Xref: news.cs.tut.fi rec.radio.amateur.misc:45100 rec.radio.shortwave:26453 rec.radio.info:3643 Lines: 369 Subject: Weekly Solar Terrestrial Forecast & Review for 14 January Followup-To: rec.radio.amateur.misc,rec.radio.shortwave Approved: rec-radio-info@ve6mgs.ampr.ab.ca Path: news.cs.tut.fi!news.funet.fi!sunic!pipex!howland.reston.ans.net!math.ohio-state.edu!cyber2.cyberstore.ca!nntp.cs.ubc.ca!alberta!adec23!ve6mgs!usenet Date: Fri, 14 Jan 1994 06:44:12 MST From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler) Newsgroups: rec.radio.amateur.misc,rec.radio.shortwave,rec.radio.info Message-ID: <9401141344.AA03466@rho.uleth.ca> --- SOLAR TERRESTRIAL FORECAST AND REVIEW --- January 14 to January 23, 1994 Report Released by Solar Terrestrial Dispatch P.O. Box 357, Stirling, Alberta, Canada T0K 2E0 Accessible BBS System: (403) 756-3008 --------- SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY FORECASTS AT A GLANCE ---------------------------------------------------- |10.7 cm|HF Propagation +/- CON|SID AU.BKSR DX| Mag| Aurora | |SolrFlx|LO MI HI PO SWF %MUF %|ENH LO MI HI LO MI HI %|K Ap|LO MI HI| --|-------|-----------------------|-------------------------|----|--------| 14| 097 | G G P F 40 -10 70| 40 NA NA NA 01 20 30 30|4 15|NV NV MO| 15| 105 |VG G F F 40 00 75| 40 NA NA NA 01 15 25 30|3 12|NV NV MO| 16| 115 |VG G F F 40 +05 70| 40 NA NA NA 01 10 20 35|2 10|NV NV LO| 17| 115 |VG G F F 40 +10 70| 40 NA NA NA 01 05 15 35|2 10|NV NV LO| 18| 120 |VG G F F 40 +10 70| 40 NA NA NA 01 05 15 40|2 10|NV NV LO| 19| 125 |VG G F F 40 +15 65| 40 NA NA NA 01 05 15 45|2 08|NV NV LO| 20| 125 |VG G F F 40 +15 65| 40 NA NA NA 01 05 15 45|2 08|NV NV LO| 21| 130 |VG G F F 40 +20 65| 40 NA NA NA 01 05 15 45|2 08|NV NV LO| 22| 130 |VG G F F 40 +20 65| 40 NA NA NA 02 10 20 45|2 10|NV NV LO| 23| 135 |VG G P P 40 +15 65| 40 NA NA NA 02 20 30 40|3 12|NV LO MO| PEAK PLANETARY 10-DAY GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY OUTLOOK (14 JAN - 23 JAN) ________________________________________________________________________ | EXTREMELY SEVERE | | | | | | | | | | | HIGH | | VERY SEVERE STORM | | | | | | | | | | | HIGH | | SEVERE STORM | | | | | | | | | | | MODERATE | | MAJOR STORM | | | | | | | | | | | LOW - MOD. | | MINOR STORM | | | | | | | | | | | LOW | | VERY ACTIVE | * | | | | | | | | | | NONE | | ACTIVE |***|** | | | | | | | | * | NONE | | UNSETTLED |***|***|***|** |** |** |** |** |** |***| NONE | | QUIET |***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***| NONE | | VERY QUIET |***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***| NONE | |-------------------|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|------------| | Geomagnetic Field |Fri|Sat|Sun|Mon|Tue|Wed|Thu|Fri|Sat|Sun| Anomaly | | Conditions | Given in 8-hour UT intervals | Intensity | |________________________________________________________________________| CONFIDENCE LEVEL: 75% NOTES: Predicted geomagnetic activity is based heavily on recurrent phenomena. Transient energetic solar events cannot be predicted reliably over periods in excess of several days. Hence, there may be some deviations from the predictions due to the unpredictable transient solar component. 60-DAY GRAPHICAL ANALYSIS OF GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY ____________________________________________________________ 51 | J | 48 | J | 46 | J | 43 | J | 41 | J | 38 | M J | 36 | MM J | 33 | MM J | 31 | MM J | 28 | MM J | 26 | MM J | 23 | MM J | 20 | AMM J A A| 18 | AA AMM J A AAA AA| 15 | AA AMM AJ AA AAAA AAA| 13 | AA AMM AJ AAU U AAAA AAA| 10 | AA AMM AJ AAU U AAAAU U AAA| 8 |U AAU U U AMMUU AJ U UAAUUUUUUU AAAAU U U AAA| 5 |UQAAU Q QU U AMMUUQAJQUUU UAAUUUUUUUUU AAAAUQ UQU AAA| 3 |UQAAUQQQQQUQQUQAMMUUQAJQUUUQQUAAUUUUUUUUUQQQQAAAAUQQUQUQQAAA| 0 |UQAAUQQQQQUQQUQAMMUUQAJQUUUQQUAAUUUUUUUUUQQQQAAAAUQQUQUQQAAA| ------------------------------------------------------------ Chart Start Date: Day #320 NOTES: This graph is determined by plotting the greater of either the planetary A-index or the Boulder A-index. Graph lines are labelled according to the severity of the activity which occurred on each day. The left- hand column represents the associated A-Index for that day. Q = Quiet, U = Unsettled, A = Active, M = Minor Storm, J = Major Storm, and S = Severe Storm. CUMULATIVE GRAPHICAL CHART OF THE 10.7 CM SOLAR RADIO FLUX ---------------------------------------------------------- ____________________________________________________________ 151 | | 148 | * | 