Lines: 187 Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 30 August Followup-To: rec.radio.amateur.misc,rec.radio.shortwave Approved: rec-radio-info@ve6mgs.ampr.ab.ca Path: news.cs.tut.fi!news.cc.tut.fi!news.funet.fi!sunic!trane.uninett.no!eunet.no!nuug!EU.net!howland.reston.ans.net!europa.eng.gtefsd.com!newsxfer.itd.umich.edu!nntp.cs.ubc.ca!unixg.ubc.ca!quartz.ucs.ualberta.ca!alberta!ve6mgs!usenet Date: Wed, 31 Aug 1994 22:55:22 MDT From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler) Newsgroups: rec.radio.amateur.misc,rec.radio.shortwave,rec.radio.info Message-ID: <9409010455.AA22658@rho.uleth.ca> Xref: news.cs.tut.fi rec.radio.amateur.misc:58120 rec.radio.shortwave:35873 rec.radio.info:6077 /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\ DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY 30 AUGUST, 1994 /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\ (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data) SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 30 AUGUST, 1994 ---------------------------------------------------------- !!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 242, 08/30/94 10.7 FLUX=083.1 90-AVG=078 SSN=045 BKI=1121 1211 BAI=004 BGND-XRAY=B4.3 FLU1=1.9E+06 FLU10=1.5E+04 PKI=1111 1221 PAI=004 BOU-DEV=006,005,016,009,005,013,006,008 DEV-AVG=008 NT SWF=02:019 XRAY-MAX= M1.4 @ 1037UT XRAY-MIN= B2.8 @ 1245UT XRAY-AVG= C1.4 NEUTN-MAX= +003% @ 1625UT NEUTN-MIN= -001% @ 2310UT NEUTN-AVG= +0.5% PCA-MAX= +0.1DB @ 1650UT PCA-MIN= -0.4DB @ 1255UT PCA-AVG= -0.0DB BOUTF-MAX=55222NT @ 1308UT BOUTF-MIN=55189NT @ 1723UT BOUTF-AVG=55212NT GOES7-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT GOES7-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT G7-AVG=+079,+000,+000 GOES6-MAX=P:+129NT@ 2101UT GOES6-MIN=N:-019NT@ 2213UT G6-AVG=+106,+023,-001 FLUXFCST=STD:086,089,092;SESC:086,089,092 BAI/PAI-FCST=005,005,005/010,010,010 KFCST=1223 3221 2123 3212 27DAY-AP=006,003 27DAY-KP=2101 1123 1000 1221 WARNINGS=*SWF ALERTS=**MINFLR:M1.1/SF@0833,S06E82(7773);**MINFLR:M1.4/SF@1037,S08E83 !!END-DATA!! NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 29 AUG 94 was 27.8. The Full Kp Indices for 29 AUG 94 are: 1o 1- 3- 1+ 1+ 1- 1o 1- The 3-Hr Ap Indices for 29 AUG 94 are: 4 3 12 5 5 3 4 3 Greater than 2 MeV Electron Fluence for 30 AUG is: 6.8E+06 SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY -------------------- Solar activity became moderate. New Region 7773 (S07E73) produced M1/SF flares at 0833Z and 1037Z. Numerous C-class flares also originated from 7773. Recent white light observations classify this region as a moderate size F class group with some interior spot distribution. Plage intensity was moderate to high. It is likely this region is in a growth phase due to flare frequency and plage brightness. Solar activity forecast: solar activity should be moderate. The possibility of an X-class flare from Region 7773 exists. A more confident assessment will be possible once the region rotates farther onto the disk and reliable magnetic data can be obtained. The geomagnetic field was quiet. Geophysical activity forecast: the geomagnetic field should be quiet at mid latitudes and quiet to slightly unsettled at high latitudes. Event probabilities 31 aug-02 sep Class M 60/60/60 Class X 15/15/15 Proton 05/05/05 PCAF Green Geomagnetic activity probabilities 31 aug-02 sep A. Middle Latitudes Active 10/10/10 Minor Storm 01/01/01 Major-Severe Storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/20 Minor Storm 05/05/05 Major-Severe Storm 01/01/01 HF propagation conditions were near-normal over all regions. Minor SWFs may have been associated with the two M-class flares today and could