Newsgroups: aus.radio,ips.solar.activity,rec.radio.amateur.misc,rec.radio.info Path: news.cs.tut.fi!news.funet.fi!news.tele.fi!uunet!gatech!newsxfer.itd.umich.edu!caen!msunews!harbinger.cc.monash.edu.au!news.cs.su.oz.au!metro!ipso!rwc From: rwc@flare.syd.ips.oz.au (Regional Warning Centre) Subject: IPS Daily Report - 04 Febraury 95 Message-ID: <1995Feb4.233040.15115@ips.oz.au> Followup-To: aus.radio,rec.radio.amateur.misc Sender: news@ips.oz.au (Usenet News) Nntp-Posting-Host: flare.syd.ips.oz.au Organization: IPS Radio and Space Services. Sydney, Australia. Date: Sat, 4 Feb 1995 23:30:40 GMT Approved: rec-radio-info@ve6mgs.ampr.ab.ca Lines: 84 Xref: news.cs.tut.fi aus.radio:795 rec.radio.amateur.misc:67166 rec.radio.info:7640 SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT ISSUED AT 04/2330Z FEBRUARY 1995 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES FROM THE REGIONAL WARNING CENTRE (RWC), SYDNEY. SUMMARY FOR 04 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 05 FEBRUARY - 07 FEBRUARY ----------------------------------------------------------- 1A. SOLAR SUMMARY Activity: moderate Flares Max Fadeout Begin End Freq. Sectors M2/2B 1544UT possible lower South American/ Atlantic Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number : 86/29 GOES satellite data for 03 Feb Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.3E+06 Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04 Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.8E+08 (high) X-ray background: B1.1 Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day. 1B. SOLAR FORECAST 05 Feb 06 Feb 07 Feb Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected Forecast 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Feb: 80/20 ----------------------------------------------------------- 2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY Geomagnetic field: no data available for Learmonth. Global mid lat conditions were generally unsettled to active. Estimated Indices : A K Observed A Index 03 Feb Learmonth -- ---- ---- Fredericksburg 20 21 Planetary 20 20 Observed Kp for 03 Feb: 4443 4343 2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST DATE Ap CONDITIONS 05 Feb 20 Unsettled 06 Feb 45 Active to minor storm 07 Feb 35 Active to minor storm COMMENT: Flares observed 3-4 Feb are expected to contribute to the gemagnetic activity forecast for 6-8 Feb. ----------------------------------------------------------- 3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY LATITUDE BAND DATE LOW MIDDLE HIGH 04 Feb normal normal fair-normal PCA Event : None. 3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST LATITUDE BAND DATE LOW MIDDLE HIGH 05 Feb normal fair poor 06 Feb poor poor poor 07 Feb fair poor poor ----------------------------------------------------------- 4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY Observed DATE T-index MUFs at Sydney 04 Feb 12 near predicted monthly values Predicted Monthly T-index for February: 15 4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST DATE T-index MUFs 05 Feb 20 Near predicted monthly values 06 Feb -20 Depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values 07 Feb -40 15 to 30% below predicted monthly values COMMENT: Regular Sporadic E layer observed on 4 Feb is expected for 5 Feb. Townsville frequencies: mostly near predicted monthly values. Hobart frequencies: depressed 15-19UT. Degraded conditions are expected in association with geomagnetic activity forecast for 6-8 Feb. -- IPS Regional Warning Centre, Sydney |IPS Radio and Space Services RWC Duty Forecaster tel: +61 2 4148329 |PO Box 5606 Recorded Message tel: +61 2 4148330 |West Chatswood NSW 2057 email: rwc@ips.oz.au fax: +61 2 4148331 |AUSTRALIA