Xref: news.cs.tut.fi rec.radio.amateur.misc:44193 rec.radio.shortwave:25569 rec.radio.info:3392 Lines: 253 Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 25 December Followup-To: rec.radio.amateur.misc,rec.radio.shortwave Approved: rec-radio-info@ve6mgs.ampr.ab.ca Path: news.cs.tut.fi!butler.cc.tut.fi!news.funet.fi!sunic!pipex!uunet!destroyer!nntp.cs.ubc.ca!alberta!adec23!ve6mgs!usenet Date: Sat, 25 Dec 1993 23:01:30 MST From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler) Newsgroups: rec.radio.amateur.misc,rec.radio.shortwave,rec.radio.info Message-ID: <9312260601.AA07382@rho.uleth.ca> /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\ DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY 25 DECEMBER, 1993 /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\ (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data) SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 25 DECEMBER, 1993 ------------------------------------------------------------ !!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 359, 12/25/93 10.7 FLUX=119.1 90-AVG=099 SSN=120 BKI=1322 2111 BAI=006 BGND-XRAY=B5.9 FLU1=9.5E+05 FLU10=1.1E+04 PKI=1313 2122 PAI=007 BOU-DEV=006,027,010,012,015,007,009,006 DEV-AVG=011 NT SWF=01:004 XRAY-MAX= M1.5 @ 1756UT XRAY-MIN= B3.9 @ 2359UT XRAY-AVG= C1.3 NEUTN-MAX= +002% @ 0740UT NEUTN-MIN= -002% @ 0455UT NEUTN-AVG= +0.2% PCA-MAX= +0.1DB @ 2215UT PCA-MIN= -0.3DB @ 0850UT PCA-AVG= +0.0DB BOUTF-MAX=55358NT @ 0006UT BOUTF-MIN=55335NT @ 2047UT BOUTF-AVG=55349NT GOES7-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT GOES7-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT G7-AVG=+066,+000,+000 GOES6-MAX=P:+119NT@ 1816UT GOES6-MIN=N:-055NT@ 0921UT G6-AVG=+090,+022,-028 FLUXFCST=STD:124,130,135;SESC:124,130,135 BAI/PAI-FCST=005,010,005/007,010,015 KFCST=1123 3211 1223 3322 27DAY-AP=004,008 27DAY-KP=1101 2211 4222 2222 WARNINGS=*SWF;*MAJFLR ALERTS=**MINFLR:M1.5/2N@1756,N07E06(7640) !!END-DATA!! NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 24 DEC 93 was 52.3. The Full Kp Indices for 24 DEC 93 are: 2o 1o 2+ 3- 3- 3- 2- 2- SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY -------------------- Solar activity was moderate the past 24 hours. Region 7640 (N09E08) produced an M1/SN flare at 1756Z as well as numerous C-class flares during this period. The region continues to grow in white light while exhibiting increasing inversion line complexity. All other regions are stable. Solar activity forecast: solar activity is expected to be moderate. With Rgn 7640 now showing a possible delta config- uration in the main leader group, M-class flaring potential remains high. STD: An additional full-disk Yohkoh x-ray image has been appended to this report, showing the large size and brightness of the x-ray loop structures composing Region 7640. This recent image casts doubt on the existence of an eastern hemisphere coronal hole. More will be known over the next several days as the suspected area rotates into a better position for analysis. Region 7640 is capable of spawning a major flare and bears watching closely. The geomagnetic field has been at mostly quiet levels in the mid latitudes with some active periods experienced at higher latitudes. Geophysical activity forecast: the geomagnetic field is expected to be at mostly quiet levels for the next 24 hrs. Event probabilities 26 dec-28 dec Class M 65/70/70 Class X 10/10/10 Proton 05/05/05 PCAF Green Geomagnetic activity probabilities 26 dec-28 dec A. Middle Latitudes Active 10/15/15 Minor Storm 05/05/10 Major-Severe Storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 10/15/25 Minor Storm 05/10/15 Major-Severe Storm 01/01/05 HF propagation conditions were near-normal over the low and middle latitude paths, and slightly below normal to near-normal for night-sector high and polar latitude paths. Conditions over the high latitudes are beginning to improve due to elevated solar flux levels from Region 7640. The potential for stronger or more frequent SWF activity is increasing as this solar region shows greater overall complexity. COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS ======================================================== REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 25/2400Z DECEMBER ----------------------------------------------------------- NMBR LOCATION LO AREA Z LL NN MAG TYPE 7640 N09E08 198 0650 FKI 22 085 BETA-GAMMA 7641 N04E06 200 0080 HSX 03 004 ALPHA 7642 N11W34 240 0000 AXX 00 001 ALPHA 7643 S17E54 152 0000 AXX 00 001 ALPHA 7635 N02W70 276 PLAGE REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 26 DECEMBER TO 28 DECEMBER NMBR LAT LO 7633 S18 090 7630 S10 087 7629 S20 083 LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 25 DECEMBER, 1993 ------------------------------------------------------- A. ENERGETIC EVENTS: BEGIN MAX END RGN LOC XRAY OP 245MHZ 10CM SWEEP 1229 1233 1236 C2.3 130 1741 1756 1800 7640 N07E06 M1.5 SN 1822 1823 1823 130 2021 2025 2030 C1.0 170 POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 25 DECEMBER, 1993 ----------------------------------------------------------- BEGIN MAX END LOCATION TYPE SIZE DUR II IV 24/A2327 25/B1457 N11W40 DSF INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 25/2400Z --------------------------------------------------- ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS EAST SOUTH WEST NORTH CAR TYPE POL AREA OBSN NO DATA AVAILABLE FOR ANALYSIS SUMMARY OF FLARE EVENTS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY ------------------------------------------------ Date Begin Max End Xray Op Region Locn 2695 MHz 8800 MHz 15.4 GHz ------ ---- ---- ---- ---- -- ------ ------ --------- --------- --------- 24 Dec: 0324 0327 0329 B6.0 0333 0339 0345 B7.4 SF 7640 N07E27 0854 0859 0911 C2.7 SN 7640 N07E22 0923 0926 0928 C1.7 0946 0959 1001 C3.8 SN 7640 N07E20 B1151 1157 1215 SB 7640 N07E24 1208 1216 1221 C5.1 SF 7640 N08E22 1318 1319 A1328 SF 7635 N04W49 1322 1324 A1329 SF 7640 N08E26 1333 1341 1348 C2.5 SF 7640 N07E20 1411 1415 1425 C1.4 1631 1635 1640 C1.0 1725 1731 1735 C3.9 SN 7640 N06E17 1905 1910 1913 B8.9 2102 2109 2112 C1.8 SF 7640 N07E16 2115 2120 2122 C2.1 SF 7640 N06E15 2246 2249 2252 B6.7 2259 2303 2312 B7.1 2353 2357 0000 B9.1 SF 7640 N07E15 REGION FLARE STATISTICS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY ------------------------------------------------ C M X S 1 2 3 4 Total (%) -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --- ------ Region 7635: 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 001 ( 4.8) Region 7640: 7 2 0 11 2 0 0 0 013 (61.9) Uncorrellated: 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 007 (33.3) Total Events: 021 optical and x-ray. EVENTS WITH SWEEPS AND/OR OPTICAL PHENOMENA FOR THE LAST UTC DAY ---------------------------------------------------------------- Date Begin Max End Xray Op Region Locn Sweeps/Optical Observations ------ ---- ---- ---- ---- -- ------ ------ --------------------------- 24 Dec: 0946 0959 1001 C3.8 SN 7640 N07E20 Continuum B1151 1157 1215 SB 7640 N07E24 Continuum 1208 1216 1221 C5.1 SF 7640 N08E22 III NOTES: All times are in Universal Time (UT). Characters preceding begin, max, and end times are defined as: B = Before, U = Uncertain, A = After. All times associated with x-ray flares (ex. flares which produce associated x-ray bursts) refer to the begin, max, and end times of the x-rays. Flares which are not associated with x-ray signatures use the optical observations to determine the begin, max, and end times. Acronyms used to identify sweeps and optical phenomena include: II = Type II Sweep Frequency Event III = Type III Sweep IV = Type IV Sweep V = Type V Sweep Continuum = Continuum Radio Event Loop = Loop Prominence System, Spray = Limb Spray, Surge = Bright Limb Surge, EPL = Eruptive Prominence on the Limb. SPECIAL INSERT: CURRENT X-RAY EMISSIONS FROM THE JAPANESE YOHKOH SPACECRAFT =========================================================================== 25 December 1993, 04:40 UTC North .............,,,,::,::::::::::,,,,,,,,.,........ ............,,.,,:::::::::::::::::::::::::::::,,,,,...... ........,,,,,,,,.,,,,,::,::,,,::::,,,,,,,,::::::::::::,,,,.... . ....,,,,,::,..,,,,,,,,,::,::::,::::,,:::::,,::::::::::::::,,,... ....,,,,::::,,,...,,,,,,,,:;:::,:::::::::::::::::::::::::::;:::,,,........ .....,,,::::,,,,,,,,,,,:::::;;::::::::::;:::::::::::::::::::::;;::::,,,..... ...,,,:::::,,:::,::,,,:::::;;;;;:::;;;;;;;;::::::::::::::::::::::;;;;::,,..,. ..,,,::;;::,,,:::::::;;;;;------;;;;;;;;---;;;;;;;;;;;::::::::::::;--;::,,,,, ..,,:::;;:::,,,::::::;-+---+++++++--+-;;---++--;;;;;;;;;::::::::::::;-;;:::,,, ..,,:::;;;;::::,,::::;++||!!!11!!||++|||+;----++++-----;;;:::::::::::::;;;::::: .,,::;;;;;::::::,:::;;|1!134434432!|!!||!|-;;----++------;;;;;::::::::::;;;:::: .,:::;;;;;;;;:::::::;;+12*@###@@*32111!!!|+;;-------||----;;;;;;:;;;;;;:;;;;::: ,,::;--;----;::::::;;-||!33*@#@@@@2!!!!!!|+;;;--------;;;;;::;;;;;;-+--;;-;:::, ,::;--+;----;;::::;;-|111334444#31!|||||++-;;;;;;;;;;::::::;;;;;--+!31+;;;;:::, ,:;;-++------;:::::;;-+||!11!!121!|+++||+-;;;;:::::::::::::;;;;::;-!!|+;:;;:::, :;;;----+||+-;;:::::;;;-+||||!1!++++----;;:::::,,,,:::,::::::::,:;;-+|-;,;:::,, ,:;;--+++|||+-;;-::;;;;;-----++--;;;;;;;;::::::,:::::,,,,,,,,,,,,:;;::,,,;::,,, ::;;--||!!|+++11;;;+---||+---;;;;;::::::::::::::::,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,:;::,,, :;;---+!11!+++|!-;--;;-+|+;;;;;;;::::::::::::::::,,,,,,.....,,,,.,,,,,:;;:,,,.. :;;--+|!!!|+--;;;;;;::;;;::;;;;;:::::,,,,,,::::::,:,,,,,,..,....,....,,::,,.... :;;--++|||--;;;:::::::::::;;;;::::::,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,::,,..... ::;;--++|||-;:::;;::::::::::::::::,,,,,,,,,,.,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,.,,,,.,::,,...... :::;;---++||-;;;:::::::::::::::,,,,,,,,,,,,,......,,,,,,,,,,,.,,..,:::,,... ... ,::::;;----++-;:::::::::::::,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,.,,,,,,.........,,,,:::,,... ,,,:::::;;-----;::::,:::::,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,....,.....,.,,.,,,,:,,,,... .,,,,,:::::;;;;;;;::::::::,:,:,,,,,,:,,,,,,,,,.........,,..,,,,,,,.... ...,,,,,,,:::::;;;;--;;;::::,,,,,,,,,.......... . ............ .....,.,,,,,:::;;;;;----;;::,,... ... .........,,,,:::;;;;;;;;;::::,,. . ..........,,,,,:::,,,,,,,,... . ................. . South KEY: East and west limbs are to the left and right respectively. Emission strength, from minimum to maximum are coded in the following way: [space] . , : ; - + | ! 1 2 3 4 * # @ Units used are arbitrary, for illustrative purposes. Get "showasc.zip" from "pub/solar/Software" at the anonymous FTP site: ftp.uleth.ca (IP # 142.66.3.29) to view these images on VGA screens. ** End of Daily Report **