Xref: news.cs.tut.fi rec.radio.amateur.misc:45533 rec.radio.shortwave:26774 rec.radio.info:3774 Lines: 181 Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 23 January Followup-To: rec.radio.amateur.misc,rec.radio.shortwave Approved: rec-radio-info@ve6mgs.ampr.ab.ca Path: news.cs.tut.fi!news.funet.fi!sunic!pipex!howland.reston.ans.net!math.ohio-state.edu!cyber2.cyberstore.ca!nntp.cs.ubc.ca!alberta!ve6mgs!usenet Date: Sun, 23 Jan 1994 21:47:20 MST From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler) Newsgroups: rec.radio.amateur.misc,rec.radio.shortwave,rec.radio.info Message-ID: <9401240447.AA21472@rho.uleth.ca> /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\ DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACT 23 JANUARY, 1994 /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\ (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data) SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACT ----------------------------------------------------------- !!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 023, 01/23/94 10.7 FLUX=118.3 90-AVG=103 SSN=105 BKI=2111 0102 BAI=003 BGND-XRAY=B2.5 FLU1=6.0E+05 FLU10=9.5E+03 PKI=2212 2122 PAI=005 BOU-DEV=011,008,008,007,003,008,002,010 DEV-AVG=007 NT SWF=00:000 XRAY-MAX= C2.9 @ 1303UT XRAY-MIN= B2.2 @ 0307UT XRAY-AVG= B3.4 NEUTN-MAX= +001% @ 2140UT NEUTN-MIN= -003% @ 0610UT NEUTN-AVG= -0.2% PCA-MAX= +0.1DB @ 0755UT PCA-MIN= -0.3DB @ 1530UT PCA-AVG= +0.0DB BOUTF-MAX=55349NT @ 1502UT BOUTF-MIN=55324NT @ 1906UT BOUTF-AVG=55339NT GOES7-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT GOES7-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT G7-AVG=+073,+000,+000 GOES6-MAX=P:+132NT@ 1657UT GOES6-MIN=N:-051NT@ 0721UT G6-AVG=+097,+029,-027 FLUXFCST=STD:110,110,105;SESC:110,110,105 BAI/PAI-FCST=005,005,020/010,010,018 KFCST=1111 2111 1111 2111 27DAY-AP=005,003 27DAY-KP=1121 2211 0100 1122 WARNINGS=*SWF ALERTS= !!END-DATA!! NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 22 JAN 94 was 50.0. The Full Kp Indices for 22 JAN 94 are: 3+ 2- 1+ 2- 2- 1+ 2- 2o SYNOPSIS OF ACT -------------------- Solar activity was low for the past 24 hours. Region 7654 (N09W21) produced one C-class flare and maintained its general complexity in white light and H-alpha. New Region 7660 (S08E71) rotated over the east limb as bright plage that may contain small spots. Surging was reported on the east limb near N08 and S01 that may be signaling the return of regions that were active last rotation. STD: Region 7654 has been reclassified as having a delta configuration. Solar activity forecast: solar activity is expected to be low. Isolated C-class flares are possible from Region 7654. The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Geophysical activity forecast: the geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet for the next two days, becoming active by the end of the forecast period in response to disturbed solar wind associated with a filament disappearance on 21 Jan and a positive polarity, cross-equatorial coronal hole near solar disk center today. Event probabilities 24 jan-26 jan Class M 05/05/05 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF Green Geomagnetic activity probabilities 24 jan-26 jan A. Middle Latitudes Active 05/05/30 Minor Storm 01/05/20 Major-Severe Storm 01/01/05 B. High Latitudes Active 05/05/35 Minor Storm 01/05/25 Major-Severe Storm 01/01/05 HF propagation conditions were normal over all regions. Good propagation is expected to persist over the next 48 hours, through 25 January inclusive. High and polar latitude paths may see minor signal degradation return on 26 January in response to the above-mentioned filament and coronal hole related disturbances. COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS ======================================================== REGIONS WIT ---------------------------------------------------------- NMBR LOCATION LO AREA Z LL NN MAG TYPE 7652 N05W36 220 0110 HSX 02 001 ALPHA 7654 N10W22 206 0560 DKI 08 023 BET 7657 N13W50 234 0060 DAO 08 009 BET 7658 N12E02 182 0030 CRO 04 007 BET 7659 S14E36 148 0010 BXO 07 004 BET 7660 S08E70 114 0000 AXX 00 001 ALPHA REGIONS DUE TO RET NMBR LAT 7645 N13 085 7646 S09 087 7649 S19 079 LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 23 JANUARY, 1994 ------------------------------------------------------ BEGIN MAX END RGN LOC XRAY OP 245MHZ 10CM SWEEP 1544 1544 1545 170 1822 1824 1824 180 POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 23 JANUARY, 1994 ---------------------------------------------------------- BEGIN MAX END LOCATION TYPE SIZE DUR II IV NO EVENTS OBSERVED INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 23/2400Z --------------------------------------------------- ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXT EAST SOUTH WEST NORTH CAR TYPE POL AREA OBSN NO DAT SUMMARY OF FLARE EVENTS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY ------------------------------------------------ Date Begin Max End Xray Op Region Locn 2695 MHz 8800 MHz 15.4 GHz ------ ---- ---- ---- ---- -- ------ ------ --------- --------- --------- 22 Jan: 0102 0109 0114 C1.6 SF 7654 N10W00 0411 0414 0420 SF 7657 N11W26 0619 0622 0625 B3.5 1911 1919 1926 B6.2 SF 7654 N08W10 REGION FLARE STATISTICS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY ------------------------------------------------ C M X S 1 2 3 4 Total (%) -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --- ------ Region 7654: 1 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 002 (50.0) Region 7657: 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 001 (25.0) Uncorrellated: 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 001 (25.0) Total Events: 004 optical and x-ray. EVENTS WIT ---------------------------------------------------------------- Date Begin Max End Xray Op Region Locn Sweeps/Optical Observations ------ ---- ---- ---- ---- -- ------ ------ --------------------------- 22 Jan: 0102 0109 0114 C1.6 SF 7654 N10W00 III 1911 1919 1926 B6.2 SF 7654 N08W10 III NOTES: All times are in Universal Time (UT). Characters preceding begin, max, and end times are defined as: B = Before, U = Uncertain, A = After. All times associated with x-ray flares (ex. flares which produce associated x-ray bursts) refer to the begin, max, and end times of the x-rays. Flares which are not associated with x-ray signatures use the optical observations to determine the begin, max, and end times. Acronyms used to identify sweeps and optical phenomena include: II = Type II Sweep Frequency Event III = Type III Sweep IV = Type IV Sweep V = Type V Sweep Continuum = Continuum Radio Event Loop = Loop Prominence System, Spray = Limb Spray, Surge = Bright Limb Surge, EPL = Eruptive Prominence on the Limb. ** End of Daily Report **