Path: news.cs.tut.fi!news.funet.fi!sunic!trane.uninett.no!eunet.no!nuug!EU.net!uunet!gatech!asuvax!ennews!stat!david Newsgroups: rec.radio.info Message-ID: <9410161902.AA28829@rho.uleth.ca> From: oler@ultrix.uleth.ca (Cary Oler) Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 14 October Date: Sun, 16 Oct 94 13:02:18 MDT Approved: rec-radio-info@stat.com Sender: news Lines: 252 /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\ DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY 14 OCTOBER, 1994 /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\ (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data) SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 14 OCTOBER, 1994 ----------------------------------------------------------- !!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 287, 10/14/94 10.7 FLUX=092.6 90-AVG=078 SSN=088 BKI=2211 1212 BAI=005 BGND-XRAY=B1.6 FLU1=2.7E+05 FLU10=1.0E+04 PKI=3213 2222 PAI=008 BOU-DEV=019,014,006,-6112,009,015,009,015 DEV-AVG=012 NT SWF=00:000 XRAY-MAX= C2.6 @ 2347UT XRAY-MIN= B1.3 @ 0116UT XRAY-AVG= B2.3 NEUTN-MAX= +000% @ 0000UT NEUTN-MIN= +000% @ 0000UT NEUTN-AVG= +0.0% PCA-MAX= +0.0DB @ 0000UT PCA-MIN= +0.0DB @ 0000UT PCA-AVG= +0.0DB BOUTF-MAX=55214NT @ 2147UT BOUTF-MIN=55192NT @ 1727UT BOUTF-AVG=55206NT GOES7-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT GOES7-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT G7-AVG=+072,+000,+000 GOES6-MAX=P:+131NT@ 2041UT GOES6-MIN=N:-014NT@ 1621UT G6-AVG=+106,+019,+008 FLUXFCST=STD:092,092,090;SESC:092,092,090 BAI/PAI-FCST=005,005,005/010,010,010 KFCST=1104 4011 1104 4011 27DAY-AP=009,005 27DAY-KP=2333 1312 2221 1111 WARNINGS=*SWF ALERTS= !!END-DATA!! NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 13 OCT 94 was 18.2. The Full Kp Indices for 13 OCT 94 are: 3- 3- 3+ 4- 2o 3- 3- 3- The 3-Hr Ap Indices for 13 OCT 94 are: 11 13 18 22 8 12 12 13 Greater than 2 MeV Electron Fluence for 14 OCT is: 1.2E+07 SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY -------------------- Solar activity was very low. Region 7790 (N12E42) continued to produce small subflares. This sunspot group has noticeably decayed since yesterday. Region 7789 (N09E05) continues to decay slowly. Solar activity forecast: solar activity is expected to be low. C-class (or isolated M-class) flares are possible in Region 7790, if its rate of decay increases. The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. Geophysical activity forecast: the geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet at middle latitudes and quiet to unsettled at high latitudes for the the next three days. Event probabilities 15 oct-17 oct Class M 10/10/05 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF Green Geomagnetic activity probabilities 15 oct-17 oct A. Middle Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 05/05/05 Major-Severe Storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 05/05/05 Major-Severe Storm 01/01/01 HF propagation conditions were normal over all regions. Normal propagation should persist through 17 October inclusive. STD ESTIMATED CORONAL HOLE BOUNDARY LOCATIONS DERIVED FROM YOHKOH X-RAYS ------------------------------------------------------------------------ VALID AT 09:50UTC 14OCT95 "!H!" = Highly probable coronal hole