Newsgroups: aus.radio,ips.solar.activity,rec.radio.amateur.misc,rec.radio.info Path: news.cs.tut.fi!news.funet.fi!news.tele.fi!sunic!news.kth.se!nac.no!ifi.uio.no!wabbit.cc.uow.edu.au!news.ci.com.au!metro!ipso!rwc From: rwc@flare.syd.ips.oz.au (Regional Warning Centre) Subject: IPS Solar and Geophysical Summary - August 94 Message-ID: <1994Sep2.061750.8449@ips.oz.au> Followup-To: aus.radio,rec.radio.amateur.misc Sender: news@ips.oz.au (Usenet News) Nntp-Posting-Host: flare.syd.ips.oz.au Organization: IPS Radio and Space Services. Sydney, Australia. Date: Fri, 2 Sep 1994 06:17:50 GMT Approved: rec-radio-info@ve6mgs.ampr.ab.ca Lines: 171 Xref: news.cs.tut.fi aus.radio:574 rec.radio.amateur.misc:58056 rec.radio.info:6062 SUBJ: IPS MONTHLY REPORT - AUGUST 1994 ISSUED BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES FROM THE REGIONAL WARNING CENTRE (RWC), SYDNEY. 1. SOLAR-GEOPHYSICAL INDICES SOLAR MAGNETIC AUST Day 10 cm flux A-INDEX T INDEX 01 Aug 74 8 27 02 Aug 75 5 25 03 Aug 76 5 27 04 Aug 75 3 23 05 Aug 76 6 21 06 Aug 75 5 22 07 Aug 76 4 29 08 Aug 74 2 27 09 Aug 75 6 28 10 Aug 78 15 31 11 Aug 77 17 34 12 Aug 81 19 15 13 Aug 84 24 17 14 Aug 89 26 18 15 Aug 81 11 7 16 Aug 77 10 20 17 Aug 78 8 21 18 Aug 77 8 18 19 Aug 75 5 23 20 Aug 72 8 22 21 Aug 71 8 26 22 Aug 71 10 22 23 Aug 72 9 28 24 Aug 72 5 29 25 Aug 71 12 26 26 Aug 72 8 26 27 Aug 71 8 19 28 Aug 71 7 25 29 Aug 78 4 21 30 Aug 83 3 28 31 Aug 82 6 25 10 CM FLUX SUNSPOT NUMBER A INDEX AUST FLARES T INDEX Monthly Monthly Yearly Monthly Monthly >M1.0 Month Average Average Average Average Average Aug 94 76.1 22.8 8.9 23.5 8 Jul 94 80.5 35.0 12.5 31.1 1 Jun 94 77.2 28.1 15.0 33.8 1 May 94 79.8 18.2 21.5 27.5 0 Apr 94 79.0 16.7 21.0 34.7 0 Mar 94 90.5 31.7 17.5 36.9 0 Feb 94 99.5 35.9 34.8 22.5 38.0 2 Jan 94 115.0 58.8 36.6 12.4 60.2 11 Dec 93 104.9 49.4 38.4 10.4 56.4 8 Nov 93 95.8 34.8 41.0 11.7 50.0 3 Oct 93 100.2 55.4 44.7 11.6 31.3 3 Sep 93 86.3 21.7 48.2 12.3 33.6 2 Aug 93 93.7 42.0 52.1 11.0 48.7 1 IPS Predicted (Yearly Smoothed) Sunspot Numbers for March 1994-February 1995 Month Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb SSN 34.2 33.0 31.1 29.4 26.6 24.3 23.0 22.5 22.4 21.9 20.5 19.3 Latest T-Indices for IPS Advanced Stand-Alone Prediction System-(ASAPS) Last update: August 1994 Solar-Geophysical Summary Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 1988 45 43 58 74 72 84 84 95 115 132 116 128 1989 147 164 135 140 141 157 162 149 144 160 164 152 1990 150 128 135 129 126 138 136 138 141 136 122 133 1991 143 175 169 163 136 121 141 125 135 131 121 130 1992 152 172 156 134 95 79 89 66 68 68 85 90 1993 75 78 81 65 64 65 61 48 36 41 35 42 1994 55 37* 36* 35* 33* 32* 29* 26* 24* 22* 21* 19* 1995 18* 18* 17* 16* 15* 14* 14* 13* 12* 11* 11* 10* 1996 10* 9* 9* 8* 8* 8* 8* 9* 9* 10* 11* 12* 1997 13* 15* 17* 19* 21* 23* 26* 30* 33* 38* 43* 48* Asterisk indicates predicted value. For information concerning ASAPS for an IBM PC (or compatible) contact IPS. The IPS Monthly T-index is derived from the observed monthly median values of foF2 for each hour at up to 40 ionospheric stations worldwide. These records become available from IPS stations in Australia very soon after each month, but the majority are received up to one year later. This means that the exact observed value of the monthly T-index is not available until some months later. The predicted smoothed monthly T-indices are computed by using a statistical analysis of the observed monthly T-indices for all solar cycles since 1938. The IPS T-indices may not be updated each month but only when sufficient new data becomes available. =============================================================================== 2. FLARES AND SHORT-WAVE FADEOUTS All M flares with an energy greater than or equal to M1 are tabulated under class M flares. However, times of fade-outs are shown only for flares with an energy greater than X-ray class M3. DATE CLASS M CLASS X FADEOUT POSSIBLE FLARES FLARES ON DAYLIGHT CIRCUIT 14 Aug 1 1729-1742 UT 15 Aug 1 17 Aug 1 18 Aug 2 19 Aug 1 30 Aug 2 2.1 Comments on Solar Activity. Solar activity during the first half of the month was low. Activity increased during the middle of the month with M class flares observed on the 14th, 15th, 17th, 18th and 19th of August. Activity returned to low levels until August 30 when further M class flares were observed. Flare activity during August was from two solar regions. The largest flare for the month was an M3.9 at 1738UT on 14 August. Increases were observed in 10cm flux values during the intervals 12-14 August and 28-31 August, coinciding with the flaring regions. The peak value for the month was 89 on the 14th August. =============================================================================== 3. GEOMAGNETIC DISTURBANCES (for Learmonth, WA) DATE COMMENTS 13 August Active to minor storm levels observed. 14 August Active levels observed during local night. 3.1 Comments on Geomagnetic Activity. There was relatively little geomagnetic activity this month. The highest A index observed was 26 on August 14. This activity was associated with a coronal hole. =============================================================================== 4. IONOSPHERIC DISTURBANCES (for Sydney) DATE MUFs 15 August MUFs were 15% depressed and spread F was observed during local night. 4.1 Comments on Ionospheric Conditions. Only one disturbed day observed this month. Spread F was observed during local night during interval 12-15 August. =============================================================================== 5. IPS WARNINGS AND ALERTS ISSUED GEOMAG WARNING NO ISSUE TIME ISSUE DATE BEGIN END 1 0107 UT 07 Aug 94 10 Aug 94 12 Aug 94 HF RADIO WARNING NO ISSUE TIME ISSUE DATE BEGIN END 1 2357 UT 30 Aug 94 31 Aug 94 02 Sep 94 ALERTS: DATE SWF BEGIN-END (UT) 17 Aug 94 0105-0130 UT 18 Aug 94 0305-0310 UT 19 Aug 94 0258-0313 UT -- IPS Regional Warning Centre, Sydney |IPS Radio and Space Services RWC Duty Forecaster tel: +61 2 4148329 |PO Box 5606 Recorded Message tel: +61 2 4148330 |West Chatswood NSW 2057 email: rwc@ips.oz.au fax: +61 2 4148331 |AUSTRALIA