Xref: news.cs.tut.fi rec.radio.amateur.misc:50403 rec.radio.shortwave:30113 rec.radio.info:4805 Lines: 172 Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 19 April Followup-To: rec.radio.amateur.misc,rec.radio.shortwave Approved: rec-radio-info@ve6mgs.ampr.ab.ca Path: news.cs.tut.fi!news.funet.fi!news.eunet.fi!EU.net!howland.reston.ans.net!gatech!newsxfer.itd.umich.edu!nntp.cs.ubc.ca!alberta!ve6mgs!usenet Date: Tue, 19 Apr 1994 23:25:18 MDT From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler) Newsgroups: rec.radio.amateur.misc,rec.radio.shortwave,rec.radio.info Message-ID: <9404200525.AA16806@rho.uleth.ca> /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\ DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY 19 APRIL, 1994 /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\ (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data) SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 19 APRIL, 1994 --------------------------------------------------------- !!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 109, 04/19/94 10.7 FLUX=085.4 90-AVG=094 SSN=052 BKI=5333 2223 BAI=016 BGND-XRAY=A5.7 FLU1=4.4E+05 FLU10=1.2E+04 PKI=5344 2233 PAI=016 BOU-DEV=080,034,038,035,013,015,010,022 DEV-AVG=031 NT SWF=00:000 XRAY-MAX= C2.1 @ 1700UT XRAY-MIN= A4.8 @ 2235UT XRAY-AVG= B1.2 NEUTN-MAX= +000% @ 0000UT NEUTN-MIN= +000% @ 0000UT NEUTN-AVG= +0.0% PCA-MAX= +0.0DB @ 0000UT PCA-MIN= +0.0DB @ 0000UT PCA-AVG= +0.0DB BOUTF-MAX=55345NT @ 0155UT BOUTF-MIN=55309NT @ 1658UT BOUTF-AVG=55326NT GOES7-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT GOES7-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT G7-AVG=+076,+000,+000 GOES6-MAX=P:+126NT@ 1812UT GOES6-MIN=N:-092NT@ 0510UT G6-AVG=+095,+028,-042 FLUXFCST=STD:110,115,120;SESC:110,115,120 BAI/PAI-FCST=015,015,010/015,010,015 KFCST=3334 4333 3334 2111 27DAY-AP=017,016 27DAY-KP=3533 4322 4325 4222 WARNINGS= ALERTS= !!END-DATA!! NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 18 APR 94 was 20.8. The Full Kp Indices for 18 APR 94 are: 3+ 4- 4o 3o 4- 4- 3+ 3- The 3-Hr Ap Indices for 18 APR 94 are: 17 21 29 14 24 24 19 14 Greater than 2 MeV Electron Fluence for 19 APR is: 1.8E+08 SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY -------------------- Solar activity was low. Newly numbered Region 7704 (N08E85) produced an impressive C2/2N flare at 19/1700UT with an associated loop prominence. This region is just now showing a small H type spot group. Region 7701 (N07E12) displayed just a minor B1/SF flare at 19/1247UT. This region is decaying. Region 7703 (N09E31) was also numbered today. Solar activity forecast: solar activity is expected to be very low to low. Region 7704 has the best chance of producing C-class activity and an outside chance of an isolated M-class flare. The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to minor storm levels for the past 24 hours. Geophysical activity forecast: the geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly unsettled for the entire forecast period. Event probabilities 20 apr-22 apr Class M 05/05/05 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF Green Geomagnetic activity probabilities 20 apr-22 apr A. Middle Latitudes Active 35/35/20 Minor Storm 15/15/10 Major-Severe Storm 05/05/05 B. High Latitudes Active 35/35/25 Minor Storm 20/20/15 Major-Severe Storm 10/10/05 HF propagation conditions finally returned to near-normal values over the low and middle latitudes and began approaching near-normal values over the high and polar latitudes. These higher latitude regions continued to experience minor signal degradation, but transpolar and transauroral circuits are far better than they were two days ago. MUFs remain depressed by between approximately 15 to 25 percent, but are also slowly recovering. Similar gradually improving conditions are expected over the next 3 days. Enjoy it while it lasts; the recurrent coronal hole which has had a profound impact on global communications over the last three months is due to return in early May. COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS ======================================================== REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 19/2400Z APRIL -------------------------------------------------------- NMBR LOCATION LO AREA Z LL NN MAG TYPE 7701 N07E12 118 0110 CSO 04 003 BETA 7702 S12E14 111 0020 CRX 03 005 ALPHA 7703 N09E31 099 0000 AXX 00 001 ALPHA 7704 N08E78 052 0000 AXX 01 003 ALPHA 7700 N03W77 207 PLAGE REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 20 APRIL TO 22 APRIL NMBR LAT LO NONE LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 19 APRIL, 1994 ---------------------------------------------------- BEGIN MAX END RGN LOC XRAY OP 245MHZ 10CM SWEEP NONE POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 19 APRIL, 1994 -------------------------------------------------------- BEGIN MAX END LOCATION TYPE SIZE DUR II IV NO EVENTS OBSERVED INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 19/2400Z --------------------------------------------------- ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS EAST SOUTH WEST NORTH CAR TYPE POL AREA OBSN 76 N57W02 S12W58 S03W83 N59W18 174 ISO POS 029 10830A SUMMARY OF FLARE EVENTS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY ------------------------------------------------ Date Begin Max End Xray Op Region Locn 2695 MHz 8800 MHz 15.4 GHz ------ ---- ---- ---- ---- -- ------ ------ --------- --------- --------- 18 Apr: 1347 1421 1514 C1.2 REGION FLARE STATISTICS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY ------------------------------------------------ C M X S 1 2 3 4 Total (%) -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --- ------ Uncorrellated: 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 001 (100.0) Total Events: 001 optical and x-ray. EVENTS WITH SWEEPS AND/OR OPTICAL PHENOMENA FOR THE LAST UTC DAY ---------------------------------------------------------------- Date Begin Max End Xray Op Region Locn Sweeps/Optical Observations ------ ---- ---- ---- ---- -- ------ ------ --------------------------- NO EVENTS OBSERVED. NOTES: All times are in Universal Time (UT). Characters preceding begin, max, and end times are defined as: B = Before, U = Uncertain, A = After. All times associated with x-ray flares (ex. flares which produce associated x-ray bursts) refer to the begin, max, and end times of the x-rays. Flares which are not associated with x-ray signatures use the optical observations to determine the begin, max, and end times. Acronyms used to identify sweeps and optical phenomena include: II = Type II Sweep Frequency Event III = Type III Sweep IV = Type IV Sweep V = Type V Sweep Continuum = Continuum Radio Event Loop = Loop Prominence System, Spray = Limb Spray, Surge = Bright Limb Surge, EPL = Eruptive Prominence on the Limb. ** End of Daily Report **