Lines: 180 Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 04 September Followup-To: rec.radio.amateur.misc,rec.radio.shortwave Approved: rec-radio-info@ve6mgs.ampr.ab.ca Path: news.cs.tut.fi!news.funet.fi!sunic!trane.uninett.no!eunet.no!nuug!EU.net!howland.reston.ans.net!agate!library.ucla.edu!psgrain!nntp.cs.ubc.ca!unixg.ubc.ca!quartz.ucs.ualberta.ca!alberta!ve6mgs!usenet Date: Mon, 5 Sep 1994 11:30:26 MDT From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler) Newsgroups: rec.radio.amateur.misc,rec.radio.shortwave,rec.radio.info Message-ID: <9409051730.AA17656@rho.uleth.ca> Xref: news.cs.tut.fi rec.radio.amateur.misc:58205 rec.radio.shortwave:35949 rec.radio.info:6099 /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\ DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY 04 SEPTEMBER, 1994 /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\ (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data) SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 04 SEPTEMBER, 1994 ------------------------------------------------------------- !!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 247, 09/04/94 10.7 FLUX=094 90-AVG=079 SSN=086 BKI=0011 1220 BAI=002 BGND-XRAY=B1.2 FLU1=2.7E+05 FLU10=1.6E+04 PKI=2111 1212 PAI=004 BOU-DEV=004,004,006,005,006,014,010,004 DEV-AVG=006 NT SWF=00:000 XRAY-MAX= B6.8 @ 0041UT XRAY-MIN= A9.2 @ 2121UT XRAY-AVG= B1.6 NEUTN-MAX= +003% @ 1215UT NEUTN-MIN= -001% @ 2250UT NEUTN-AVG= +0.4% PCA-MAX= +0.1DB @ 1825UT PCA-MIN= -0.4DB @ 1330UT PCA-AVG= -0.0DB BOUTF-MAX=55221NT @ 1355UT BOUTF-MIN=55196NT @ 1922UT BOUTF-AVG=55212NT GOES7-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT GOES7-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT G7-AVG=+091,+000,+000 GOES6-MAX=P:+149NT@ 2148UT GOES6-MIN=N:-014NT@ 1940UT G6-AVG=+117,+029,-002 FLUXFCST=STD:092,092,090;SESC:092,092,090 BAI/PAI-FCST=010,015,020/015,015,018 KFCST=2134 4111 2135 5111 27DAY-AP=002,005 27DAY-KP=1000 1112 1210 1223 WARNINGS=*SWF ALERTS= !!END-DATA!! NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 03 SEP 94 was 28.5. The Full Kp Indices for 03 SEP 94 are: 2- 2o 2o 1+ 1o 1+ 1o 1+ The 3-Hr Ap Indices for 03 SEP 94 are: 7 9 9 5 4 5 4 5 Greater than 2 MeV Electron Fluence for 04 SEP is: 2.3E+06 SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY -------------------- Solar activity was very low. Region 7776 (S08E56) produced a few subflares. The largest was a B6/SF at 04/0605Z. Region 7773 (S08E07) has simplified somewhat. It remains the largest Region on the disk but has been relatively quiet. Solar activity forecast: solar activity is expected to be low. C-flares are possible. There is an outside chance of an M-class flare in either Region 7773 or 7776. The geomagnetic field was quiet. Geophysical activity forecast: the geomagnetic field is expected to become active by the end of the three-day forecast period due to a coronal hole. Event probabilities 05 sep-07 sep Class M 20/20/20 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF Green Geomagnetic activity probabilities 05 sep-07 sep A. Middle Latitudes Active 20/30/30 Minor Storm 10/20/20 Major-Severe Storm 05/10/10 B. High Latitudes Active 20/30/30 Minor Storm 15/20/20 Major-Severe Storm 05/10/10 HF propagation conditions were near-normal over all regions today. A gradual deterioration in propagation is expected over the next 72 hours, beginning first over the high latitude regions and then working equatorward over time. Minor signal degradation is expected to accompany this activity, particularly on transauroral night-crossing circuits. Increased levels of fading, periods of enhanced absorption, and greater multipathing is expected. MUFs may also deteriorate slightly during this unsettled period. COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS ======================================================== REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 04/2400Z SEPTEMBER ------------------------------------------------------------ NMBR LOCATION LO AREA Z LL NN MAG TYPE 7771 N06W17 122 0070 HSX 02 001 ALPHA 7773 S08E07 098 0470 EKI 13 024 BETA 7774 N10E19 086 0030 CRO 06 007 BETA 7775 N16E48 057 0000 AXX 00 001 ALPHA 7776 S08E56 049 0270 CHO 09 003 BETA 7772 S24W79 184 PLAGE REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 05 SEPTEMBER TO 07 SEPTEMBER NMBR LAT LO 7764 S06 358 LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 04 SEPTEMBER, 1994 -------------------------------------------------------- BEGIN MAX END RGN LOC XRAY OP 245MHZ 10CM SWEEP 1427 1427 1428 150 POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 04 SEPTEMBER, 1994 ------------------------------------------------------------ BEGIN MAX END LOCATION TYPE SIZE DUR II IV NO EVENTS OBSERVED INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 04/2400Z --------------------------------------------------- ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS EAST SOUTH WEST NORTH CAR TYPE POL AREA OBSN NO DATA AVAILABLE FOR ANALYSIS SUMMARY OF FLARE EVENTS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY ------------------------------------------------ Date Begin Max End Xray Op Region Locn 2695 MHz 8800 MHz 15.4 GHz ------ ---- ---- ---- ---- -- ------ ------ --------- --------- --------- 03 Sep: 0220 0225 0228 B2.3 0411 0414 0425 C1.4 0804 0809 0811 B8.1 SF 7776 S12E81 0823 0835 0853 C1.1 0857 0858 0903 SF 7773 S07E26 1146 1149 1153 B3.6 SF 7773 S07E27 1240 1253 1311 C1.3 1335 1340 1348 C1.0 1550 1556 1601 C6.8 SF 7776 S09E76 1725 1729 1734 B9.3 REGION FLARE STATISTICS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY ------------------------------------------------ C M X S 1 2 3 4 Total (%) -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --- ------ Region 7773: 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 002 (20.0) Region 7776: 1 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 002 (20.0) Uncorrellated: 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 006 (60.0) Total Events: 010 optical and x-ray. EVENTS WITH SWEEPS AND/OR OPTICAL PHENOMENA FOR THE LAST UTC DAY ---------------------------------------------------------------- Date Begin Max End Xray Op Region Locn Sweeps/Optical Observations ------ ---- ---- ---- ---- -- ------ ------ --------------------------- 03 Sep: 0804 0809 0811 B8.1 SF 7776 S12E81 III 0823 0835 0853 C1.1 III 1335 1340 1348 C1.0 III NOTES: All times are in Universal Time (UT). Characters preceding begin, max, and end times are defined as: B = Before, U = Uncertain, A = After. All times associated with x-ray flares (ex. flares which produce associated x-ray bursts) refer to the begin, max, and end times of the x-rays. Flares which are not associated with x-ray signatures use the optical observations to determine the begin, max, and end times. Acronyms used to identify sweeps and optical phenomena include: II = Type II Sweep Frequency Event III = Type III Sweep IV = Type IV Sweep V = Type V Sweep Continuum = Continuum Radio Event Loop = Loop Prominence System, Spray = Limb Spray, Surge = Bright Limb Surge, EPL = Eruptive Prominence on the Limb. ** End of Daily Report **