have affected Africa, Europe, and Asia. There is a high probability for additional SWFs over the next 72 hours from the new region rotating into view. There may also be a chance for an isolated major flare which could more seriously affect daylit paths. More will be known over the next few days as the region is scrutinized in greater detail. In general, normal propagation is expected to continue. Increases in MUF are expected over the next week and should continue for as long as Region 7773 remains active and radiation-emissive. COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS ======================================================== REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 30/2400Z AUGUST --------------------------------------------------------- NMBR LOCATION LO AREA Z LL NN MAG TYPE 7771 N07E50 121 0080 HSX 02 001 ALPHA 7772 S23W12 183 0010 BXO 04 003 BETA 7773 S09E71 100 0270 FHI 16 011 BETA 7770 S09W54 225 PLAGE REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 31 AUGUST TO 02 SEPTEMBER NMBR LAT LO NONE LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 30 AUGUST, 1994 ----------------------------------------------------- BEGIN MAX END RGN LOC XRAY OP 245MHZ 10CM SWEEP 0752 0833 0852 7773 S06E82 M1.1 SF 1033 1037 1041 7773 S08E83 M1.4 SF POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 30 AUGUST, 1994 --------------------------------------------------------- BEGIN MAX END LOCATION TYPE SIZE DUR II IV 30/1534 1551 1625 S06E78 LDE C2.7 51 INFERRED CORONAL HOLES: LOCATIONS VALID AT 30/2400Z --------------------------------------------------- ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS EAST SOUTH WEST NORTH CAR TYPE POL AREA OBSN 02 N20E67 N10E56 N30E36 N48E56 116 EXT POS 014 10830A SUMMARY OF FLARE EVENTS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY ------------------------------------------------ Date Begin Max End Xray Op Region Locn 2695 MHz 8800 MHz 15.4 GHz ------ ---- ---- ---- ---- -- ------ ------ --------- --------- --------- 29 Aug: 0130 0145 0201 C1.2 0406 0419 0426 B7.2 0434 0444 0451 C1.1 0517 0522 0529 B2.4 0531 0542 0551 B9.4 0710 0753 0755 C1.0 0858 0903 0909 B4.8 1229 1247 1255 C7.0 1340 1357 1421 C2.4 1707 1745 1755 C5.3 2019 2022 2030 B4.4 2140 2154 2206 C1.0 2210 2303 2326 C5.3 2324 2330 2334 SF S12E84 REGION FLARE STATISTICS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY ------------------------------------------------ C M X S 1 2 3 4 Total (%) -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --- ------ Uncorrellated: 8 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 014 (100.0) Total Events: 014 optical and x-ray. EVENTS WITH SWEEPS AND/OR OPTICAL PHENOMENA FOR THE LAST UTC DAY ---------------------------------------------------------------- Date Begin Max End Xray Op Region Locn Sweeps/Optical Observations ------ ---- ---- ---- ---- -- ------ ------ --------------------------- 29 Aug: 0710 0753 0755 C1.0 III NOTES: All times are in Universal Time (UT). Characters preceding begin, max, and end times are defined as: B = Before, U = Uncertain, A = After. All times associated with x-ray flares (ex. flares which produce associated x-ray bursts) refer to the begin, max, and end times of the x-rays. Flares which are not associated with x-ray signatures use the optical observations to determine the begin, max, and end times. Acronyms used to identify sweeps and optical phenomena include: II = Type II Sweep Frequency Event III = Type III Sweep IV = Type IV Sweep V = Type V Sweep Continuum = Continuum Radio Event Loop = Loop Prominence System, Spray = Limb Spray, Surge = Bright Limb Surge, EPL = Eruptive Prominence on the Limb. ** End of Daily Report **