Xref: news.cs.tut.fi rec.radio.amateur.misc:45098 rec.radio.shortwave:26451 rec.radio.info:3635 Lines: 190 Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 12 January Followup-To: rec.radio.amateur.misc,rec.radio.shortwave Approved: rec-radio-info@ve6mgs.ampr.ab.ca Path: news.cs.tut.fi!news.funet.fi!sunic!pipex!howland.reston.ans.net!math.ohio-state.edu!cyber2.cyberstore.ca!nntp.cs.ubc.ca!alberta!adec23!ve6mgs!usenet Date: Wed, 12 Jan 1994 21:58:43 MST From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler) Newsgroups: rec.radio.amateur.misc,rec.radio.shortwave,rec.radio.info Message-ID: <9401130458.AA27014@rho.uleth.ca> /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\ DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY 12 JANUARY, 1994 /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\ (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data) SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 12 JANUARY, 1994 ----------------------------------------------------------- !!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 012, 01/12/94 10.7 FLUX=097.8 90-AVG=102 SSN=066 BKI=3334 3433 BAI=018 BGND-XRAY=B1.9 FLU1=6.9E+06 FLU10=1.2E+04 PKI=4434 4433 PAI=020 BOU-DEV=035,025,032,044,037,050,020,022 DEV-AVG=033 NT SWF=00:000 XRAY-MAX= B4.6 @ 0007UT XRAY-MIN= B1.6 @ 2301UT XRAY-AVG= B2.6 NEUTN-MAX= +002% @ 0035UT NEUTN-MIN= -003% @ 1740UT NEUTN-AVG= -0.9% PCA-MAX= +0.1DB @ 0735UT PCA-MIN= -0.2DB @ 1535UT PCA-AVG= +0.0DB BOUTF-MAX=55354NT @ 0509UT BOUTF-MIN=55326NT @ 1750UT BOUTF-AVG=55339NT GOES7-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT GOES7-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT G7-AVG=+042,+000,+000 GOES6-MAX=P:+119NT@ 1929UT GOES6-MIN=N:-091NT@ 0435UT G6-AVG=+067,+039,-042 FLUXFCST=STD:095,097,105;SESC:095,097,105 BAI/PAI-FCST=015,015,010/015,015,010 KFCST=3344 3222 3234 4322 27DAY-AP=019,016 27DAY-KP=1334 4434 3333 4333 WARNINGS=*SWF;*AURMIDWCH ALERTS= !!END-DATA!! NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 11 JAN 94 was 63.0. The Full Kp Indices for 11 JAN 94 are: 2- 1+ 3o 3- 2+ 5- 4- 3o SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY -------------------- Solar activity was very low with only minor B-class enhancements observed. Several observatories reported that the trailer spot of Region 7648 (N07W54) merged with the leader spot of Region 7650 (N05W41). This technically results in the formation of a delta configuration but apparently there is little shear in the area as evidenced by the lack of burst activity. A small class C group emerged at S06W18 and was numbered as new Region 7651. Solar activity forecast: solar activity should be at a very low to low level. There is a slight chance of an M-class flare from the 7648/7650 complex but that possibility is diminished. Old Region 7640 is due to return to the east limb near N08 on 15 Jan. This region produced 7 M-class and 62 C-class flares last rotation and faded from view as a large region with magnetic complexity. This region could return as an M-class flare producer. The geomagnetic field was unsettled to active. Some high latitude sites experienced minor to major storm conditions during the period. Geophysical activity forecast: the geomagnetic field should be unsettled to slightly active for 13-14 Jan as the coronal hole related disturbance subsides. Isolated storm conditions are possible during that period. Mostly unsettled levels are forecast for 15 jan. Event probabilities 13 jan-15 jan Class M 15/15/20 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF Green Geomagnetic activity probabilities 13 jan-15 jan A. Middle Latitudes Active 50/40/25 Minor Storm 20/15/05 Major-Severe Storm 05/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 50/40/25 Minor Storm 20/15/05 Major-Severe Storm 10/05/01 HF propagation conditions were below-normal over the high, polar, and