Xref: news.cs.tut.fi rec.radio.amateur.misc:50513 rec.radio.shortwave:30241 rec.radio.info:4838 Lines: 170 Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 21 April Followup-To: rec.radio.amateur.misc,rec.radio.shortwave Approved: rec-radio-info@ve6mgs.ampr.ab.ca Path: news.cs.tut.fi!news.funet.fi!sunic!ugle.unit.no!trane.uninett.no!eunet.no!EU.net!howland.reston.ans.net!paladin.american.edu!gatech!newsxfer.itd.umich.edu!nntp.cs.ubc.ca!alberta!ve6mgs!usenet Date: Thu, 21 Apr 1994 21:50:55 MDT From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler) Newsgroups: rec.radio.amateur.misc,rec.radio.shortwave,rec.radio.info Message-ID: <9404220350.AA27398@rho.uleth.ca> /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\ DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY 21 APRIL, 1994 /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\ (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data) SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 21 APRIL, 1994 --------------------------------------------------------- !!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 111, 04/21/94 10.7 FLUX=086.7 90-AVG=093 SSN=053 BKI=2331 2223 BAI=009 BGND-XRAY=A4.5 FLU1=2.5E+06 FLU10=1.4E+04 PKI=2231 2233 PAI=009 BOU-DEV=010,024,031,007,010,010,013,029 DEV-AVG=016 NT SWF=00:000 XRAY-MAX= C2.3 @ 2215UT XRAY-MIN= A4.0 @ 1143UT XRAY-AVG= B1.2 NEUTN-MAX= +002% @ 2055UT NEUTN-MIN= -001% @ 2130UT NEUTN-AVG= +0.2% PCA-MAX= -0.5DB @ 1145UT PCA-MIN= -2.1DB @ 0250UT PCA-AVG= -1.3DB BOUTF-MAX=55345NT @ 2209UT BOUTF-MIN=55311NT @ 1717UT BOUTF-AVG=55328NT GOES7-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT GOES7-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT G7-AVG=+079,+000,+000 GOES6-MAX=P:+128NT@ 1821UT GOES6-MIN=N:-074NT@ 0440UT G6-AVG=+098,+026,-038 FLUXFCST=STD:120,125,130;SESC:120,125,130 BAI/PAI-FCST=010,010,010/012,015,015 KFCST=2225 4221 2225 4221 27DAY-AP=013,009 27DAY-KP=3233 3333 2233 2322 WARNINGS= ALERTS= !!END-DATA!! NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 20 APR 94 is not available. The Full Kp Indices for 20 APR 94 are: 3o 3o 3o 3o 2o 2- 1+ 2- The 3-Hr Ap Indices for 20 APR 94 are: 14 15 15 14 9 7 5 6 Greater than 2 MeV Electron Fluence for 21 APR is: 3.4E+08 SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY -------------------- Solar activity was low. C-class flares were observed in Region 7704 (N09E55) at 21/1417Z (C1/SF) and new Region 7705 (N05E13) at 21/2037Z (C1/SF). Region 7705 is emerging rapidly and has had frequent flare-bright fluctuations. Region 7704 is still a small H-type group and has been relatively inactive. Solar activity forecast: solar activity is expected to be low. Additional C-class flares are possible in Regions 7704 and 7705. The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. Geophysical activity forecast: the geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled. Event probabilities 22 apr-24 apr Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF Green Geomagnetic activity probabilities 22 apr-24 apr A. Middle Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 10/10/10 Major-Severe Storm 05/05/05 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 10/10/10 Major-Severe Storm 05/05/05 HF propagation conditions were normal over all regions. No significant changes are expected over the next 72 hours. Near-normal propagation should persist. COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS ======================================================== REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 21/2400Z APRIL -------------------------------------------------------- NMBR LOCATION LO AREA Z LL NN MAG TYPE 7701 N07W14 118 0100 HSX 02 001 ALPHA 7702 S12E03 101 0000 AXX 02 002 ALPHA 7704 N09E55 049 0040 HRX 02 003 ALPHA 7705 N05E13 091 0020 CRO 03 007 BETA 7703 N09E05 099 PLAGE REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 22 APRIL TO 24 APRIL NMBR LAT LO NONE LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 21 APRIL, 1994 ---------------------------------------------------- BEGIN MAX END RGN LOC XRAY OP 245MHZ 10CM SWEEP NONE POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 21 APRIL, 1994 -------------------------------------------------------- BEGIN MAX END LOCATION TYPE SIZE DUR II IV NO EVENTS OBSERVED INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 21/2400Z --------------------------------------------------- ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS EAST SOUTH WEST NORTH CAR TYPE POL AREA OBSN 77 N15E31 N08E19 N12E09 N28E26 080 ISO POS 004 10830A SUMMARY OF FLARE EVENTS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY ------------------------------------------------ Date Begin Max End Xray Op Region Locn 2695 MHz 8800 MHz 15.4 GHz ------ ---- ---- ---- ---- -- ------ ------ --------- --------- --------- 20 Apr: 0205 0208 0212 B1.3 1142 1151 1159 B1.4 1339 1344 1349 B1.2 1430 1433 1438 SF 7701 N07E07 1522 1529 1536 B1.1 1539 1544 1552 B1.4 1721 1726 1738 B1.9 1811 1836 1852 B6.1 SF 7701 N09E05 2029 2032 2035 B1.0 2122 2126 2131 B1.4 REGION FLARE STATISTICS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY ------------------------------------------------ C M X S 1 2 3 4 Total (%) -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --- ------ Region 7701: 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 002 (20.0) Uncorrellated: 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 008 (80.0) Total Events: 010 optical and x-ray. EVENTS WITH SWEEPS AND/OR OPTICAL PHENOMENA FOR THE LAST UTC DAY ---------------------------------------------------------------- Date Begin Max End Xray Op Region Locn Sweeps/Optical Observations ------ ---- ---- ---- ---- -- ------ ------ --------------------------- NO EVENTS OBSERVED. NOTES: All times are in Universal Time (UT). Characters preceding begin, max, and end times are defined as: B = Before, U = Uncertain, A = After. All times associated with x-ray flares (ex. flares which produce associated x-ray bursts) refer to the begin, max, and end times of the x-rays. Flares which are not associated with x-ray signatures use the optical observations to determine the begin, max, and end times. Acronyms used to identify sweeps and optical phenomena include: II = Type II Sweep Frequency Event III = Type III Sweep IV = Type IV Sweep V = Type V Sweep Continuum = Continuum Radio Event Loop = Loop Prominence System, Spray = Limb Spray, Surge = Bright Limb Surge, EPL = Eruptive Prominence on the Limb. ** End of Daily Report **