145 | ** | 142 | * ** | 139 | * ***** | 136 | * ***** * | 133 | ** ****** * | 130 | ** ****** ** | 127 | ************ | 124 | ************** | 121 | *************** | 118 | **************** | 115 | ***************** | 112 | ***************** | 109 | * ******************* | 106 | * * * ******************* | 103 | * ***** *** ******************** | 100 |***** ** ********* ********************** | 097 |********** ********** *********************** | 094 |********** ************ ************************| 091 |*********** *************** **************************| 088 |***************************** **************************| 085 |******************************* ****************************| 082 |************************************************************| ------------------------------------------------------------ Chart Start: Day #320 GRAPHICAL ANALYSIS OF 90-DAY AVERAGE SOLAR FLUX ----------------------------------------------- ____________________________________________________________ 103 | | 102 | *****| 101 | ***********| 100 | ****************| 099 | *********************| 098 | *********************************| 097 | ***************************************| 096 | ******************************************| 095 | **********************************************| 094 | **********************************************************| 093 |************************************************************| 092 |************************************************************| ------------------------------------------------------------ Chart Start: Day #320 NOTES: The 10.7 cm solar radio flux is plotted from data reported by the Penticton Radio Observatory (formerly the ARO from Ottawa). High solar flux levels denote higher levels of activity and a greater number of sunspot groups on the Sun. The 90-day mean solar flux graph is charted from the 90-day mean of the 10.7 cm solar radio flux. CUMULATIVE GRAPHICAL CHART OF SUNSPOT NUMBERS --------------------------------------------- ____________________________________________________________ 161 | | 154 | * | 147 | * | 140 | ** | 133 | ** * *** | 126 | *** ***** | 119 | * *** ****** | 112 | ** * *** ****** | 105 | ** ******* ****** | 098 | ** * * ** ******* ******* | 091 | *** ** ** ****************** | 084 | ********** ****************** | 077 | * * *********** ****************** | 070 | ** * ************ ******************** | 063 | **** ************ ******************** * | 056 | ********* ************** ************************| 049 | ************************* * * ************************| 042 |************************** ** **************************| 035 |************************** * ** **************************| 028 |*************************** * *** **************************| 021 |************************************************************| ------------------------------------------------------------ Chart Start: Day #320 NOTES: The graphical chart of sunspot numbers is created from the daily sunspot number counts as reported by the SESC. HF RADIO SIGNAL PROPAGATION PREDICTIONS (14 JAN - 23 JAN) High Latitude Paths ________________________________________________________ | EXTREMELY GOOD | | | | | | | | | | | | VERY GOOD | | | | | | | | | | | CONFIDENCE | GOOD | | | | | | | | | | | LEVEL | FAIR | * | **|***|***|***|***|***|***|***| **| ------- | POOR |* *|* | | | | | | | |* | 70% | VERY POOR | | | | | | | | | | | | EXTREMELY POOR | | | | | | | | | | | |----------------|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---| | PROPAGATION |Fri|Sat|Sun|Mon|Tue|Wed|Thu|Fri|Sat|Sun| | QUALITY | Given in 8 Local-Hour Intervals | -------------------------------------------------------- Middle Latitude Paths ________________________________________________________ | EXTREMELY GOOD | | | | | | | | | | | | VERY GOOD | | | | | * | * | * | * | * | | CONFIDENCE | GOOD | **|***|***|***|* *|* *|* *|* *|* *|***| LEVEL | FAIR |* | | | | | | | | | | ------- | POOR | | | | | | | | | | | 70% | VERY POOR | | | | | | | | | | | | EXTREMELY POOR | | | | | | | | | | | |----------------|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---| | PROPAGATION |Fri|Sat|Sun|Mon|Tue|Wed|Thu|Fri|Sat|Sun| | QUALITY | Given in 8 Local-Hour Intervals | -------------------------------------------------------- Low Latitude Paths ________________________________________________________ | EXTREMELY GOOD | | | | | | | | | | | | VERY GOOD | | * | * | **| **| **| **| **| **| **| CONFIDENCE | GOOD |***|* *|* *|* |* |* |* |* |* |* | LEVEL | FAIR | | | | | | | | | | | ------- | POOR | | | | | | | | | | | 70% | VERY POOR | | | | | | | | | | | | EXTREMELY POOR | | | | | | | | | | | |----------------|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---| | PROPAGATION |Fri|Sat|Sun|Mon|Tue|Wed|Thu|Fri|Sat|Sun| | QUALITY | Given in 8 Local-Hour Intervals | -------------------------------------------------------- NOTES: NORTHERN HEMISPHERE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE High latitudes >= 55 deg. N. | High latitudes >= 55 deg. S. Middle latitudes >= 40 < 55 deg. N. | Middle latitudes >= 30 < 55 deg. S. Low latitudes < 40 deg. N. | Low latitudes < 30 deg. S. POTENTIAL VHF DX PROPAGATION PREDICTIONS (14 JAN - 23 JAN) INCLUDES SID AND AURORAL BACKSCATTER ENHANCEMENT PREDICTIONS HIGH LATITUDES __________________________________________________ ___________________ | FORECAST | Given in 8 hour local time intervals | |SWF/SID ENHANCEMENT| |CONFIDENCE|Fri|Sat|Sun|Mon|Tue|Wed|Thu|Fri|Sat|Sun| |F|S|S|M|T|W|T|F|S|S| |__________|___|___|___|___|___|___|___|___|___|___| |-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-| | 0% |***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***| 0%|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*| | 20% |***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***| 20%|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*| | 40% |***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***| 40%| | | | | | | | | | | | 60% | * | * | * | * | * | * | * | * | * | * | 60%| | | | | | | | | | | | 80% | | | | | | | | | | | 80%| | | | | | | | | | | | 100% | | | | | | | | | | |100%| | | | | | | | | | | |==========|===|===|===|===|===|===|===|===|===|===| |-------------------| | 100% | | | | | | | | | | |100%| | | | | | | | | | | | 80% | | | | | | | | | | | 80%| | | | | | | | | | | | 60% | | | | | | | | | | | 60%| | | | | | | | | | | | 40% | * | * | * | * | **| **| **| **| **| * | 40%| | | | | | | | | | | | 20% |***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***| 20%| | | | | | | | | |*| | 0% |***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***| 0%|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*| |----------|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---| |-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-| |CHANCE OF |Fri|Sat|Sun|Mon|Tue|Wed|Thu|Fri|Sat|Sun| |F|S|S|M|T|W|T|F|S|S| | VHF DX | Given in 8 hour local time intervals | |AURORAL BACKSCATTER| |__________|_______________________________________| |___________________| MIDDLE LATITUDES __________________________________________________ ___________________ | FORECAST | Given in 8 hour local time intervals | |SWF/SID ENHANCEMENT| |CONFIDENCE|Fri|Sat|Sun|Mon|Tue|Wed|Thu|Fri|Sat|Sun| |F|S|S|M|T|W|T|F|S|S| |__________|___|___|___|___|___|___|___|___|___|___| |-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-| | 0% |***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***| 0%|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*| | 20% |***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***| 20%|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*| | 40% |***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***| 40%|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*| | 60% |***|***|***|***|* *|* *|* *|* *|* *|* *| 60%| | | | | | | | | | | | 80% | | | | | | | | | | | 80%| | | | | | | | | | | | 100% | | | | | | | | | | |100%| | | | | | | | | | | |==========|===|===|===|===|===|===|===|===|===|===| |-------------------| | 100% | | | | | | | | | | |100%| | | | | | | | | | | | 80% | | | | | | | | | | | 80%| | | | | | | | | | | | 60% | | | | | * | * | * | * | * | * | 60%| | | | | | | | | | | | 40% |***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***| 40%| | | | | | | | | | | | 20% |***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***| 20%| | | | | | | | | |*| | 0% |***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***| 0%|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*| |----------|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---| |-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-| |CHANCE OF |Fri|Sat|Sun|Mon|Tue|Wed|Thu|Fri|Sat|Sun| |F|S|S|M|T|W|T|F|S|S| | VHF DX | Given in 8 hour local time intervals | |AURORAL BACKSCATTER| |__________|_______________________________________| |___________________| LOW LATITUDES __________________________________________________ ___________________ | FORECAST | Given in 8 hour local time intervals | |SWF/SID