locations. "!W!" = Weak x-ray emissions (possible weak coronal holes). !!! ! ! DOY=287 VALID=09:50UTC 14OCT95 !H! N62E90 N60E47 N60E31 N57E27 N56E19 N58E13 N56E09 N51E07 N51E03 !H! N57E01 N64W06 N67W10 N65W19 N69W40 N69W47 N66W62 N66W90 ! ! !H! S66E90 S60E30 S60E16 S53E08 S52E02 S50W04 S50W17 S42W25 S38W32 !H! S32W38 S26W52 S24W57 S26W71 S26W78 S32W69 S40W57 S45W50 S41W37 S46W35 !H! S56W37 S63W40 S70W90 ! ! !W! S33E25 S35E15 S36E05 S38W01 S44W03 S50W01 S52E08 S56E12 S58E17 !W! S58E29 S50E34 S42E42 S38E52 S34E48 S33E25 ! ! !W! N48E02 N51E03 N56E01 N46W14 N40W25 N37W24 N35W18 N28W24 N20W20 !W! N16W12 N25W08 N20W02 N20E03 N28E05 N34E02 N35W06 N39W06 N40E01 N40E03 !W! N44E01 N48E02 !!! Use the IBM compatible software "SHOWHOLE.EXE" available through anonymous FTP at "ftp.uleth.ca" in the "pub/solar/Software" directory, or on our computer BBS at 403-756-3008 in the Utilities directory to display these boundary locations on-screen. COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS ======================================================== REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 14/2400Z OCTOBER ---------------------------------------------------------- NMBR LOCATION LO AREA Z LL NN MAG TYPE 7787 N08W54 351 0010 AXX 02 002 ALPHA 7788 S01W38 335 0020 BXO 05 010 BETA 7789 N09E05 292 0140 CSO 12 007 BETA 7790 N12E42 255 0460 EKI 13 029 BETA REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 15 OCTOBER TO 17 OCTOBER NMBR LAT LO NONE LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 14 OCTOBER, 1994 ------------------------------------------------------ BEGIN MAX END RGN LOC XRAY OP 245MHZ 10CM SWEEP 1420 1420 1422 590 POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 14 OCTOBER, 1994 ---------------------------------------------------------- BEGIN MAX END LOCATION TYPE SIZE DUR II IV NO EVENTS OBSERVED INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 14/2400Z --------------------------------------------------- ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS EAST SOUTH WEST NORTH CAR TYPE POL AREA OBSN NO DATA SUMMARY OF FLARE EVENTS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY ------------------------------------------------ Date Begin Max End Xray Op Region Locn 2695 MHz 8800 MHz 15.4 GHz ------ ---- ---- ---- ---- -- ------ ------ --------- --------- --------- 13 Oct: 0041 0049 0054 B9.7 0442 0446 0452 B5.4 0703 0708 0712 B5.2 0828 0828 0835 SF 7789 N11E27 0957 1004 1011 B3.1 SF 7790 N14E67 1243 1255 1300 B1.6 1444 1501 1508 B6.4 SF 7790 N10E61 1509 1509 1538 SF 7788 S02W18 1522 1531 1539 SF 7790 N10E61 1603 1621 1633 B3.7 SF 7787 N07W32 1935 1942 1953 B4.5 SF 7790 N12E60 REGION FLARE STATISTICS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY ------------------------------------------------ C M X S 1 2 3 4 Total (%) -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --- ------ Region 7787: 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 001 ( 9.1) Region 7788: 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 001 ( 9.1) Region 7789: 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 001 ( 9.1) Region 7790: 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 0 004 (36.4) Uncorrellated: 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 004 (36.4) Total Events: 