Xref: news.cs.tut.fi rec.radio.amateur.misc:45099 rec.radio.shortwave:26452 rec.radio.info:3639 Lines: 183 Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 13 January Followup-To: rec.radio.amateur.misc,rec.radio.shortwave Approved: rec-radio-info@ve6mgs.ampr.ab.ca Path: news.cs.tut.fi!news.funet.fi!sunic!pipex!howland.reston.ans.net!math.ohio-state.edu!cyber2.cyberstore.ca!nntp.cs.ubc.ca!alberta!adec23!ve6mgs!usenet Date: Fri, 14 Jan 1994 06:25:42 MST From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler) Newsgroups: rec.radio.amateur.misc,rec.radio.shortwave,rec.radio.info Message-ID: <9401141325.AA02523@rho.uleth.ca> /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\ DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY 13 JANUARY, 1994 /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\ (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data) SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 13 JANUARY, 1994 ----------------------------------------------------------- !!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 013, 01/13/94 10.7 FLUX=095.0 90-AVG=102 SSN=061 BKI=4432 5334 BAI=022 BGND-XRAY=B1.7 FLU1=9.2E+06 FLU10=1.5E+04 PKI=4433 5334 PAI=021 BOU-DEV=049,063,024,016,082,038,029,069 DEV-AVG=046 NT SWF=00:000 XRAY-MAX= B6.8 @ 0919UT XRAY-MIN= B1.4 @ 1807UT XRAY-AVG= B2.1 NEUTN-MAX= +000% @ 2145UT NEUTN-MIN= -003% @ 0905UT NEUTN-AVG= -0.5% PCA-MAX= +0.1DB @ 0705UT PCA-MIN= -0.1DB @ 1750UT PCA-AVG= +0.0DB BOUTF-MAX=55357NT @ 0328UT BOUTF-MIN=55314NT @ 1659UT BOUTF-AVG=55340NT GOES7-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT GOES7-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT G7-AVG=+061,+000,+000 GOES6-MAX=P:+138NT@ 1900UT GOES6-MIN=N:-059NT@ 0806UT G6-AVG=+087,+033,-033 FLUXFCST=STD:097,105,115;SESC:097,105,115 BAI/PAI-FCST=015,010,010/015,010,010 KFCST=3234 4322 2333 2222 27DAY-AP=016,013 27DAY-KP=3333 4333 2233 2343 WARNINGS=*SWF ALERTS=**245STRM:2117-2303UTC !!END-DATA!! NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 12 JAN 94 was 49.4. The Full Kp Indices for 12 JAN 94 are: 4o 4- 3o 4o 4- 4o 3- 3- SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY -------------------- Solar activity remained very low. Only minor B-class enhancements were observed from Region 7650 (N05W55) and 7648 (N07W68). Region 7648 exhibited some decay. The Mauna Loa observatory reported a coronal mass ejection from near N13E90 between 12/1930-2200Z. No significant x-ray or radio enhancements were observed during that time. The ejection likely occurred from old Region 7640 which should be nearing the east limb at those latitudes. Yohkoh images show a broad area of diffuse x-ray emission at the northeast limb with small brighter streamers. Solar activity forecast: solar activity should increase over the next few days as previously active longitudes rotate into view. The possibility of M-class activity exists from this area. A better assessment will be possible once old Region 7640 (and others nearby) become visible. The geomagnetic field was generally unsettled to active as the coronal hole related disturbance continued. As in previous days, some sites experienced periods of minor to major storm conditions. Geophysical activity forecast: the geomagnetic field should continue at unsettled to active levels for 14 Jan. Mostly unsettled levels are forecast for 15-16 Jan. Isolated active conditions are possible during that time as the disturbance slowly subsides. Event probabilities 14 jan-16 jan Class M 10/20/20 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF Green Geomagnetic activity probabilities 14 jan-16 jan A. Middle Latitudes Active 40/30/20 Minor Storm 15/10/05 Major-Severe Storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 50/40/25 Minor Storm 20/10/10 Major-Severe Storm 05/01/01 HF propagation conditions were near-normal over the low and central middle latitude regions today, although the middle latitudes did experience some signal degradations on night-sector paths due to the enhanced geomagnetic activity. High and polar latitude paths have observed below-normal propagation with poor to occasionally very poor signal quality, particularly on night-sector transauroral circuits. Conditions should begin improving over the next couple of days and should be near-normal by about 15 or 16 January. COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS ======================================================== REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 13/2400Z JANUARY ---------------------------------------------------------- NMBR LOCATION LO AREA Z LL NN MAG TYPE 7648 N07W69 025 0130 DAO 06 007 BETA 7650 N05W56 012 0190 EAO 11 018 BETA-DELTA 7651 S05W33 349 0040 CSO 04 006 BETA REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 14 JANUARY TO 16 JANUARY NMBR LAT LO 7640 N09 203 7641 N03 198 7642 7640 N09 203 7641 N03 198 7644 N11 190 LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 13 JANUARY, 1994 ------------------------------------------------------ A. ENERGETIC EVENTS: BEGIN MAX END RGN LOC XRAY OP 245MHZ 10CM SWEEP 1941 1941 1942 110 POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 13 JANUARY, 1994 ---------------------------------------------------------- BEGIN MAX END LOCATION TYPE SIZE DUR II IV NO EVENTS OBSERVED INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 13/2400Z --------------------------------------------------- ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS EAST SOUTH WEST NORTH CAR TYPE POL AREA OBSN 56 S45E18 S50W10 S22W67 S20W62 351 EXT NEG 025 10830A SUMMARY OF FLARE EVENTS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY ------------------------------------------------ Date Begin Max End Xray Op Region Locn 2695 MHz 8800 MHz 15.4 GHz ------ ---- ---- ---- ---- -- ------ ------ --------- --------- --------- 12 Jan:B1401 1410 1423 SF 7648 N06W42 REGION FLARE STATISTICS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY ------------------------------------------------ C M X S 1 2 3 4 Total (%) -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --- ------ Region 7648: 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 001 (100.0) Uncorrellated: 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 000 ( 0.0) Total Events: 001 optical and x-ray. EVENTS WITH SWEEPS AND/OR OPTICAL PHENOMENA FOR THE LAST UTC DAY ---------------------------------------------------------------- Date Begin Max End Xray Op Region Locn Sweeps/Optical Observations ------ ---- ---- ---- ---- -- ------ ------ --------------------------- NO EVENTS OBSERVED. NOTES: All times are in Universal Time (UT). Characters preceding begin, max, and end times are defined as: B = Before, U = Uncertain, A = After. All times associated with x-ray flares (ex. flares which produce associated x-ray bursts) refer to the begin, max, and end times of the x-rays. Flares which are not associated with x-ray signatures use the optical observations to determine the begin, max, and end times. Acronyms used to identify sweeps and optical phenomena include: II = Type II Sweep Frequency Event III = Type III Sweep IV = Type IV Sweep V = Type V Sweep Continuum = Continuum Radio Event Loop = Loop Prominence System, Spray = Limb Spray, Surge = Bright Limb Surge, EPL = Eruptive Prominence on the Limb. ** End of Daily Report **