Newsgroups: aus.radio,ips.solar.activity,rec.radio.amateur.misc,rec.radio.info Path: news.cs.tut.fi!news.funet.fi!sunic!trane.uninett.no!ifi.uio.no!wabbit.cc.uow.edu.au!news.ci.com.au!metro!ipso!rwc From: rwc@flare.syd.ips.oz.au (Regional Warning Centre) Subject: IPS Daily Report - 03 Febraury 95 Message-ID: <1995Feb3.232734.827@ips.oz.au> Followup-To: aus.radio,rec.radio.amateur.misc Sender: news@ips.oz.au (Usenet News) Nntp-Posting-Host: flare.syd.ips.oz.au Organization: IPS Radio and Space Services. Sydney, Australia. Date: Fri, 3 Feb 1995 23:27:34 GMT Approved: rec-radio-info@ve6mgs.ampr.ab.ca Lines: 84 Xref: news.cs.tut.fi aus.radio:794 rec.radio.amateur.misc:67085 rec.radio.info:7625 SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT ISSUED AT 03/2330Z FEBRUARY 1995 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES FROM THE REGIONAL WARNING CENTRE (RWC), SYDNEY. SUMMARY FOR 03 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 04 FEBRUARY - 06 FEBRUARY ----------------------------------------------------------- 1A. SOLAR SUMMARY Activity: moderate Flares Max Fadeout Begin End Freq. Sectors M4/2B 0151UT confirmed 0152UT 0205UT lower E. Asia/Aust. Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number : 83/24 GOES satellite data for 02 Feb Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.5E+06 Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.6E+04 Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.9E+08 (high) X-ray background: B2.6 Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day. 1B. SOLAR FORECAST 04 Feb 05 Feb 06 Feb Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected Forecast 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Feb: 81/22 ----------------------------------------------------------- 2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY Geomagnetic field: no data available for Learmonth. Global conditions were generally unsettled to active. Estimated Indices : A K Observed A Index 02 Feb Learmonth -- ---- ---- Fredericksburg 20 22 Planetary 20 21 Observed Kp for 02 Feb: 3345 4433 2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST DATE Ap CONDITIONS 04 Feb 15 Unsettled 05 Feb 15 Unsettled 06 Feb 40 Active to minor storm COMMENT: Activity is expected to increase 6-8 Feb to active to minor storm levels due to a coronal mass ejection and associated re-orientation of solar magnetic fields. ----------------------------------------------------------- 3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY LATITUDE BAND DATE LOW MIDDLE HIGH 03 Feb normal normal normal PCA Event : None. 3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST LATITUDE BAND DATE LOW MIDDLE HIGH 04 Feb normal normal fair 05 Feb normal normal fair 06 Feb poor poor poor ----------------------------------------------------------- 4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY Observed DATE T-index MUFs at Sydney 03 Feb 23 near predicted monthly values Predicted Monthly T-index for February: 15 4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST DATE T-index MUFs 04 Feb 25 Near predicted monthly values 05 Feb 25 Near predicted monthly values 06 Feb -20 10 to 20% below predicted monthly values COMMENT: Daytime Sporadic E layer was observed on 3 Feb and is expected for 4 Feb. Townsville and Hobart frequencies were depressed at times during the first half of the day. Degraded conditions are expected in association with geomagnetic activity forecast for 6-8 Feb. -- IPS Regional Warning Centre, Sydney |IPS Radio and Space Services RWC Duty Forecaster tel: +61 2 4148329 |PO Box 5606 Recorded Message tel: +61 2 4148330 |West Chatswood NSW 2057 email: rwc@ips.oz.au fax: +61 2 4148331 |AUSTRALIA