Newsgroups: aus.radio,ips.solar.activity,rec.radio.amateur.misc,rec.radio.info Path: news.cs.tut.fi!news.funet.fi!sunic!pipex!doc.ic.ac.uk!agate!msuinfo!harbinger.cc.monash.edu.au!news.cs.su.oz.au!metro!ipso!rwc From: rwc@flare.syd.ips.oz.au (Regional Warning Centre) Subject: IPS Daily Report - 14 July 94 Message-ID: <1994Jul14.232101.13617@ips.oz.au> Followup-To: aus.radio,rec.radio.amateur.misc Sender: news@ips.oz.au (Usenet News) Nntp-Posting-Host: flare.syd.ips.oz.au Organization: IPS Radio and Space Services. Sydney, Australia. Date: Thu, 14 Jul 1994 23:21:01 GMT Approved: rec-radio-info@ve6mgs.ampr.ab.ca Lines: 88 Xref: news.cs.tut.fi aus.radio:498 rec.radio.amateur.misc:55213 rec.radio.info:5568 SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT ISSUED AT 14/2330Z JULY 1994 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES FROM THE REGIONAL WARNING CENTRE (RWC), SYDNEY. SUMMARY FOR 14 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 15 JULY - 17 JULY IPS Disturbance Warning 18 was issued on 11 July and is current for interval 15-16 July ----------------------------------------------------------- 1A. SOLAR SUMMARY Activity: low Flares: none. Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number : 082/023 GOES satellite data for 13 Jul Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: NA Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: NA Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: NA X-ray background: A6.1 Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day. 1B. SOLAR FORECAST 15 Jul 16 Jul 17 Jul Activity Very low Very low Very low Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected Forecast 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Jul: 080/020 1C. SOLAR COMMENT None. ----------------------------------------------------------- 2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY Geomagnetic field at Learmonth: quiet to active, with minor storm period 15-18UT. Estimated Indices : A K Observed A Index 13 Jul Learmonth 21 2334 4533 Fredericksburg 15 04 Planetary 21 04 Observed Kp for 13 Jul: 2010 1122 2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST DATE Ap CONDITIONS 15 Jul 25 Unsettled to active 16 Jul 25 Unsettled to active 17 Jul 15 Unsettled 2C. MAGNETIC COMMENT Recurrent coronal hole induced activity expected 15-16 July. ----------------------------------------------------------- 3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY LATITUDE BAND DATE LOW MIDDLE HIGH 14 Jul normal normal normal PCA Event : None. 3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST LATITUDE BAND DATE LOW MIDDLE HIGH 15 Jul normal normal fair 16 Jul normal normal fair 17 Jul normal normal fair 3C. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION COMMENT None. ----------------------------------------------------------- 4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY Observed DATE T-index MUFs 14 Jul 38 near predicted monthly values, with 15-30% enhanced 11-16UT. Predicted Monthly T-index for July: 30 4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST DATE T-index MUFs 15 Jul 35 Near predicted monthly values 16 Jul 30 Near predicted monthly values 17 Jul 30 Near predicted monthly values 4C. AUSTRALIAN REGION COMMENT Slightly degraded HF propagation conditions likely 15-16 July due to coronal hole activity. -- IPS Regional Warning Centre, Sydney |IPS Radio and Space Services RWC Duty Forecaster tel: +61 2 4148329 |PO Box 5606 Recorded Message tel: +61 2 4148330 |West Chatswood NSW 2057 email: rwc@ips.oz.au fax: +61 2 4148331 |AUSTRALIA