Path: news.cs.tut.fi!news.funet.fi!sunic!pipex!howland.reston.ans.net!gatech!asuvax!ennews!stat!news From: oler@ultrix.uleth.ca (Cary Oler) Newsgroups: rec.radio.info Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 06 December Message-ID: <9412070536.AA14063@rho.uleth.ca> Date: Tue, 6 Dec 94 22:36:51 MST Sender: news@stat.com Approved: rec-radio-info@stat.com Lines: 210 /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\ DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY 06 DECEMBER, 1994 /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\ (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data) SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 06 DECEMBER, 1994 ------------------------------------------------------------ NOTE: The energetic electron fluence at greater than 2 MeV returned to normal levels today. !!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 340, 12/06/94 10.7 FLUX=078.5 90-AVG=082 SSN=016 BKI=1243 3432 BAI=014 BGND-XRAY=A2.9 FLU1=*.*E+** FLU10=1.1E+04 PKI=2253 3333 PAI=016 BOU-DEV=009,010,056,022,035,040,021,013 DEV-AVG=025 NT SWF=00:000 XRAY-MAX= B1.5 @ 0522UT XRAY-MIN= A2.6 @ 1710UT XRAY-AVG= A5.3 NEUTN-MAX= +002% @ 0915UT NEUTN-MIN= -002% @ 1900UT NEUTN-AVG= +0.0% PCA-MAX= +0.0DB @ 2355UT PCA-MIN= -0.3DB @ 1600UT PCA-AVG= -0.0DB BOUTF-MAX=55210NT @ 2359UT BOUTF-MIN=55180NT @ 1742UT BOUTF-AVG=55199NT GOES7-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT GOES7-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT G7-AVG=+062,+000,+000 GOES6-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT GOES6-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT G6-AVG=+000,+000,+000 FLUXFCST=STD:080,080,080;SESC:080,080,080 BAI/PAI-FCST=015,010,005/015,010,008 KFCST=2344 5322 2234 4322 27DAY-AP=014,013 27DAY-KP=2233 3334 2443 3222 WARNINGS= ALERTS= !!END-DATA!! NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 05 DEC 94 was 35.3. The Full Kp Indices for 05 DEC 94 are: 1+ 1- 1+ 3o 3- 2- 1o 2- The 3-Hr Ap Indices for 05 DEC 94 are: 5 3 5 14 12 6 4 6 Greater than 2 MeV Electron Fluence for 06 DEC is: 6.8E+06 DRAO 10.7 cm Solar Radio Flux at 18Z, 20Z, 22Z: 77.1, 78.5, N/A sfu. SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY -------------------- Solar activity was very low. Region 7813 (S08E39) remains the sole spotted region visible. Solar activity forecast: solar activity is expected to be low. The geomagnetic field varied from quiet to minor storm levels, with the most disturbed times associated with local nighttime substorms. A recurrent coronal hole, not geoeffective in past rotations, may be the source of the current low-level disturbance. Geophysical activity forecast: the geomagnetic field is expected to be predominantly unsettled to active the next 24 hours, with episodes of minor storm possible during local nighttimes. Quiet to unsettled conditions should prevail by the end of the interval. Event probabilities 07 dec-09 dec Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF Green Geomagnetic activity probabilities 07 dec-09 dec A. Middle Latitudes Active 35/35/20 Minor Storm 25/20/10 Major-Severe Storm 10/05/01 B. High Latitudes Active 40/35/25 Minor Storm 30/30/20 Major-Severe Storm 10/05/05 HF propagation conditions were near-normal from the low to central middle latitudes. Upper middle latitudes experienced slightly below-normal propagation due to enhanced isolated periods of high and polar latitude geomagnetic and auroral activity. High and polar latitudes were near-normal for daylit paths and below-normal on night-sector paths. Paths most heavily affected were night-sector transauroral circuits. Similar conditions may be experienced on 07 December before gradually improving to near-normal over all regions by 09 Dec. ENERGETIC ELECTRON FLUENCE 60-DAY HISTORY AT GREATER THAN 2 MEV ------!-----------------+--------!--------------------+----- 2.00E+09|.V....+............... .........+................ .......|V. HIGH 1.17E+09|.V....+............... .........+................ .......|V. HIGH 6.85E+08|.HH...+...........HHH. HH.......+................ .......|High 4.01E+08|MMM...+.........M.MMM. MM.......+................ .......|Moderate 2.35E+08|MMM...+.........MMMMM. MMMM.....+................ ...MM..| 1.38E+08|MMMM..