Lines: 57
Subject: (PKT): WARNING: Potential Major Geomagnetic Storm Warning
Followup-To: rec.radio.amateur.misc,rec.radio.shortwave
Approved: rec-radio-info@ve6mgs.ampr.ab.ca
Path: news.cs.tut.fi!news.funet.fi!sunic!pipex!howland.reston.ans.net!news.intercon.com!udel!rochester!cornell!uw-beaver!nntp.cs.ubc.ca!alberta!ve6mgs!usenet
Date: Sun, 20 Feb 1994 18:05:42 MST
From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
Newsgroups: rec.radio.info
Message-ID: <$pgsw4051a.1994@ampr.org>

bid: $PGSW4051A
GEOMAG. STORM WARNING 20FEB94
PACKET RADIO REPORT
SOLAR TERRESTRIAL DISPATCH
(PACKET: VE6MGS@VE6MC.#EDM.AB.CAN.NOAM)
(INTERNET: COLER@SOLAR.STANFORD.EDU)


POTENTIAL MAJOR GEOMAGNETIC STORM WARNING
-----------------------------------------

    HIGH RISK PERIOD:  22 - 23 February (UT days)
MODERATE RISK PERIOD:  Late 21 February - 23 February

POTENTIAL LOW-MIDDLE LAT
      POT

      POT

POTENTIAL PEAK LOW-MIDDLE LAT
      POT

  EXPECTED DOMINATING LOW-MIDDLE LAT
        EXPECTED DOMINATING HIGH LAT

   POT
        POT
          EXPECTED HF PROPAGATION CONDITIONS:  FAIR

POTENTIAL FOR MIDDLE LAT
        POT
          EXPECTED HF PROPAGATION CONDITIONS:  FAIR - OCCASIONALLY VERY POOR

  POT
        POT
          EXPECTED HF PROPAGATION CONDITIONS:  USELESS

POTENTIAL RISK FOR GEOSYNCHRONOUS MAGNETOPAUSE CROSSINGS:  50% PROBABLE

SUSPECTED SOURCE OF OBSERVED/EXPECTED ACT
        Long-decay class M4.0 proton flare on 20 February.


---------------------------------       ---------------------------------
EST. POT
---------------------------------       ---------------------------------
       SEVERE STORM : 25 %                 LOW LAT
        MAJOR STORM : 30 %              MIDDLE LAT
        MINOR STORM : 35 %                HIGH LAT
     ACT
---------------------------------       ---------------------------------
 PROBABLE SI ASSOCIATION : 90 %          EST

ESTIMATED FORECAST PEAK PLANETARY 24-HOUR A-INDEX DURING STORM: 50


**  END OF PACKET WARNING (1/1)  **