011 optical and x-ray. EVENTS WITH SWEEPS AND/OR OPTICAL PHENOMENA FOR THE LAST UTC DAY ---------------------------------------------------------------- Date Begin Max End Xray Op Region Locn Sweeps/Optical Observations ------ ---- ---- ---- ---- -- ------ ------ --------------------------- NO EVENTS OBSERVED. NOTES: All times are in Universal Time (UT). Characters preceding begin, max, and end times are defined as: B = Before, U = Uncertain, A = After. All times associated with x-ray flares (ex. flares which produce associated x-ray bursts) refer to the begin, max, and end times of the x-rays. Flares which are not associated with x-ray signatures use the optical observations to determine the begin, max, and end times. Acronyms used to identify sweeps and optical phenomena include: II = Type II Sweep Frequency Event III = Type III Sweep IV = Type IV Sweep V = Type V Sweep Continuum = Continuum Radio Event Loop = Loop Prominence System, Spray = Limb Spray, Surge = Bright Limb Surge, EPL = Eruptive Prominence on the Limb. SPECIAL INSERT: YOHKOH FULL-DISK X-RAY IMAGE -------------------------------------------- 14 October 1994, 09:50 UTC North ....... . . . .......,,,,,. . ......,,,,,,,,. .......... .....,,,,:::;::::,,,.... . . . ..,,,,,,,,,... ....,,,::;:::::,::,,,.......... .. . ...,,,,::,,,.... . ...,,::::;:,,,,,,,,...,......,.... ..... .......,:::,,,... ....,,:::;;:;,,,,,,,,....,,,,:,,..... .. ........,,,,:,,..... ..,,::;;-;:,:,,,,::,,,,,,,............... .. . ......,,,,,,:,,... ..,,::;;-;;;:;:,:::,,::,,,,,......,... .... ......,,,,,,,,,.... .,,:;-++-;---+--;;::::,,,,.,......... .. .,,...,.,,,.,::,... ..,,:;-+|||!1121|+-;;::::,,,.,..,,,,.. . .........,,,,,,,:,,,,,;:,. ..,::;-+|1!24**42|+-;;::::,,,:::::;,,......... .....,,,,:::::,,,,,,::,.. .,,::;+||!!3*#@@2!+-;;;:;::;;+!!|++;,,:,,,,,,........,,,:::;;+!!-:::,,,,::,.. ..,::-+|+|!3*@@@3|+---;;;;;;;--1*31-::::::,,,,,,..,,,,,::;;-+1#4|-;:::,:::,,... .,,:;-+++|111221!|+;;;;:;;;;;;-1331-:;:::,,,:,,:,,,::,:;--++|!!|+--;:::,:;:,... .,,:;-+|-+|!!!!|+--;:::::;;;--;||+;:;::::::,,,,,,,,;;;-+22!|+-+---;;::,,;-:,,,, ..,:;+12+;;-----;;;::,,::;;;;--;;;::::::,,,:,,,,,,:;;-|132+;;;;;;::;;:::++;::,, ..,:;-+|;::::::::::,,,,,,::;:;;::::,,,,,,,,:,,,,,,,:;+---;;;;;:;,,,::,,:|-;::,, ..,:;;-;::::::::::::,::;-;:,::::,,,......,,,,,,,,,,;--;::::,,,...,:::;-+;::,,, ..,,,:;;;;::::,::,::::;|!!;:,,,,..........,,,,,,,,..:::,,.,,.....,;;;;;;;::,,.. ...,,:::;;;::::,,,,,,::;+||-;,,,..........,,,,,,............. .,::::;;;::,,.. ..,,,:::;;::,,,,,,,,,,,,:;;;:,,,,,... .,..,.......... .. ,::::,,,.. ...,,,,:::::,,,.,..........,::,,,... .......... . . .:::,,,.... ....,,,,:::::,,... .. ..... ....... . ,:::,,,... .....,,,,:::::,,.... .. ...,::,,,... .....,,,,:::::,...... .. . . ..,::::,,,... ....,,,,:::;;:,,.... ..,,,:;;:::,,.... ....,,:,::,:,,.. . ...,::::::,,,..... .. ... South KEY: East and west limbs are to the left and right respectively. Emission strength, from minimum to maximum are coded in the following way: [space] . , : ; - + | ! 1 2 3 4 * # @ Units used are arbitrary, for illustrative purposes. Get "showasc.zip" from "pub/solar/Software" at the anonymous FTP site: ftp.uleth.ca (IP # 142.66.3.29) to view these images on VGA screens. Remove all but the image data before typing "showasc filename". ** End of Daily Report **