Xref: news.cs.tut.fi rec.radio.amateur.misc:47373 rec.radio.shortwave:27987 rec.radio.info:4201 Lines: 166 Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 23 February Followup-To: rec.radio.amateur.misc,rec.radio.shortwave Approved: rec-radio-info@ve6mgs.ampr.ab.ca Path: news.cs.tut.fi!news.cc.tut.fi!news.funet.fi!news.tele.fi!uunet!convex!news.oc.com!news.kei.com!sol.ctr.columbia.edu!newsxfer.itd.umich.edu!nntp.cs.ubc.ca!alberta!ve6mgs!usenet Date: Fri, 25 Feb 1994 13:48:38 MST From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler) Newsgroups: rec.radio.amateur.misc,rec.radio.shortwave,rec.radio.info Message-ID: <9402252048.AA12960@rho.uleth.ca> /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\ DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACT 23 FEBRUARY, 1994 /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\ (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data) SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACT ------------------------------------------------------------ !!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 054, 02/23/94 10.7 FLUX=107.4 90-AVG=107 SSN=047 BKI=2333 2001 BAI=007 BGND-XRAY=B2.0 FLU1=7.3E+06 FLU10=2.3E+04 PKI=2333 2232 PAI=011 BOU-DEV=013,038,025,027,011,004,004,005 DEV-AVG=015 NT SWF=00:000 XRAY-MAX= C1.4 @ 2051UT XRAY-MIN= A7.7 @ 0734UT XRAY-AVG= B2.9 NEUTN-MAX= +001% @ 2320UT NEUTN-MIN= -005% @ 1015UT NEUTN-AVG= -1.5% PCA-MAX= +0.1DB @ 2140UT PCA-MIN= -0.3DB @ 1045UT PCA-AVG= +0.0DB BOUTF-MAX=55348NT @ 0336UT BOUTF-MIN=55314NT @ 1847UT BOUTF-AVG=55337NT GOES7-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT GOES7-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT G7-AVG=+075,+000,+000 GOES6-MAX=P:+123NT@ 1802UT GOES6-MIN=N:-067NT@ 0355UT G6-AVG=+096,+040,-034 FLUXFCST=STD:105,100,100;SESC:105,100,100 BAI/PAI-FCST=010,010,005/018,015,010 KFCST=2344 4321 2334 4321 27DAY-AP=016,016 27DAY-KP=2343 3433 4335 3221 WARNINGS= ALERTS= !!END-DATA!! NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 22 FEB 94 was 26.0. The Full Kp Indices for 22 FEB 94 are: 7o 6o 4o 5+ 4+ 3o 3- 3o The 3-Hr Ap Indices for 22 FEB 94 are: 140 80 27 54 34 16 11 15 Greater than 2 MeV Electron Fluence for 23 FEB 94 is: 7.9E+08 SYNOPSIS OF ACT -------------------- Solar activity was low. A C1 x-ray event occurred at 23/0146Z and another at 23/2051Z both were optically uncorrelated. The three spot groups visible have been stable. Solar activity forecast: solar activity is expected to be low. The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Brief periods of minor to major storm levels occurred at high-latitudes. Geophysical activity forecast: the geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled throughout the period. Intervals of nighttime substorms are possible during the next 24 hours. Event probabilities 24 feb-26 feb Class M 05/05/05 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 05/05/05 PCAF Yellow Geomagnetic activity probabilities 24 feb-26 feb A. Middle Latitudes Active 25/25/15 Minor Storm 15/15/10 Major-Severe Storm 05/05/01 B. High Latitudes Active 25/25/20 Minor Storm 20/15/15 Major-Severe Storm 10/05/05 HF propagation conditions continue to gradually improve. Middle and low latitudes are observing predominantly normal conditions, while high and polar latitudes are still seeing periods of minor signal degradation and below-normal propagation due to residual night-sector substorm activity. Conditions should return to near-normal over the higher latitudes over the next 24 to 36 hours and should then remain normal for at least the next 48 to 72 hours. COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS ======================================================== REGIONS WIT ----------------------------------------------------------- NMBR LOCATION LO AREA Z LL NN MAG TYPE 7671 N11W55 191 0290 CSO 07 009 BET 7675 S12E28 108 0070 CSO 05 006 BET 7676 N08E40 096 0010 BXO 07 002 BET 7669 N08W73 209 PLAGE 7670 N09W63 199 PLAGE 7674 S14W30 166 PLAGE 7677 N20W25 161 PLAGE REGIONS DUE TO RET NMBR LAT 7664 S13 036 7665 N03 029 LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 23 FEBRUARY, 1994 ------------------------------------------------------- BEGIN MAX END RGN LOC XRAY OP 245MHZ 10CM SWEEP SWF NO EVENTS OBSERVED POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 23 FEBRUARY, 1994 ----------------------------------------------------------- ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXT EAST SOUTH WEST NORTH CAR TYPE POL AREA OBSN 63 S20W30 S28W34 S14W54 S10W49 184 ISO POS 006 10830A 64 N85E86 N18W42 N85W90 N85W90 155 EXT 65 S26E40 S28E36 S16E21 S14E24 113 ISO POS 002 10830A SUMMARY OF FLARE EVENTS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY ------------------------------------------------ Date Begin Max End Xray Op Region Locn 2695 MHz 8800 MHz 15.4 GHz ------ ---- ---- ---- ---- -- ------ ------ --------- --------- --------- 22 Feb: 0224 0237 0251 C1.2 0448 0453 0459 B5.8 REGION FLARE STATISTICS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY ------------------------------------------------ C M X S 1 2 3 4 Total (%) -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --- ------ Uncorrellated: 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 002 (100.0) Total Events: 002 optical and x-ray. EVENTS WIT ---------------------------------------------------------------- Date Begin Max End Xray Op Region Locn Sweeps/Optical Observations ------ ---- ---- ---- ---- -- ------ ------ --------------------------- NO EVENTS OBSERVED. NOTES: All times are in Universal Time (UT). Characters preceding begin, max, and end times are defined as: B = Before, U = Uncertain, A = After. All times associated with x-ray flares (ex. flares which produce associated x-ray bursts) refer to the begin, max, and end times of the x-rays. Flares which are not associated with x-ray signatures use the optical observations to determine the begin, max, and end times. Acronyms used to identify sweeps and optical phenomena include: II = Type II Sweep Frequency Event III = Type III Sweep IV = Type IV Sweep V = Type V Sweep Continuum = Continuum Radio Event Loop = Loop Prominence System, Spray = Limb Spray, Surge = Bright Limb Surge, EPL = Eruptive Prominence on the Limb. ** End of Daily Report **