ENHANCEMENT| |CONFIDENCE|Fri|Sat|Sun|Mon|Tue|Wed|Thu|Fri|Sat|Sun| |F|S|S|M|T|W|T|F|S|S| |__________|___|___|___|___|___|___|___|___|___|___| |-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-| | 0% |***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***| 0%|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*| | 20% |***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***| 20%|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*| | 40% |***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***| 40%|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*| | 60% |** |** |** |***|***|***|***|***|***|***| 60%| | | | | | | | | | | | 80% | | | | | | | | | | | 80%| | | | | | | | | | | | 100% | | | | | | | | | | |100%| | | | | | | | | | | |==========|===|===|===|===|===|===|===|===|===|===| |-------------------| | 100% | | | | | | | | | | |100%| | | | | | | | | | | | 80% | | | | | | | | | | | 80%| | | | | | | | | | | | 60% | * | * | * | **| **| **| **| **| **| **| 60%| | | | | | | | | | | | 40% |***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***| 40%| | | | | | | | | | | | 20% |***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***| 20%| | | | | | | | | | | | 0% |***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***| 0%|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*|*| |----------|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---| |-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-|-| |CHANCE OF |Fri|Sat|Sun|Mon|Tue|Wed|Thu|Fri|Sat|Sun| |F|S|S|M|T|W|T|F|S|S| | VHF DX | Given in 8 hour local time intervals | |AURORAL BACKSCATTER| |__________|_______________________________________| |___________________| NOTES: These VHF DX prediction charts are defined for the 30 MHz to 220 MHz bands. They are based primarily on phenomena which can affect VHF DX propagation globally. They should be used only as a guide to potential DX conditions on VHF bands. Latitudinal boundaries are the same as those for the HF predictions charts. AURORAL ACTIVITY PREDICTIONS (14 JAN - 23 JAN) High Latitude Locations ________________________________________________________ | EXTREMELY HIGH | | | | | | | | | | | CONFIDENCE | VERY HIGH | | | | | | | | | | | LEVEL | HIGH | | | | | | | | | | | ------- | MODERATE | * | | | | | | | | * |***| 70% | LOW |***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***| | NOT VISIBLE |***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***| |----------------|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---| | AURORAL |Fri|Sat|Sun|Mon|Tue|Wed|Thu|Fri|Sat|Sun| | INTENSITY | Eve.Twilight/Midnight/Morn.Twilight | -------------------------------------------------------- Middle Latitude Locations ________________________________________________________ | EXTREMELY HIGH | | | | | | | | | | | CONFIDENCE | VERY HIGH | | | | | | | | | | | LEVEL | HIGH | | | | | | | | | | | ------- | MODERATE | | | | | | | | | | * | 75% | LOW | * | | | | | | | | * |***| | NOT VISIBLE |***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***| |----------------|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---| | AURORAL |Fri|Sat|Sun|Mon|Tue|Wed|Thu|Fri|Sat|Sun| | INTENSITY | Eve.Twilight/Midnight/Morn.Twilight | -------------------------------------------------------- Low Latitude Locations ________________________________________________________ | EXTREMELY HIGH | | | | | | | | | | | CONFIDENCE | VERY HIGH | | | | | | | | | | | LEVEL | HIGH | | | | | | | | | | | ------- | MODERATE | | | | | | | | | | | 90% | LOW | | | | | | | | | | | | NOT VISIBLE |***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***|***| |----------------|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---| | AURORAL |Fri|Sat|Sun|Mon|Tue|Wed|Thu|Fri|Sat|Sun| | INTENSITY | Eve.Twilight/Midnight/Morn.Twilight | -------------------------------------------------------- NOTE: Version 2.00b of our Professional Dynamic Auroral Oval Simulation Software Package is now available. This professional software is particularly valuable to radio communicators, aurora photographers, educators, and astronomers. For more information regarding this software, contact: "Oler@Rho.Uleth.CA", or "COler@Solar.Stanford.Edu". For more information regarding these charts, send a request for the document, "Understanding Solar Terrestrial Reports" to: "Oler@Rho.Uleth.Ca" or to: "COler@Solar.Stanford.Edu". This document, as well as others and related data/forecasts exist on the STD BBS at: (403) 756-3008. ** End of Report **