Newsgroups: aus.radio,ips.solar.activity,rec.radio.amateur.misc,rec.radio.info Path: news.cs.tut.fi!news.funet.fi!sunic!trane.uninett.no!ifi.uio.no!wabbit.cc.uow.edu.au!news.ci.com.au!metro!ipso!rwc From: rwc@flare.syd.ips.oz.au (Regional Warning Centre) Subject: IPS Daily Report - 11 February 95 Message-ID: <1995Feb11.234245.3932@ips.oz.au> Followup-To: aus.radio,rec.radio.amateur.misc Sender: news@ips.oz.au (Usenet News) Nntp-Posting-Host: flare.syd.ips.oz.au Organization: IPS Radio and Space Services. Sydney, Australia. Date: Sat, 11 Feb 1995 23:42:45 GMT Approved: rec-radio-info@ve6mgs.ampr.ab.ca Lines: 88 Xref: news.cs.tut.fi aus.radio:806 rec.radio.amateur.misc:67524 rec.radio.info:7694 SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT ISSUED AT 11/2330Z FEBRUARY 1995 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES FROM THE REGIONAL WARNING CENTRE (RWC), SYDNEY. SUMMARY FOR 11 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 12 FEBRUARY - 14 FEBRUARY ----------------------------------------------------------- 1A. SOLAR SUMMARY Activity: very low Flares: none. Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number : 81/22 GOES satellite data for 10 Feb Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.4E+05 Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04 Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.0E+07 (normal) X-ray background: A9.4 Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day. 1B. SOLAR FORECAST 12 Feb 13 Feb 14 Feb Activity Very low Very low Very low Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected Forecast 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Feb: 80/20 ----------------------------------------------------------- 2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY Geomagnetic field at Learmonth: unsettled to active Estimated Indices : A K Observed A Index 10 Feb Learmonth 18 3333 4433 Fredericksburg 20 1 Planetary 20 3 Observed Kp for 10 Feb: 1111 1211 2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST DATE Ap CONDITIONS 12 Feb 20 Active 13 Feb 18 Unsettled to active 14 Feb 18 Unsettled to active COMMENT: Activity arrived earlier than expected with active periods observed overnight. Active periods expected over next two days. This activity is believed to be associated with a coronal hole. ----------------------------------------------------------- 3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY LATITUDE BAND DATE LOW MIDDLE HIGH 11 Feb normal fair fair-poor PCA Event : None. 3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST LATITUDE BAND DATE LOW MIDDLE HIGH 12 Feb normal fair poor 13 Feb normal fair poor 14 Feb normal fair poor Degraded HF comms conditions are expected during the period 12-14 February, at mid and high lats. ----------------------------------------------------------- 4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY Observed DATE T-index MUFs at Sydney 11 Feb 30 Near predicted monthly values, until local night when enhancements of up to 30% were observed. Depressions of up to 20% were observed after local dawn this morning. Predicted Monthly T-index for February: 15 4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST DATE T-index MUFs 12 Feb -15 About 15% below predicted monthly values 13 Feb -5 Depressed 10 to 15%/near predicted monthly values 14 Feb 15 Near predicted monthly values COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 5 was issued on 11 February and is current for interval 11-13 February. MUFs at Hobart, Townsville were near normal until local night last night when enhancements of 30% were observed. However, after local dawn depressions of 15-20% were observed at both sites. Degraded HF comms expected for 12-14 February. -- IPS Regional Warning Centre, Sydney |IPS Radio and Space Services RWC Duty Forecaster tel: +61 2 4148329 |PO Box 5606 Recorded Message tel: +61 2 4148330 |West Chatswood NSW 2057 email: rwc@ips.oz.au fax: +61 2 4148331 |AUSTRALIA