Newsgroups: aus.radio,ips.solar.activity,rec.radio.amateur.misc,rec.radio.info Path: news.cs.tut.fi!news.funet.fi!news.eunet.fi!EU.net!howland.reston.ans.net!europa.eng.gtefsd.com!newsxfer.itd.umich.edu!isclient.merit.edu!msuinfo!harbinger.cc.monash.edu.au!news.cs.su.oz.au!metro!ipso!rwc From: rwc@corona.syd.ips.oz.au (Regional Warning Centre) Subject: IPS Daily Report - 01 September 94 Message-ID: <1994Sep1.231111.2853@ips.oz.au> Followup-To: aus.radio,rec.radio.amateur.misc Sender: news@ips.oz.au (Usenet News) Nntp-Posting-Host: corona.syd.ips.oz.au Organization: IPS Radio and Space Services. Sydney, Australia. Date: Thu, 1 Sep 1994 23:11:11 GMT Approved: rec-radio-info@ve6mgs.ampr.ab.ca Lines: 81 Xref: news.cs.tut.fi aus.radio:575 rec.radio.amateur.misc:58059 rec.radio.info:6065 SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT ISSUED AT 01/2330Z SEPTEMBER 1994 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES FROM THE REGIONAL WARNING CENTRE (RWC), SYDNEY. SUMMARY FOR 01 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 02 SEPTEMBER - 04 SEPTEMBER ----------------------------------------------------------- 1A. SOLAR SUMMARY Activity: low Flares: none. Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number : 86/29 GOES satellite data for 31 Aug Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.6E+05 Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.5E+04 Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.9E+06 X-ray background: B1.9 Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day. 1B. SOLAR FORECAST 02 Sep 03 Sep 04 Sep Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible Forecast 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Sep: 89/33 ----------------------------------------------------------- 2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY Geomagnetic field at Learmonth: quiet to unsettled Estimated Indices : A K Observed A Index 31 Aug Learmonth 7 3222 2122 Fredericksburg 10 6 Planetary 10 5 Observed Kp for 31 Aug: 0111 2113 2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST DATE Ap CONDITIONS 02 Sep 5 Quiet 03 Sep 5 Quiet 04 Sep 5 Quiet COMMENT: Recurrence suggests quiet conditions to continue until 6 Sep. Geomagnetic activity is expected to increase after this date due to a coronal hole. This hole has contracted since its previous rotation but activity is still expected. ----------------------------------------------------------- 3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY LATITUDE BAND DATE LOW MIDDLE HIGH 01 Sep normal normal fair-normal PCA Event : None. 3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST LATITUDE BAND DATE LOW MIDDLE HIGH 02 Sep normal normal normal 03 Sep normal normal normal 04 Sep normal normal normal ----------------------------------------------------------- 4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY Observed DATE T-index MUFs at Sydney 01 Sep 24 near predicted monthly values Predicted Monthly T-index for September: 20 4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST DATE T-index MUFs 02 Sep 20 Near predicted monthly values 03 Sep 20 Near predicted monthly values 04 Sep 20 Near predicted monthly values COMMENT: IPS HF Communications Warning 1 was issued on 30 August and is current for interval 31 August to 2 September (SWFs). Strong spread F observed during local night. -- IPS Regional Warning Centre, Sydney |IPS Radio and Space Services RWC Duty Forecaster tel: +61 2 4148329 |PO Box 5606 Recorded Message tel: +61 2 4148330 |West Chatswood NSW 2057 email: rwc@ips.oz.au fax: +61 2 4148331 |AUSTRALIA