Newsgroups: aus.radio,ips.solar.activity,rec.radio.amateur.misc,rec.radio.info Path: news.cs.tut.fi!news.funet.fi!sunic!trane.uninett.no!nntp.uio.no!ifi.uio.no!wabbit.cc.uow.edu.au!metro!ipso!rwc From: rwc@flare.syd.ips.oz.au (Regional Warning Centre) Subject: IPS Daily Report - 19 October 94 Message-ID: <1994Oct19.233503.7856@ips.oz.au> Followup-To: aus.radio,rec.radio.amateur.misc Sender: news@ips.oz.au (Usenet News) Nntp-Posting-Host: flare.syd.ips.oz.au Organization: IPS Radio and Space Services. Sydney, Australia. Date: Wed, 19 Oct 1994 23:35:03 GMT Approved: rec-radio-info@ve6mgs.ampr.ab.ca Lines: 78 Xref: news.cs.tut.fi aus.radio:651 rec.radio.amateur.misc:60613 rec.radio.info:6584 SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT ISSUED AT 19/2330Z OCTOBER 1994 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES FROM THE REGIONAL WARNING CENTRE (RWC), SYDNEY. SUMMARY FOR 19 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 20 OCTOBER - 22 OCTOBER ----------------------------------------------------------- 1A. SOLAR SUMMARY Activity: moderate Flares Max Fadeout Begin End Freq. Sectors M3/-- 2127UT none Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number : 91/36 GOES satellite data for 18 Oct Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.1E+05 Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 9.4E+03 Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.0E+07 (normal) X-ray background: B1.7 Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day. 1B. SOLAR FORECAST 20 Oct 21 Oct 22 Oct Activity Low Low Low Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected Forecast 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Oct: 93/38 ----------------------------------------------------------- 2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY Geomagnetic field at Learmonth: quiet to unsettled Estimated Indices : A K Observed A Index 18 Oct Learmonth 10 2211 3333 Fredericksburg 7 3 Planetary 5 4 Observed Kp for 18 Oct: 1101 1112 2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST DATE Ap CONDITIONS 20 Oct 10 Quiet to unsettled 21 Oct 12 Quiet to unsettled 22 Oct 10 Quiet to unsettled ----------------------------------------------------------- 3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY LATITUDE BAND DATE LOW MIDDLE HIGH 19 Oct normal normal normal PCA Event : None. 3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST LATITUDE BAND DATE LOW MIDDLE HIGH 20 Oct normal normal normal 21 Oct normal normal normal 22 Oct normal normal normal ----------------------------------------------------------- 4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY Observed DATE T-index MUFs at Sydney 19 Oct 35 near predicted monthly values, with 15-30% enhanced during local night. Predicted Monthly T-index for October: 20 4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST DATE T-index MUFs 20 Oct 30 Near predicted monthly values to 20% enhanced. 21 Oct 25 Near predicted monthly values 22 Oct 20 Near predicted monthly values -- IPS Regional Warning Centre, Sydney |IPS Radio and Space Services RWC Duty Forecaster tel: +61 2 4148329 |PO Box 5606 Recorded Message tel: +61 2 4148330 |West Chatswood NSW 2057 email: rwc@ips.oz.au fax: +61 2 4148331 |AUSTRALIA