Path: news.cs.tut.fi!news.funet.fi!news.eunet.fi!news.spb.su!KremlSun!kiae!relcom!demos1!news.uni-stuttgart.de!news.belwue.de!News.Uni-Marburg.DE!news.th-darmstadt.de!fauern!gs.dfn.de!news.dkrz.de!dscomsa.desy.de!CERN.ch!EU.net!howland.reston.ans.net!news.sprintlink.net!news.primenet.com!stat!david Newsgroups: rec.radio.info Message-ID: <9410120435.AA03049@rho.uleth.ca> From: oler@ultrix.uleth.ca (Cary Oler) Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 09 October Date: Tue, 11 Oct 94 22:35:06 MDT Approved: rec-radio-info@stat.com Sender: news Lines: 186 From: oler@ultrix.uleth.ca (Cary Oler) Message-Id: <9410120435.AA03049@rho.uleth.ca> Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 09 October Date: Tue, 11 Oct 94 22:35:06 MDT /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\ DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY 09 OCTOBER, 1994 /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\ (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data) SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 09 OCTOBER, 1994 ----------------------------------------------------------- NOTE: The energetic electron fluence at greater than 2 MeV increased to very high levels today. !!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 282, 10/09/94 10.7 FLUX=087 90-AVG=078 SSN=073 BKI=3333 2221 BAI=010 BGND-XRAY=B1.1 FLU1=1.4E+06 FLU10=1.2E+04 PKI=3333 2232 PAI=012 BOU-DEV=020,031,039,023,010,012,17568,006 DEV-AVG=2213 NT SWF=00:000 XRAY-MAX= C7.3 @ 1624UT XRAY-MIN= A8.1 @ 0700UT XRAY-AVG= B2.0 NEUTN-MAX= +002% @ 1625UT NEUTN-MIN= -001% @ 1810UT NEUTN-AVG= +0.2% PCA-MAX= +0.1DB @ 1545UT PCA-MIN= -0.2DB @ 1740UT PCA-AVG= -0.0DB BOUTF-MAX=55216NT @ 0314UT BOUTF-MIN=55181NT @ 1846UT BOUTF-AVG=55205NT GOES7-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT GOES7-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT G7-AVG=+065,+000,+000 GOES6-MAX=P:+115NT@ 1845UT GOES6-MIN=N:-021NT@ 1540UT G6-AVG=+093,+024,+004 FLUXFCST=STD:088,089,087;SESC:088,089,087 BAI/PAI-FCST=010,010,010/012,010,010 KFCST=3233 3223 2223 3321 27DAY-AP=010,012 27DAY-KP=2124 3322 2343 2323 WARNINGS= ALERTS= !!END-DATA!! NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 08 OCT 94 was 17.0. The Full Kp Indices for 08 OCT 94 are: 3o 4o 4- 4o 3- 3- 3- 3- The 3-Hr Ap Indices for 08 OCT 94 are: 16 28 24 28 13 12 14 13 Greater than 2 MeV Electron Fluence for 09 OCT is: 2.0E+09 SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY -------------------- Solar activity was low. Region 7785 (S09W59) produced a C7/1N flare at 09/1623Z. Prior to this event, Region 7785 began a growth phase and a weak delta may be forming in the southern part of the sunspot region. This region also produced a B4/SF flare at 09/0641Z that was accompanied by a moderate intensity (slow speed) Type II. New Region 7789 (N09E71) showed itself as a moderate area class C sunspot group. The spots in this group are not tightly clustered. Solar activity forecast: solar activity should be mostly low. Region 7785 is the likely source of C-class flares. Should growth continue and magnetic complexity increase, an isolated M-class flare is possible from this region. The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. A few high latitude sites experienced brief periods of storming. The energetic electron fluxes remained at a high level. STD: Overall electron fluence levels at greater than 2 MeV were at very high levels today at geosynchronous altitudes. Geophysical activity forecast: the geomagnetic field should continue at quiet to unsettled levels for the next three days. Event probabilities 10 oct-12 oct Class M 25/25/25 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF Green Geomagnetic activity probabilities 10 oct-12 oct A. Middle Latitudes Active 25/15/20 Minor Storm 05/01/05 Major-Severe Storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 30/20/25 Minor Storm 05/05/05 Major-Severe Storm 01/01/01 HF propagation conditions were slightly below normal over all regions but particularly for transpolar and transauroral circuits. There may have been a weak SWF associated with todays C7 flare at 16:23 UTC. Frequencies as high as 12 MHz may have been affected. Improving conditions should continue over the next 72 hours. COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS ======================================================== REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 09/2400Z OCTOBER ---------------------------------------------------------- NMBR LOCATION LO AREA Z LL NN MAG TYPE 7784 S07W48 051 0080 HSX 02 001 ALPHA 7785 S09W60 063 0060 CAI 06 013 BETA 7787 N09E15 348 0080 DAO 07 016 BETA 7789 N09E70 293 0160 CSO 08 003 BETA REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 10 OCTOBER TO 12 OCTOBER NMBR LAT LO NONE LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 09 OCTOBER, 1994 ------------------------------------------------------ BEGIN MAX END RGN LOC XRAY OP 245MHZ 10CM SWEEP 0637 0641 0644 7785 S11W46 B4.2 SF 120 61 II 1610 1623 1627 7785 S11W54 C7.3 1N 970 POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 09 OCTOBER, 1994 ---------------------------------------------------------- BEGIN MAX END LOCATION TYPE SIZE DUR II IV 09/0642 0651 S11W46 RSP B4.2 7 2 INFERRED CORONAL HOLES: LOCATIONS VALID AT 09/2400Z --------------------------------------------------- ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS EAST SOUTH WEST NORTH CAR TYPE POL AREA OBSN 08 S10E21 S32E18 S21W18 S05E11 359 ISO NEG 012 10830A 09 S18W22 S20W24 S05W37 N01W26 035 ISO NEG 004 10830A SUMMARY OF FLARE EVENTS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY ------------------------------------------------ Date Begin Max End Xray Op Region Locn 2695 MHz 8800 MHz 15.4 GHz ------ ---- ---- ---- ---- -- ------ ------ --------- --------- --------- 08 Oct: 1120 1141 1151 B2.3 SF 7788 S02E53 1744 1757 1808 B1.9 2018 2031 2049 B2.3 2247 2253 2259 B4.6 REGION FLARE STATISTICS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY ------------------------------------------------ C M X S 1 2 3 4 Total (%) -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --- ------ Region 7788: 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 001 (25.0) Uncorrellated: 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 003 (75.0) Total Events: 004 optical and x-ray. EVENTS WITH SWEEPS AND/OR OPTICAL PHENOMENA FOR THE LAST UTC DAY ---------------------------------------------------------------- Date Begin Max End Xray Op Region Locn Sweeps/Optical Observations ------ ---- ---- ---- ---- -- ------ ------ --------------------------- NO EVENTS OBSERVED. NOTES: All times are in Universal Time (UT). Characters preceding begin, max, and end times are defined as: B = Before, U = Uncertain, A = After. All times associated with x-ray flares (ex. flares which produce associated x-ray bursts) refer to the begin, max, and end times of the x-rays. Flares which are not associated with x-ray signatures use the optical observations to determine the begin, max, and end times. Acronyms used to identify sweeps and optical phenomena include: II = Type II Sweep Frequency Event III = Type III Sweep IV = Type IV Sweep V = Type V Sweep Continuum = Continuum Radio Event Loop = Loop Prominence System, Spray = Limb Spray, Surge = Bright Limb Surge, EPL = Eruptive Prominence on the Limb. ** End of Daily Report **