Xref: news.cs.tut.fi aus.radio:319 rec.radio.amateur.space:976 rec.radio.info:4163 Path: news.cs.tut.fi!news.funet.fi!news.tele.fi!uunet!cs.utexas.edu!howland.reston.ans.net!agate!msuinfo!harbinger.cc.monash.edu.au!bruce.cs.monash.edu.au!merlin!mel.dit.csiro.au!its.csiro.au!dmssyd.syd.dms.CSIRO.AU!wabbit.cc.uow.edu.au!news.ci.com.au!eram!dave From: dave@eram.esi.com.au (Dave Horsfall) Newsgroups: aus.radio,rec.radio.amateur.space,rec.radio.info Subject: Daily IPS Report - 22 Feb 94 Message-ID: <5204@eram.esi.com.au> Date: 22 Feb 94 02:47:30 GMT Followup-To: aus.radio,rec.radio.amateur.space Distribution: world Lines: 82 Approved: rec-radio-info@ve6mgs.ampr.ab.ca X-Subscribe-Info: Contact rwc@ips.oz.au to get these via e-mail IPS RADIO AND SPACE SERVICES AUSTRALIA Daily Solar And Geophysical Report Issued at 2330 UT 21 February 1994 Summary for 21 February and Forecast up to 24 February IPS Warning 06 was issued on 17 Feb and is current for interval 20-23 Feb. ----------------------------------------------------------- 1A. SOLAR SUMMARY Activity: very low Flares: none. Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number : 105/054 1B. SOLAR FORECAST 22 February 23 February 24 February Activity Low Low Low Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected Forecast 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number : 105/054 1C. SOLAR COMMENT None. ----------------------------------------------------------- 2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY Geomagnetic field at Learmonth : major storm Estimated Indices : A K Observed A Index 20 February Learmonth 45 2126 6664 Fredericksburg 54 13 Planetary 60 13 2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST DATE Ap CONDITIONS 22 Feb 50 Minor storm. 23 Feb 35 Active to minor storm. 24 Feb 20 Active to minor storm. 2C. MAGNETIC COMMENT Shock in field was observed at 0900Z 135nT. Major storm levels observed after shock. Shock due to M4 flare. 3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY LATITUDE BAND DATE LOW MIDDLE HIGH 21 Feb fair-normal fair-normal poor-fair PCA Event : In progress. 3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST LATITUDE BAND DATE LOW MIDDLE HIGH 22 Feb poor poor poor 23 Feb fair poor poor 24 Feb normal fair poor 3C. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION COMMENT Continuing geomagnetic activity is degrading global HF propagation conditions. PCA event has degraded high lat HF comms. ----------------------------------------------------------- 4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY MUFs at Sydney were 10-20% enhanced until dawn then depressed 10-20% T index: 64 4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST DATE T-index MUFs 22 Feb 0 About 20% below predicted monthly values. 23 Feb 15 About 15% below predicted monthly values. 24 Feb 20 About 15% below predicted monthly values. Predicted Monthly T Index for February is 30. 4C. AUSTRALIAN REGION COMMENT Degraded and depressed HF conditions are expected over the next three days due to recurrent/flare and dissappearing filament activity. -- Dave Horsfall (VK2KFU) VK2KFU @ VK2OP.NSW.AUS.OC PGP 2.3 dave@esi.COM.AU ...munnari!esi.COM.AU!dave available