Newsgroups: aus.radio,ips.solar.activity,rec.radio.amateur.misc,rec.radio.info Path: news.cs.tut.fi!news.funet.fi!sunic!pipex!howland.reston.ans.net!europa.eng.gtefsd.com!aggedor.rmit.EDU.AU!harbinger.cc.monash.edu.au!news.cs.su.oz.au!metro!ipso!rwc From: rwc@flare.syd.ips.oz.au (Regional Warning Centre) Subject: IPS Daily Report - 16 October 94 Message-ID: <1994Oct17.020646.7837@ips.oz.au> Followup-To: aus.radio,rec.radio.amateur.misc Sender: news@ips.oz.au (Usenet News) Nntp-Posting-Host: flare.syd.ips.oz.au Organization: IPS Radio and Space Services. Sydney, Australia. Date: Mon, 17 Oct 1994 02:06:46 GMT Approved: rec-radio-info@ve6mgs.ampr.ab.ca Lines: 76 Xref: news.cs.tut.fi aus.radio:646 rec.radio.amateur.misc:60445 rec.radio.info:6562 SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT ISSUED AT 16/2330Z OCTOBER 1994 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES FROM THE REGIONAL WARNING CENTRE (RWC), SYDNEY. SUMMARY FOR 16 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 17 OCTOBER - 19 OCTOBER ----------------------------------------------------------- 1A. SOLAR SUMMARY Activity: very low Flares: none. Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number : 91/36 GOES satellite data for 15 Oct Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.2E+05 Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 9.8E+03 Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.2E+07 (normal) X-ray background: B1.3 Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day. 1B. SOLAR FORECAST 17 Oct 18 Oct 19 Oct Activity Low Low Low Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected Forecast 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Oct: 90/34 ----------------------------------------------------------- 2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY Geomagnetic field at Learmonth: quiet to unsettled Estimated Indices : A K Observed A Index 15 Oct Learmonth 7 2313 2111 Fredericksburg 6 9 Planetary 7 11 Observed Kp for 15 Oct: 3333 3122 2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST DATE Ap CONDITIONS 17 Oct 8 Quiet 18 Oct 10 Quiet to unsettled 19 Oct 8 Quiet ----------------------------------------------------------- 3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY LATITUDE BAND DATE LOW MIDDLE HIGH 16 Oct normal normal normal PCA Event : None. 3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST LATITUDE BAND DATE LOW MIDDLE HIGH 17 Oct normal normal normal 18 Oct normal normal normal 19 Oct normal normal normal ----------------------------------------------------------- 4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY Observed DATE T-index MUFs at Sydney 16 Oct 18 near predicted monthly values Predicted Monthly T-index for October: 20 4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST DATE T-index MUFs 17 Oct 18 Near predicted monthly values 18 Oct 20 Near predicted monthly values 19 Oct 20 Near predicted monthly values -- IPS Regional Warning Centre, Sydney |IPS Radio and Space Services RWC Duty Forecaster tel: +61 2 4148329 |PO Box 5606 Recorded Message tel: +61 2 4148330 |West Chatswood NSW 2057 email: rwc@ips.oz.au fax: +61 2 4148331 |AUSTRALIA