fredericksburg 16 20 Planetary 20 20 Observed Kp for 11 Feb: 2253 5333 2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST DATE Ap CONDITIONS 13 Feb 18 Active 14 Feb 12 Unsettled 15 Feb 10 Quiet to unsettled COMMENT: Active levels expected again for today, then declining to unsettled. ----------------------------------------------------------- 3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY LATITUDE BAND DATE LOW MIDDLE HIGH 12 Feb normal fair fair-poor PCA Event : None. 3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST LATITUDE BAND DATE LOW MIDDLE HIGH 13 Feb normal fair poor 14 Feb normal normal fair 15 Feb normal normal fair ----------------------------------------------------------- 4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY Observed DATE T-index MUFs at Sydney 12 Feb -13 about 15% below predicted monthly values Predicted Monthly T-index for February: 15 4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST DATE T-index MUFs 13 Feb 5 Depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values 14 Feb 15 Near predicted monthly values 15 Feb 15 Near predicted monthly values COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 5 was issued on 11 February and is current for interval 11-13 February. MUFs at Townsville were depressed early in UT day then recovered. Hobart MUFs were depressed 15-30% all day, yesterday. Depressed conditions are not expected today for Northern Australia comms. Mild depressions are possible for first half of UT day today for southern Australia region. -- IPS Regional Warning Centre, Sydney |IPS Radio and Space Services RWC Duty Forecaster tel: +61 2 4148329 |PO Box 5606 Recorded Message tel: +61 2 4148330 |West Chatswood NSW 2057 email: rwc@ips.oz.au fax: +61 2 4148331 |AUSTRALIA