+.........MMMMM. MMMM.....+................ MMMMMM.| 8.05E+07|MMMMM.+.........MMMMM. MMMMM....+................ MMMMMM.| 4.71E+07|NNNNN.+.........NNNNN. NNNNN....+............N... NNNNNN.|Normal 2.76E+07|NNNNN.+...N....NNNNNN. NNNNN.NN.+..........NNN... NNNNNN.| 1.62E+07|NNNNN.+.NNN.N..NNNNNNN NNNNNNNNN+.........NNNNN.. NNNNNN.| 9.47E+06|NNNNN.nNNNN.N..NNNNNNN NNNNNNNNN+NNNN.....NNNNN.. NNNNNN.| 5.55E+06|NNNNNNnNNNNNN..NNNNNNN NNNNNNNNNnNNNN..N..NNNNNN. NNNNNNN| 3.25E+06|NNNNNNnNNNNNN..NNNNNNN NNNNNNNNNnNNNNNNNN.NNNNNN. NNNNNNN| 1.91E+06|NNNNNNnNNNNNNNNNNNNNNN NNNNNNNNNnNNNNNNNN.NNNNNNN NNNNNNN| 1.12E+06|NNNNNNnNNNNNNNNNNNNNNN NNNNNNNNNnNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNN NNNNNNN| 6.60E+05|NNNNNNnNNNNNNNNNNNNNNN NNNNNNNNNnNNNNNNNNNNNNNNNN NNNNNNN| ------!-----------------+--------!--------------------+----- Nov Dec NOTES: "V" = Very High Fluence, "H" = High Fluence, etc, " " = No Data, "!" = Solar rotational boundary periods from current date. Electron fluence is flux integrated over time in units of cm^-2 day^-1 sr^-1 as measured by GOES-7. Fluence values that are moderate or higher have been correlated with satellite anomalies. Sustained high to very high fluence has been correlated with serious malfunctions. COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS ======================================================== REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 06/2400Z DECEMBER ----------------------------------------------------------- NMBR LOCATION LO AREA Z LL NN MAG TYPE 7813 S08E39 280 0050 DSO 08 006 BETA REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 07 DECEMBER TO 09 DECEMBER NMBR LAT LO NONE LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 06 DECEMBER, 1994 ------------------------------------------------------- A. ENERGETIC EVENTS: BEGIN MAX END RGN LOC XRAY OP 245MHZ 10CM SWEEP NONE POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 06 DECEMBER, 1994 ----------------------------------------------------------- BEGIN MAX END LOCATION TYPE SIZE DUR II IV 06/ 0800 0831 0904 LDE B1.2 64 06/B0800 A1034 S10E52 DSF 06/A1205 B1225 S09E45 DSF INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 06/2400Z --------------------------------------------------- ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS EAST SOUTH WEST NORTH CAR TYPE POL AREA OBSN NO DATA SUMMARY OF FLARE EVENTS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY ------------------------------------------------ Date Begin Max End Xray Op Region Locn 2695 MHz 8800 MHz 15.4 GHz ------ ---- ---- ---- ---- -- ------ ------ --------- --------- --------- 05 Dec: 0219 0231 0246 B3.5 0251 0255 0308 B3.6 0310 0339 0353 B6.5 0520 0520 0524 SF 7813 S11E57 0557 0607 0621 B2.9 1107 1120 1128 B2.0 1227 1228 1230 SF 7813 S07E64 1516 1528 1539 C1.0 2337 2346 2356 B3.1 REGION FLARE STATISTICS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY ------------------------------------------------ C M X S 1 2 3 4 Total (%) -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --- ------ Region 7813: 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 002 (22.2) Uncorrellated: 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 007 (77.8) Total Events: 009 optical and x-ray. EVENTS WITH SWEEPS AND/OR OPTICAL PHENOMENA FOR THE LAST UTC DAY ---------------------------------------------------------------- Date Begin Max End Xray Op Region Locn Sweeps/Optical Observations ------ ---- ---- ---- ---- -- ------ ------ --------------------------- NO EVENTS OBSERVED. NOTES: All times are in Universal Time (UT). Characters preceding begin, max, and end times are defined as: B = Before, U = Uncertain, A = After. All times associated with x-ray flares (ex. flares which produce associated x-ray bursts) refer to the begin, max, and end times of the x-rays. Flares which are not associated with x-ray signatures use the optical observations to determine the begin, max, and end times. Acronyms used to identify sweeps and optical phenomena include: II = Type II Sweep Frequency Event III = Type III Sweep IV = Type IV Sweep V = Type V Sweep Continuum = Continuum Radio Event Loop = Loop Prominence System, Spray = Limb Spray, Surge = Bright Limb Surge, EPL = Eruptive Prominence on the Limb. ** End of Daily Report **