Newsgroups: aus.radio,ips.solar.activity,rec.radio.amateur.misc,rec.radio.info Path: news.cs.tut.fi!news.funet.fi!news.eunet.fi!EU.net!howland.reston.ans.net!agate!msuinfo!harbinger.cc.monash.edu.au!news.cs.su.oz.au!metro!ipso!rwc From: rwc@flare.syd.ips.oz.au (Regional Warning Centre) Subject: IPS Daily Report - 13 July 94 Message-ID: <1994Jul13.232909.8761@ips.oz.au> Followup-To: aus.radio,rec.radio.amateur.misc Sender: news@ips.oz.au (Usenet News) Nntp-Posting-Host: flare.syd.ips.oz.au Organization: IPS Radio and Space Services. Sydney, Australia. Date: Wed, 13 Jul 1994 23:29:09 GMT Approved: rec-radio-info@ve6mgs.ampr.ab.ca Lines: 85 Xref: news.cs.tut.fi aus.radio:497 rec.radio.amateur.misc:55139 rec.radio.info:5561 SUBJ: IPS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT ISSUED AT 13/2330Z JULY 1994 BY IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES FROM THE REGIONAL WARNING CENTRE (RWC), SYDNEY. SUMMARY FOR 13 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 14 JULY - 16 JULY IPS Disturbance Warning 18 was issued on 11 July and is current for interval 15-16 July ----------------------------------------------------------- 1A. SOLAR SUMMARY Activity: very low Flares: none. Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number : 081/022 GOES satellite data for 12 Jul Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.0E+06 Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.5E+04 Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.7E+07 X-ray background: A6.3 Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day. 1B. SOLAR FORECAST 14 Jul 15 Jul 16 Jul Activity Very low Very low Very low Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected Forecast 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Jul: 080/020 1C. SOLAR COMMENT None. ----------------------------------------------------------- 2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY Geomagnetic field at Learmonth: quiet Estimated Indices : A K Observed A Index 12 Jul Learmonth 04 2221 1111 Fredericksburg 05 02 Planetary 04 03 Observed Kp for 12 Jul: 1100 1212 2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST DATE Ap CONDITIONS 14 Jul 12 Quiet to unsettled 15 Jul 20 Unsettled to active 16 Jul 25 Unsettled to active 2C. MAGNETIC COMMENT Recurrent coronal hole induced activity expected 15-16 July. ----------------------------------------------------------- 3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY LATITUDE BAND DATE LOW MIDDLE HIGH 13 Jul normal normal normal PCA Event : None. 3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST LATITUDE BAND DATE LOW MIDDLE HIGH 14 Jul normal normal normal 15 Jul normal normal fair 16 Jul normal normal fair 3C. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION COMMENT None. ----------------------------------------------------------- 4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY Observed DATE T-index MUFs 13 Jul 33 near predicted monthly values Predicted Monthly T-index for July: 30 4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST DATE T-index MUFs 14 Jul 30 Near predicted monthly values 15 Jul 30 Near predicted monthly values 16 Jul 30 Near predicted monthly values 4C. AUSTRALIAN REGION COMMENT None. -- IPS Regional Warning Centre, Sydney |IPS Radio and Space Services RWC Duty Forecaster tel: +61 2 4148329 |PO Box 5606 Recorded Message tel: +61 2 4148330 |West Chatswood NSW 2057 email: rwc@ips.oz.au fax: +61 2 4148331 |AUSTRALIA