Xref: news.cs.tut.fi rec.radio.amateur.misc:45425 rec.radio.shortwave:26690 rec.radio.info:3738 Lines: 191 Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 20 January Followup-To: rec.radio.amateur.misc,rec.radio.shortwave Approved: rec-radio-info@ve6mgs.ampr.ab.ca Path: news.cs.tut.fi!news.funet.fi!sunic!pipex!uunet!destroyer!nntp.cs.ubc.ca!alberta!adec23!ve6mgs!usenet Date: Thu, 20 Jan 1994 21:34:58 MST From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler) Newsgroups: rec.radio.amateur.misc,rec.radio.shortwave,rec.radio.info Message-ID: <9401210435.AA07801@rho.uleth.ca> /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\ DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY 20 JANUARY, 1994 /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\ (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data) SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 20 JANUARY, 1994 ----------------------------------------------------------- !!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 020, 01/20/94 10.7 FLUX=105 90-AVG=103 SSN=054 BKI=3333 2221 BAI=010 BGND-XRAY=B1.8 FLU1=3.4E+06 FLU10=9.8E+03 PKI=3333 3232 PAI=012 BOU-DEV=025,032,037,020,013,019,017,008 DEV-AVG=021 NT SWF=00:000 XRAY-MAX= C1.0 @ 0018UT XRAY-MIN= B1.7 @ 1734UT XRAY-AVG= B3.2 NEUTN-MAX= +002% @ 1530UT NEUTN-MIN= -001% @ 1955UT NEUTN-AVG= -0.0% PCA-MAX= +0.1DB @ 1935UT PCA-MIN= -0.1DB @ 1530UT PCA-AVG= -0.0DB BOUTF-MAX=55353NT @ 0601UT BOUTF-MIN=55325NT @ 1909UT BOUTF-AVG=55341NT GOES7-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT GOES7-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT G7-AVG=+072,+000,+000 GOES6-MAX=P:+127NT@ 1715UT GOES6-MIN=N:-072NT@ 0529UT G6-AVG=+095,+030,-030 FLUXFCST=STD:105,105,100;SESC:105,105,100 BAI/PAI-FCST=020,020,015/015,015,018 KFCST=3333 3333 3333 3333 27DAY-AP=008,007 27DAY-KP=2123 3322 1313 2122 WARNINGS=*SWF ALERTS= !!END-DATA!! NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 19 JAN 94 was 48.3. The Full Kp Indices for 19 JAN 94 are: 3+ 5- 5o 3o 4- 2o 3o 3- SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY -------------------- Solar activity was at very low levels. Region 7654 (N08E18) continues to be the largest and most active Region on the disk. Solar activity forecast: solar activity is expected to be at low levels with a slight potential for an M class flare from Region 7654 (N08E18). STD: Magnetic shear near the northern end of the delta within Region 7654 has remained relatively unchanged over the last 24 hours. Although there is an outside chance for another major flare from this region, nothing significant is likely to be observed unless new flux emerges to perturb the current relatively stable configuration. This is further supported by the gradually declining background x-ray levels together with the relatively low frequency of small-scale flare activity and lack of spot growth. The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Geophysical activity forecast: the geomagnetic field is expected to be at unsettled to active levels. STD: The field may become slightly disturbed on 22 January due to a negative polarity transequatorial coronal hole which is approximately one day beyond the central meridan. Periods of minor to major storming will be possible over the high and polar latitudes. Event probabilities 21 jan-23 jan Class M 10/05/05 Class X 05/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF Green Geomagnetic activity probabilities 21 jan-23 jan A. Middle Latitudes Active 40/45/15 Minor Storm 15/10/05 Major-Severe Storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 40/40/10 Minor Storm 15/15/05 Major-Severe Storm 01/01/01 HF propagation conditions were near-normal over all regions. Subsiding levels of geomagnetic activity prompted improved conditions over the high and polar latitude paths. Conditions should continue near-normal with only intermittent minor signal degradation for transauroral night-sector circuits. Signals are expected to become increasingly disturbed on 22 January if the anticipated disturbance from the well placed coronal hole noted above arrives. Poor to occasionally very poor propagation could occassionally exist over the higher latitude paths during that period. Otherwise, conditions should continue near-normal. COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS ======================================================== REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 20/2400Z JANUARY ---------------------------------------------------------- NMBR LOCATION LO AREA Z LL NN MAG TYPE 7652 N04E04 219 0140 CSO 03 002 BETA 7654 N09E19 204 0530 EKI 11 032 BETA-DELTA 7656 S22W36 259 PLAGE REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 21 JANUARY TO 23 JANUARY NMBR LAT LO 7647 S15 096 LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 20 JANUARY, 1994 ------------------------------------------------------ A. ENERGETIC EVENTS: BEGIN MAX END RGN LOC XRAY OP 245MHZ 10CM SWEEP NONE POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 20 JANUARY, 1994 ---------------------------------------------------------- BEGIN MAX END LOCATION TYPE SIZE DUR II IV NO EVENTS OBSERVED INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 20/2400Z --------------------------------------------------- ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS EAST SOUTH WEST NORTH CAR TYPE POL AREA OBSN 57 N20W14 S14W21 S00W25 N24W14 253 ISO NEG 005 10830A 58 N20E55 S10E41 N08E34 N34E48 189 ISO POS 014 10830A SUMMARY OF FLARE EVENTS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY ------------------------------------------------ Date Begin Max End Xray Op Region Locn 2695 MHz 8800 MHz 15.4 GHz ------ ---- ---- ---- ---- -- ------ ------ --------- --------- --------- 19 Jan: 0306 0316 0322 C4.0 SF 7654 N05E40 47 25 0449 0452 0454 C1.0 0615 0619 0623 B7.5 0629 0636 0641 B6.6 0826 0830 0833 B4.7 39 62 1141 1146 1150 C2.8 1143 1144 1152 SF 7654 N09E33 16 43 28 1335 1354 1410 C4.2 SF 7654 N05E40 2012 2016 2020 B4.5 REGION FLARE STATISTICS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY ------------------------------------------------ C M X S 1 2 3 4 Total (%) -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --- ------ Region 7654: 2 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 003 (33.3) Uncorrellated: 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 006 (66.7) Total Events: 009 optical and x-ray. EVENTS WITH SWEEPS AND/OR OPTICAL PHENOMENA FOR THE LAST UTC DAY ---------------------------------------------------------------- Date Begin Max End Xray Op Region Locn Sweeps/Optical Observations ------ ---- ---- ---- ---- -- ------ ------ --------------------------- 19 Jan: 0615 0619 0623 B7.5 III NOTES: All times are in Universal Time (UT). Characters preceding begin, max, and end times are defined as: B = Before, U = Uncertain, A = After. All times associated with x-ray flares (ex. flares which produce associated x-ray bursts) refer to the begin, max, and end times of the x-rays. Flares which are not associated with x-ray signatures use the optical observations to determine the begin, max, and end times. Acronyms used to identify sweeps and optical phenomena include: II = Type II Sweep Frequency Event III = Type III Sweep IV = Type IV Sweep V = Type V Sweep Continuum = Continuum Radio Event Loop = Loop Prominence System, Spray = Limb Spray, Surge = Bright Limb Surge, EPL = Eruptive Prominence on the Limb. ** End of Daily Report **