Xref: news.cs.tut.fi rec.radio.amateur.misc:44881 rec.radio.shortwave:26247 rec.radio.info:3602 Lines: 187 Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 09 January Followup-To: rec.radio.amateur.misc,rec.radio.shortwave Approved: rec-radio-info@ve6mgs.ampr.ab.ca Path: news.cs.tut.fi!news.funet.fi!news.tele.fi!uunet!tadpole.com!news.dell.com!swrinde!cs.utexas.edu!howland.reston.ans.net!usenet.ins.cwru.edu!lerc.nasa.gov!magnus.acs.ohio-state.edu!math.ohio-state.edu!cyber2.cyberstore.ca!nntp.cs.ubc.ca!alberta!nebulus!ve6mgs!usenet Date: Mon, 10 Jan 1994 12:32:05 MST From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler) Newsgroups: rec.radio.amateur.misc,rec.radio.shortwave,rec.radio.info Message-ID: <9401101932.AA15080@rho.uleth.ca> /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\ DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY 09 JANUARY, 1994 /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\ (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data) SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 09 JANUARY, 1994 ----------------------------------------------------------- NOTE: Stratospheric warming exists over Siberia, the Bering Strait, eastern Canada and southern Europe. Cold air has remained over Greenland and the European Arctic today. !!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 009, 01/09/94 10.7 FLUX=117.0 90-AVG=102 SSN=098 BKI=0010 0001 BAI=000 BGND-XRAY=B2.8 FLU1=6.2E+05 FLU10=1.0E+04 PKI=1121 2221 PAI=005 BOU-DEV=004,004,006,004,004,002,002,005 DEV-AVG=003 NT SWF=00:000 XRAY-MAX= C8.2 @ 2323UT XRAY-MIN= B2.4 @ 0614UT XRAY-AVG= B6.2 NEUTN-MAX= +003% @ 2310UT NEUTN-MIN= -001% @ 2335UT NEUTN-AVG= +0.6% PCA-MAX= +0.1DB @ 1835UT PCA-MIN= -0.8DB @ 0005UT PCA-AVG= -0.0DB BOUTF-MAX=55349NT @ 2048UT BOUTF-MIN=55336NT @ 1734UT BOUTF-AVG=55344NT GOES7-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT GOES7-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT G7-AVG=+078,+000,+000 GOES6-MAX=P:+131NT@ 1750UT GOES6-MIN=N:-053NT@ 0835UT G6-AVG=+100,+023,-024 FLUXFCST=STD:112,107,105;SESC:112,107,105 BAI/PAI-FCST=005,010,020/010,010,020 KFCST=1112 3111 0002 3000 27DAY-AP=004,004 27DAY-KP=1202 2111 1211 2211 WARNINGS=*MAJFLR;*SWF ALERTS=**SWEEP:II=2@2244-2357UTC(~600KM/S) !!END-DATA!! NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 08 JAN 94 was 60.0. The Full Kp Indices for 08 JAN 94 are: 1o 2o 3- 3- 3- 2+ 2- 1+ SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY -------------------- Solar activity was low. Only one C-class flare occurred: an optically uncorrelated C1 at 1254Z. Region 7648 (N07W11), the largest group on the disk, showed overall simplification and was quiet. Region 7650 (N05W01) displayed modest growth. Solar activity forecast: solar activity is expected to be low. STD: A long-duration class C8.2/SF flare was observed from Region 7646 (S08W82) at 09/2323Z. The flare was accompanied by a moderate Type II sweep that had an estimated shock velocity of approximately 600 km/second. The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Geophysical activity forecast: the geomagnetic field is expected to be generally quiet to unsettled for the next two days. An increase to active is expected on day three due to a favorably positioned coronal hole. Event probabilities 10 jan-12 jan Class M 15/10/10 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF Green Geomagnetic activity probabilities 10 jan-12 jan A. Middle Latitudes Active 10/15/60 Minor Storm 05/05/10 Major-Severe Storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 10/15/55 Minor Storm 05/05/15 Major-Severe Storm 01/01/05 HF propagation conditions were normal to above normal over most regions today, particularly over the middle, low, and equatorial regions. MUFs have remained