Xref: news.cs.tut.fi rec.radio.amateur.misc:52413 rec.radio.shortwave:31536 rec.radio.info:5132 Lines: 165 Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 26 May Followup-To: rec.radio.amateur.misc,rec.radio.shortwave Approved: rec-radio-info@ve6mgs.ampr.ab.ca Path: news.cs.tut.fi!news.cc.tut.fi!news.funet.fi!sunic!trane.uninett.no!eunet.no!nuug!EU.net!howland.reston.ans.net!cs.utexas.edu!math.ohio-state.edu!cyber2.cyberstore.ca!nntp.cs.ubc.ca!alberta!ve6mgs!usenet Date: Fri, 27 May 1994 12:17:15 MDT From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler) Newsgroups: rec.radio.amateur.misc,rec.radio.shortwave,rec.radio.info Message-ID: <9405271817.AA00916@rho.uleth.ca> /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\ DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY 26 MAY, 1994 /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\ (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data) SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 26 MAY, 1994 ------------------------------------------------------- !!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 146, 05/26/94 10.7 FLUX=071.5 90-AVG=084 SSN=011 BKI=1343 2222 BAI=011 BGND-XRAY=A1.1 FLU1=1.6E+06 FLU10=1.3E+04 PKI=2344 2322 PAI=014 BOU-DEV=006,021,047,033,018,015,010,013 DEV-AVG=020 NT SWF=00:000 XRAY-MAX= A7.9 @ 1430UT XRAY-MIN= A1.0 @ 2354UT XRAY-AVG= A2.1 NEUTN-MAX= +002% @ 2235UT NEUTN-MIN= -002% @ 0705UT NEUTN-AVG= -0.2% PCA-MAX= +0.1DB @ 2225UT PCA-MIN= -0.2DB @ 2215UT PCA-AVG= -0.0DB BOUTF-MAX=55331NT @ 0005UT BOUTF-MIN=55295NT @ 1714UT BOUTF-AVG=55314NT GOES7-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT GOES7-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT G7-AVG=+074,+000,+000 GOES6-MAX=P:+126NT@ 1803UT GOES6-MIN=N:-078NT@ 0551UT G6-AVG=+101,+030,-036 FLUXFCST=STD:070,070,070;SESC:070,070,070 BAI/PAI-FCST=010,010,025/015,020,035 KFCST=3324 4223 3324 4223 27DAY-AP=006,002 27DAY-KP=1231 1013 0110 1011 WARNINGS=*GSTRM;*AURMIDWRN ALERTS= !!END-DATA!! NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 25 MAY 94 was 25.4. The Full Kp Indices for 25 MAY 94 are: 3o 5+ 4- 4o 2- 3- 2o 4- The 3-Hr Ap Indices for 25 MAY 94 are: 15 57 25 30 7 12 8 22 Greater than 2 MeV Electron Fluence for 26 MAY is: 4.3E+07 SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY -------------------- Solar activity was very low. All regions were quiet. Solar activity forecast: solar activity is expected to be very low. The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. Storm conditions occurred at some high latitude stations from 26/0600-1200Z. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was moderate except for a 5 hour period, from 26/0500-1000Z, when it was normal. (STD: Overall > 2 MeV electron fluence levels are near-normal.) Geophysical activity forecast: the geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next two days. A recurrent disturbance is expected to start by the end of the third day. Event probabilities 27 may-29 may Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF Green Geomagnetic activity probabilities 27 may-29 may A. Middle Latitudes Active 15/30/30 Minor Storm 05/25/25 Major-Severe Storm 05/15/15 B. High Latitudes Active 15/30/30 Minor Storm 05/25/25 Major-Severe Storm 05/15/15 HF propagation conditions were near-normal over most regions. Minor signal degradation was observed over the high and polar latitude paths between 06:00 UTC and 12:00 UTC due to minor storming in those regions. However, conditions returned to normal levels by 18:00 UTC. Sporadic-E was also prevalent over some middle latitude stations. No changes in propagation are expected over the next 24 to 48 hours. The recurrent coronal hole disturbance noted above will begin degrading high and polar latitude signals on 29 May. Thereafter, effects of this activity will spill over into the middle latitude regions. COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS ======================================================== REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 26/2400Z MAY ------------------------------------------------------ NMBR LOCATION LO AREA Z LL NN MAG TYPE 7728 S07E38 323 0000 AXX 00 001 ALPHA 7727 N08W52 053 PLAGE REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 27 MAY TO 29 MAY NMBR LAT LO NONE LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 26 MAY, 1994 -------------------------------------------------- BEGIN MAX END RGN LOC XRAY OP 245MHZ 10CM SWEEP NONE POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 26 MAY, 1994 ------------------------------------------------------ BEGIN MAX END LOCATION TYPE SIZE DUR II IV NO EVENTS OBSERVED INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 26/2400Z --------------------------------------------------- ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS EAST SOUTH WEST NORTH CAR TYPE POL AREA OBSN NO DATA AVAILABLE FOR ANALYSIS SUMMARY OF FLARE EVENTS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY ------------------------------------------------ Date Begin Max End Xray Op Region Locn 2695 MHz 8800 MHz 15.4 GHz ------ ---- ---- ---- ---- -- ------ ------ --------- --------- --------- NO EVENTS OBSERVED. REGION FLARE STATISTICS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY ------------------------------------------------ C M X S 1 2 3 4 Total (%) -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --- ------ Uncorrellated: 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 000 ( 0.0) Total Events: 000 optical and x-ray. EVENTS WITH SWEEPS AND/OR OPTICAL PHENOMENA FOR THE LAST UTC DAY ---------------------------------------------------------------- Date Begin Max End Xray Op Region Locn Sweeps/Optical Observations ------ ---- ---- ---- ---- -- ------ ------ --------------------------- NO EVENTS OBSERVED. NOTES: All times are in Universal Time (UT). Characters preceding begin, max, and end times are defined as: B = Before, U = Uncertain, A = After. All times associated with x-ray flares (ex. flares which produce associated x-ray bursts) refer to the begin, max, and end times of the x-rays. Flares which are not associated with x-ray signatures use the optical observations to determine the begin, max, and end times. Acronyms used to identify sweeps and optical phenomena include: II = Type II Sweep Frequency Event III = Type III Sweep IV = Type IV Sweep V = Type V Sweep Continuum = Continuum Radio Event Loop = Loop Prominence System, Spray = Limb Spray, Surge = Bright Limb Surge, EPL = Eruptive Prominence on the Limb. ** End of Daily Report **