Xref: news.cs.tut.fi rec.radio.amateur.misc:50780 rec.radio.shortwave:30508 rec.radio.info:4892 Lines: 179 Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 27 April Followup-To: rec.radio.amateur.misc,rec.radio.shortwave Approved: rec-radio-info@ve6mgs.ampr.ab.ca Path: news.cs.tut.fi!news.cc.tut.fi!news.funet.fi!news.eunet.fi!EU.net!howland.reston.ans.net!cs.utexas.edu!convex!news.duke.edu!eff!news.kei.com!yeshua.marcam.com!zip.eecs.umich.edu!newsxfer.itd.umich.edu!nntp.cs.ubc.ca!alberta!ve6mgs!usenet Date: Wed, 27 Apr 1994 20:48:40 MDT From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler) Newsgroups: rec.radio.amateur.misc,rec.radio.shortwave,rec.radio.info Message-ID: <9404280248.AA00295@rho.uleth.ca> /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\ DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY 27 APRIL, 1994 /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\ (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data) SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 27 APRIL, 1994 --------------------------------------------------------- !!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 117, 04/27/94 10.7 FLUX=078.0 90-AVG=091 SSN=058 BKI=1121 2111 BAI=004 BGND-XRAY=A3.4 FLU1=5.2E+05 FLU10=1.4E+04 PKI=1122 2211 PAI=005 BOU-DEV=006,009,012,007,010,008,005,006 DEV-AVG=007 NT SWF=00:000 XRAY-MAX= B1.5 @ 0930UT XRAY-MIN= A2.7 @ 2155UT XRAY-AVG= A5.7 NEUTN-MAX= +003% @ 2200UT NEUTN-MIN= -002% @ 1825UT NEUTN-AVG= +0.2% PCA-MAX= +0.2DB @ 1955UT PCA-MIN= -0.1DB @ 2240UT PCA-AVG= -0.0DB BOUTF-MAX=55347NT @ 1312UT BOUTF-MIN=55311NT @ 1753UT BOUTF-AVG=55331NT GOES7-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT GOES7-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT G7-AVG=+082,+000,+000 GOES6-MAX=P:+125NT@ 1750UT GOES6-MIN=N:-071NT@ 0431UT G6-AVG=+102,+025,-031 FLUXFCST=STD:115,115,120;SESC:115,115,120 BAI/PAI-FCST=010,020,035/015,025,040 KFCST=2344 3322 3445 4433 27DAY-AP=005,006 27DAY-KP=2212 2221 1222 2222 WARNINGS=*GSTRM;*AURMIDWRN ALERTS= !!END-DATA!! NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 26 APR 94 was 36.6. The Full Kp Indices for 26 APR 94 are: 1o 2- 3- 2o 1+ 2- 1+ 2- The 3-Hr Ap Indices for 26 APR 94 are: 4 6 11 7 5 7 5 7 Greater than 2 MeV Electron Fluence for 27 APR is: 3.1E+07 SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY -------------------- Solar activity was very low. Only one weak SF flare from Rgn 7705 (N04W69) was recorded this period. All other regions were quiet. Rgn 7704 (N13W29) re-emerged as a 3 spot BXO beta. New Region 7709 (N02W36) was numbered this period as a single AXX spot group. Solar activity forecast: solar activity is expected to be very low. The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Geophysical activity forecast: the geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet to unsettled for day one of the forecast period. Day's two and three will experience mostly active to minor storm conditions due to a favorably positioned recurrent coronal hole. Storm conditions are expected to persist well beyond the forecast period. Event probabilities 28 apr-30 apr Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF Green Geomagnetic activity probabilities 28 apr-30 apr A. Middle Latitudes Active 20/25/30 Minor Storm 15/25/35 Major-Severe Storm 05/05/15 B. High Latitudes Active 20/25/30 Minor Storm 20/30/40 Major-Severe Storm 05/10/20 HF propagation conditions were normal over all regions today. Similar conditions are expected over the next 24 to 48 hours, although minor signal degradation could begin to be observed over the high and polar latitude regions on 29 April. Disturbed conditions are expected for most regions on 30 April as geomagnetic storming intensifies. This activity is not expected to subside until about 09 May. COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS ======================================================== REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 27/2400Z APRIL -------------------------------------------------------- NMBR LOCATION LO AREA Z LL NN MAG TYPE 7704 N13W29 054 0010 BXO 03 003 BETA 7705 N04W69 094 0070 HSX 01 001 ALPHA 7707 N00W54 079 0010 BXO 05 002 BETA 7708 N10W83 108 0000 AXX 01 001 ALPHA 7709 N02W36 061 0000 AXX 00 001 ALPHA REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 28 APRIL TO 30 APRIL NMBR LAT LO NONE LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 27 APRIL, 1994 ---------------------------------------------------- BEGIN MAX END RGN LOC XRAY OP 245MHZ 10CM SWEEP NONE POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 27 APRIL, 1994 -------------------------------------------------------- BEGIN MAX END LOCATION TYPE SIZE DUR II IV 27/ 0821 0929 1054 LDE B1.5 153 INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 27/2400Z --------------------------------------------------- ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS EAST SOUTH WEST NORTH CAR TYPE POL AREA OBSN NO DATA AVAILABLE FOR ANALYSIS SUMMARY OF FLARE EVENTS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY ------------------------------------------------ Date Begin Max End Xray Op Region Locn 2695 MHz 8800 MHz 15.4 GHz ------ ---- ---- ---- ---- -- ------ ------ --------- --------- --------- 26 Apr: 0055 0101 0106 B3.6 0205 0215 0223 B9.7 0301 0307 0312 B1.9 0329 0333 0338 B2.0 0526 0530 0533 B1.5 0738 0748 0758 B5.7 0852 0856 0859 B2.1 0943 0947 0950 B1.9 1148 1152 1157 B1.9 1214 1218 1229 B1.8 1349 1357 1408 B3.5 1922 1930 1938 B2.5 REGION FLARE STATISTICS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY ------------------------------------------------ C M X S 1 2 3 4 Total (%) -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --- ------ Uncorrellated: 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 012 (100.0) Total Events: 012 optical and x-ray. EVENTS WITH SWEEPS AND/OR OPTICAL PHENOMENA FOR THE LAST UTC DAY ---------------------------------------------------------------- Date Begin Max End Xray Op Region Locn Sweeps/Optical Observations ------ ---- ---- ---- ---- -- ------ ------ --------------------------- 26 Apr: 1922 1930 1938 B2.5 III NOTES: All times are in Universal Time (UT). Characters preceding begin, max, and end times are defined as: B = Before, U = Uncertain, A = After. All times associated with x-ray flares (ex. flares which produce associated x-ray bursts) refer to the begin, max, and end times of the x-rays. Flares which are not associated with x-ray signatures use the optical observations to determine the begin, max, and end times. Acronyms used to identify sweeps and optical phenomena include: II = Type II Sweep Frequency Event III = Type III Sweep IV = Type IV Sweep V = Type V Sweep Continuum = Continuum Radio Event Loop = Loop Prominence System, Spray = Limb Spray, Surge = Bright Limb Surge, EPL = Eruptive Prominence on the Limb. ** End of Daily Report **