upper-middle latitude paths. Lower latitudes saw near-normal propagation. The geomagnetic and auroral activity which has produced fair to occasionally very poor propagation for transpolar and transauroral paths is expected to begin diminishing over the next 24 hours. However, periods of minor to major substorming over the high latitudes can still be expected on 12 January. Conditions should begin improving to near-normal by 13 and particularly 14 January. COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS ======================================================== REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 12/2400Z JANUARY ---------------------------------------------------------- NMBR LOCATION LO AREA Z LL NN MAG TYPE 7648 N07W55 024 0140 CAO 08 009 BETA 7650 N05W42 011 0190 EAI 12 023 BETA-DELTA 7651 S06W19 348 0010 CRO 03 004 BETA REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 13 JANUARY TO 15 JANUARY NMBR LAT LO 7640 N08 201 7641 N05 201 COMMENT: THE TRAILER SPOT OF REGION 7648 MERGED WITH THE LEADER SPOTS IN REGION 7650 CAUSING THE DELTA CONFIGURATION. LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 12 JANUARY, 1994 ------------------------------------------------------ BEGIN MAX END RGN LOC XRAY OP 245MHZ 10CM SWEEP 1824 1824 1824 290 POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 12 JANUARY, 1994 ---------------------------------------------------------- BEGIN MAX END LOCATION TYPE SIZE DUR II IV NO EVENTS OBSERVED INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 12/2400Z --------------------------------------------------- ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS EAST SOUTH WEST NORTH CAR TYPE POL AREA OBSN 56 S50E26 S50E01 S21W59 S20W56 351 EXT NEG 027 10830A SUMMARY OF FLARE EVENTS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY ------------------------------------------------ Date Begin Max End Xray Op Region Locn 2695 MHz 8800 MHz 15.4 GHz ------ ---- ---- ---- ---- -- ------ ------ --------- --------- --------- 11 Jan: 0316 0343 0347 B6.3 SF 7650 N04W18 0408 0419 0428 C1.8 SF 7648 N07W29 0454 0458 0501 B9.0 SF 7650 N04W19 0517 0522 0527 B6.5 0750 0817 0825 C1.7 0828 0828 0831 SF 7650 N04W22 0908 0912 0916 B6.5 1034 1048 1112 B6.7 1505 1510 1522 B4.5 2059 2114 2141 B4.9 REGION FLARE STATISTICS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY ------------------------------------------------ C M X S 1 2 3 4 Total (%) -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --- ------ Region 7648: 1 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 001 (10.0) Region 7650: 0 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 003 (30.0) Uncorrellated: 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 006 (60.0) Total Events: 010 optical and x-ray. EVENTS WITH SWEEPS AND/OR OPTICAL PHENOMENA FOR THE LAST UTC DAY ---------------------------------------------------------------- Date Begin Max End Xray Op Region Locn Sweeps/Optical Observations ------ ---- ---- ---- ---- -- ------ ------ --------------------------- 11 Jan: 0316 0343 0347 B6.3 SF 7650 N04W18 III 0454 0458 0501 B9.0 SF 7650 N04W19 III NOTES: All times are in Universal Time (UT). Characters preceding begin, max, and end times are defined as: B = Before, U = Uncertain, A = After. All times associated with x-ray flares (ex. flares which produce associated x-ray bursts) refer to the begin, max, and end times of the x-rays. Flares which are not associated with x-ray signatures use the optical observations to determine the begin, max, and end times. Acronyms used to identify sweeps and optical phenomena include: II = Type II Sweep Frequency Event III = Type III Sweep IV = Type IV Sweep V = Type V Sweep Continuum = Continuum Radio Event Loop = Loop Prominence System, Spray = Limb Spray, Surge = Bright Limb Surge, EPL = Eruptive Prominence on the Limb. ** End of Daily Report **