enhanced about 10 to 20 percent above normal and the quiet levels of geomagnetic activity have contributed to very good propagation over the middle and lower latitude paths, with MUFs being enhanced in many cases by as much as approximately 25 to 30 percent. No significant changes are expected until 12 January when effects from a well-placed coronal hole should produce minor signal degradation over the high and polar latitude paths. COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS ======================================================== REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 09/2400Z JANUARY ---------------------------------------------------------- NMBR LOCATION LO AREA Z LL NN MAG TYPE 7645 N13W80 088 0050 CAO 09 003 BETA 7646 S08W82 090 0190 DAO 08 003 BETA 7648 N07W10 018 0300 DAO 10 023 BETA 7649 S20W72 080 0000 AXX 00 001 ALPHA 7650 N05W00 008 0100 DAO 09 018 BETA 7647 S15W86 094 PLAGE REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 10 JANUARY TO 12 JANUARY NMBR LAT LO NONE LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 09 JANUARY, 1994 ------------------------------------------------------ BEGIN MAX END RGN LOC XRAY OP 245MHZ 10CM SWEEP 0618 0701 1054 160 2244 2323 2357 7646 S06W76 C8.2 SF 44 II POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 09 JANUARY, 1994 ---------------------------------------------------------- BEGIN MAX END LOCATION TYPE SIZE DUR II IV 09/ 2244 2323 2357 S06W76 LDE C8.2 73 2 INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 09/2400Z --------------------------------------------------- ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS EAST SOUTH WEST NORTH CAR TYPE POL AREA OBSN 55 S80E87 S85W90 S85W90 S12W13 011 EXT NEG 183 10830A SUMMARY OF FLARE EVENTS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY ------------------------------------------------ Date Begin Max End Xray Op Region Locn 2695 MHz 8800 MHz 15.4 GHz ------ ---- ---- ---- ---- -- ------ ------ --------- --------- --------- 08 Jan: 0015 0020 0026 B8.1 SF 7646 S05W55 0155 0158 0200 B8.4 SF 7646 S11W56 0238 0245 0258 C1.0 0302 0317 0330 C1.6 SF 7646 S10W53 0636 0642 0649 B6.5 0757 0802 0806 B9.4 SF 7647 S15W67 0920 1031 1059 C2.4 1624 1639 1648 B9.8 SF 7647 S13W69 2236 2246 2254 B7.9 REGION FLARE STATISTICS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY ------------------------------------------------ C M X S 1 2 3 4 Total (%) -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --- ------ Region 7646: 1 0 0 3 0 0 0 0 003 (33.3) Region 7647: 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 002 (22.2) Uncorrellated: 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 004 (44.4) Total Events: 009 optical and x-ray. EVENTS WITH SWEEPS AND/OR OPTICAL PHENOMENA FOR THE LAST UTC DAY ---------------------------------------------------------------- Date Begin Max End Xray Op Region Locn Sweeps/Optical Observations ------ ---- ---- ---- ---- -- ------ ------ --------------------------- 08 Jan: 2236 2246 2254 B7.9 III NOTES: All times are in Universal Time (UT). Characters preceding begin, max, and end times are defined as: B = Before, U = Uncertain, A = After. All times associated with x-ray flares (ex. flares which produce associated x-ray bursts) refer to the begin, max, and end times of the x-rays. Flares which are not associated with x-ray signatures use the optical observations to determine the begin, max, and end times. Acronyms used to identify sweeps and optical phenomena include: II = Type II Sweep Frequency Event III = Type III Sweep IV = Type IV Sweep V = Type V Sweep Continuum = Continuum Radio Event Loop = Loop Prominence System, Spray = Limb Spray, Surge = Bright Limb Surge, EPL = Eruptive Prominence on the Limb. ** End of Daily Report **