Newsgroups: aus.radio,ips.solar.activity,rec.radio.amateur.misc,rec.radio.info Path: news.cs.tut.fi!news.funet.fi!sunic!trane.uninett.no!ifi.uio.no!wabbit.cc.uow.edu.au!news.ci.com.au!metro!ipso!rwc From: rwc@flare.syd.ips.oz.au (Regional Warning Centre) Subject: IPS Daily Report - 30 September 94 Message-ID: <1994Sep30.232543.25688@ips.oz.au> Followup-To: aus.radio,rec.radio.amateur.misc Sender: news@ips.oz.au (Usenet News) Nntp-Posting-Host: flare.syd.ips.oz.au Organization: IPS Radio and Space Services. Sydney, Australia. Date: Fri, 30 Sep 1994 23:25:43 GMT Approved: rec-radio-info@ve6mgs.ampr.ab.ca Lines: 82 Xref: news.cs.tut.fi aus.radio:620 rec.radio.amateur.misc:59582 rec.radio.info:6362 SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT ISSUED AT 30/2330Z SEPTEMBER 1994 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES FROM THE REGIONAL WARNING CENTRE (RWC), SYDNEY. SUMMARY FOR 30 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 01 OCTOBER - 03 OCTOBER ----------------------------------------------------------- 1A. SOLAR SUMMARY Activity: very low Flares: none. Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number : 74/11 GOES satellite data for 29 Sep Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.2E+05 Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.4E+04 Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.8E+07 (normal) X-ray background: A2.6 Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day. 1B. SOLAR FORECAST 01 Oct 02 Oct 03 Oct Activity Very low Very low Very low Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected Forecast 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Oct: 75/13 ----------------------------------------------------------- 2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY Geomagnetic field at Learmonth: quiet Estimated Indices : A K Observed A Index 29 Sep Learmonth 4 2122 1111 Fredericksburg 5 7 Planetary 5 7 Observed Kp for 29 Sep: 2232 1111 2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST DATE Ap CONDITIONS 01 Oct 8 Quiet 02 Oct 8 Quiet 03 Oct 8 Quiet to unsettled COMMENT: Minor storm levels are expected 4-5 October due to coronal hole. ----------------------------------------------------------- 3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY LATITUDE BAND DATE LOW MIDDLE HIGH 30 Sep normal normal normal PCA Event : None. 3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST LATITUDE BAND DATE LOW MIDDLE HIGH 01 Oct normal normal fair 02 Oct normal normal fair 03 Oct normal normal fair COMMENT: HF Comms are expected to be degraded during interval 5-6 October, particularly at high lats. ----------------------------------------------------------- 4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY Observed DATE T-index MUFs at Sydney 30 Sep 25 near predicted monthly values Predicted Monthly T-index for September: 20 4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST DATE T-index MUFs 01 Oct 25 Near predicted monthly values 02 Oct 25 Near predicted monthly values 03 Oct 25 Near predicted monthly values COMMENT: Degraded HF comms expected 5-6 October due to anticipated coronal hole induced disturbance. Ionospheric response to anticipated magnetic activity may be stronger during this rotation due to change of season. -- IPS Regional Warning Centre, Sydney |IPS Radio and Space Services RWC Duty Forecaster tel: +61 2 4148329 |PO Box 5606 Recorded Message tel: +61 2 4148330 |West Chatswood NSW 2057 email: rwc@ips.oz.au fax: +61 2 4148331 |AUSTRALIA