Xref: news.cs.tut.fi rec.radio.amateur.misc:46983 rec.radio.shortwave:27711 rec.radio.info:4130 Lines: 168 Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 18 February Followup-To: rec.radio.amateur.misc,rec.radio.shortwave Approved: rec-radio-info@ve6mgs.ampr.ab.ca Path: news.cs.tut.fi!news.funet.fi!sunic!pipex!howland.reston.ans.net!news.intercon.com!udel!rochester!cornell!uw-beaver!nntp.cs.ubc.ca!alberta!ve6mgs!usenet Date: Sun, 20 Feb 1994 14:18:32 MST From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler) Newsgroups: rec.radio.amateur.misc,rec.radio.shortwave,rec.radio.info Message-ID: <9402202118.AA12303@rho.uleth.ca> /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\ DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACT 18 FEBRUARY, 1994 /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\ (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data) SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACT ------------------------------------------------------------ !!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 049, 02/18/94 10.7 FLUX=106.3 90-AVG=106 SSN=077 BKI=0123 1112 BAI=005 BGND-XRAY=B2.0 FLU1=1.2E+06 FLU10=1.4E+04 PKI=2223 2213 PAI=007 BOU-DEV=004,006,010,024,008,009,006,019 DEV-AVG=010 NT SWF=00:000 XRAY-MAX= C1.1 @ 0543UT XRAY-MIN= B1.8 @ 0327UT XRAY-AVG= B2.7 NEUTN-MAX= +003% @ 2020UT NEUTN-MIN= -001% @ 1525UT NEUTN-AVG= +0.4% PCA-MAX= +0.1DB @ 2210UT PCA-MIN= -0.3DB @ 0450UT PCA-AVG= -0.0DB BOUTF-MAX=55345NT @ 2336UT BOUTF-MIN=55328NT @ 1834UT BOUTF-AVG=55337NT GOES7-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT GOES7-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT G7-AVG=+074,+000,+000 GOES6-MAX=P:+129NT@ 1909UT GOES6-MIN=N:-064NT@ 0643UT G6-AVG=+096,+035,-025 FLUXFCST=STD:110,110,110;SESC:110,110,110 BAI/PAI-FCST=015,010,005/015,012,010 KFCST=3334 4333 2224 4221 27DAY-AP=007,005 27DAY-KP=3212 2122 2212 2122 WARNINGS= ALERTS= !!END-DATA!! NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 17 FEB 94 was 45.0. The Full Kp Indices for 17 FEB 94 are: 2- 2o 3- 3- 2+ 2+ 2o 2- The 3-Hr Ap Indices for 17 FEB 94 are: 6 8 14 11 10 9 8 7 Greater than 2 MeV Electron Fluence for 18 FEB is: 4.2E+08 SYNOPSIS OF ACT -------------------- Solar activity was low. Region 7671 (N11E15) produced a C1/0F flare at 18/0542Z. A 5 degree filament near S20E05 disappeared between 17/1857Z and 18/1218Z. Solar activity forecast: solar activity is expected to be low through the period. The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. High latitudes experienced some active levels during the period. Geophysical activity forecast: the geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled for most of the period due to coronal hole effects. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected by the end of the period. Event probabilities 19 feb-21 feb Class M 10/10/10 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF Green Geomagnetic activity probabilities 19 feb-21 feb A. Middle Latitudes Active 25/25/20 Minor Storm 15/15/10 Major-Severe Storm 05/05/01 B. High Latitudes Active 25/25/25 Minor Storm 15/15/15 Major-Severe Storm 05/05/05 HF propagation conditions were generally near-normal over all regions. Conditions should continue near-normal over the next 72 hours, although high latitudes may see some sporadic minor signal degradation due to possible effects from a coronal hole. COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS ======================================================== REGIONS WIT ----------------------------------------------------------- NMBR LOCATION LO AREA Z LL NN MAG TYPE 7668 N10W82 284 0020 AXX 01 002 ALPHA 7669 N08W08 210 0010 CSO 04 003 BET 7670 N10W00 202 0010 AXX 04 003 ALPHA 7671 N11E14 188 0380 CKO 08 016 BET 7673 N08W65 267 0030 BXO 04 003 BET 7672 N03E02 200 PLAGE REGIONS DUE TO RET NMBR LAT 7663 N13 89 LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 18 FEBRUARY, 1994 ------------------------------------------------------- BEGIN MAX END RGN LOC XRAY OP 245MHZ 10CM SWEEP 0328 0328 0328 320 POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 18 FEBRUARY, 1994 ----------------------------------------------------------- BEGIN MAX END LOCATION TYPE SIZE DUR II IV NO EVENTS OBSERVED INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 18/2400Z --------------------------------------------------- ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXT EAST SOUTH WEST NORTH CAR TYPE POL AREA OBSN NO DAT SUMMARY OF FLARE EVENTS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY ------------------------------------------------ Date Begin Max End Xray Op Region Locn 2695 MHz 8800 MHz 15.4 GHz ------ ---- ---- ---- ---- -- ------ ------ --------- --------- --------- 17 Feb: 0300 0300 0303 SF 7670 N11E23 1016 1023 1029 B8.1 1100 1111 1126 C1.7 REGION FLARE STATISTICS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY ------------------------------------------------ C M X S 1 2 3 4 Total (%) -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --- ------ Region 7670: 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 001 (33.3) Uncorrellated: 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 002 (66.7) Total Events: 003 optical and x-ray. EVENTS WIT ---------------------------------------------------------------- Date Begin Max End Xray Op Region Locn Sweeps/Optical Observations ------ ---- ---- ---- ---- -- ------ ------ --------------------------- 17 Feb: 1100 1111 1126 C1.7 III NOTES: All times are in Universal Time (UT). Characters preceding begin, max, and end times are defined as: B = Before, U = Uncertain, A = After. All times associated with x-ray flares (ex. flares which produce associated x-ray bursts) refer to the begin, max, and end times of the x-rays. Flares which are not associated with x-ray signatures use the optical observations to determine the begin, max, and end times. Acronyms used to identify sweeps and optical phenomena include: II = Type II Sweep Frequency Event III = Type III Sweep IV = Type IV Sweep V = Type V Sweep Continuum = Continuum Radio Event Loop = Loop Prominence System, Spray = Limb Spray, Surge = Bright Limb Surge, EPL = Eruptive Prominence on the Limb. ** End of Daily Report **