Xref: news.cs.tut.fi rec.radio.amateur.misc:44066 rec.radio.shortwave:25466 rec.radio.info:3345 Lines: 231 Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 21 December Followup-To: rec.radio.amateur.misc,rec.radio.shortwave Approved: rec-radio-info@ve6mgs.ampr.ab.ca Path: news.cs.tut.fi!news.funet.fi!sunic!EU.net!howland.reston.ans.net!math.ohio-state.edu!cyber2.cyberstore.ca!nntp.cs.ubc.ca!cs.ubc.ca!alberta!nebulus!ve6mgs!usenet Date: Tue, 21 Dec 1993 21:16:42 MST From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler) Newsgroups: rec.radio.amateur.misc,rec.radio.shortwave,rec.radio.info Message-ID: <9312220416.AA17721@rho.uleth.ca> /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\ DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY 21 DECEMBER, 1993 /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\ (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data) SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 21 DECEMBER, 1993 ------------------------------------------------------------ !!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 355, 12/21/93 10.7 FLUX=092.9 90-AVG=098 SSN=045 BKI=3233 3323 BAI=013 BGND-XRAY=B1.3 FLU1=2.7E+06 FLU10=1.2E+04 PKI=3233 3323 PAI=012 BOU-DEV=031,011,029,025,024,028,017,027 DEV-AVG=024 NT SWF=00:000 XRAY-MAX= C1.2 @ 0058UT XRAY-MIN= B1.1 @ 1558UT XRAY-AVG= B2.9 NEUTN-MAX= +002% @ 1330UT NEUTN-MIN= -002% @ 2355UT NEUTN-AVG= -0.3% PCA-MAX= +0.1DB @ 0705UT PCA-MIN= -0.4DB @ 1025UT PCA-AVG= -0.0DB BOUTF-MAX=55358NT @ 2354UT BOUTF-MIN=55333NT @ 1739UT BOUTF-AVG=55348NT GOES7-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT GOES7-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT G7-AVG=+068,+000,+000 GOES6-MAX=P:+135NT@ 1654UT GOES6-MIN=N:-071NT@ 0717UT G6-AVG=+089,+021,-029 FLUXFCST=STD:095,097,098;SESC:095,097,098 BAI/PAI-FCST=007,007,005/010,010,005 KFCST=1112 3111 1112 3111 27DAY-AP=005,006 27DAY-KP=2211 2121 2110 2223 WARNINGS=*SWF ALERTS= !!END-DATA!! NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 20 DEC 93 was 41.0. The Full Kp Indices for 20 DEC 93 are: 3o 2o 1+ 3- 2o 2o 3- 3- SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY -------------------- Solar activity was low. Only an occasional C-class flare has been noted during the period. Region 7640 (N10E57) shows the most potential for flares. Solar activity forecast: solar activity should continue to be at a low level. Region 7640 is still capable of producing an isolated M-class flare. STD: A full-disk x-ray image from the Yohkoh satellite has been appended to this report, showing the increased emissions associated with Region 7640. The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Active to minor storm levels were observed at high latitudes. Geophysical activity forecast: the geomagnetic field is expected to be mostly quiet throughout the forecast period. Event probabilities 22 dec-24 dec Class M 20/20/20 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF Green Geomagnetic activity probabilities 22 dec-24 dec A. Middle Latitudes Active 15/15/10 Minor Storm 05/05/05 Major-Severe Storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 25/25/15 Minor Storm 10/10/05 Major-Severe Storm 01/01/01 HF propagation conditions have not changed over the last 24 hours. Low and middle latitudes continue to observe near-normal propagation, while high and polar latitudes continue to observe near-normal propagation except during the local night and morning sectors where occasional minor signal degradation is producing slightly below-normal conditions. No changes are expected over the next several days. High and polar latitude paths should see gradual improvements over the next 72 hours as levels of geomagnetic activity drop to generally quiet levels. COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS ======================================================== REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 21/2400Z DECEMBER ----------------------------------------------------------- NMBR LOCATION LO AREA Z LL NN MAG TYPE 7635 N01W14 273 0060 CSO 04 004 BETA 7640 N09E58 201 0250 FSO 16 010 BETA 7641 N04E60 199 0100 HSX 02 001 ALPHA 7632 N05W85 344 PLAGE 7637 N09W72 331 PLAGE REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 22 DECEMBER TO 24 DECEMBER NMBR LAT LO 7623 S13 158 LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 21 DECEMBER, 1993 ------------------------------------------------------- BEGIN MAX END RGN LOC XRAY OP 245MHZ 10CM SWEEP NONE POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 21 DECEMBER, 1993 ----------------------------------------------------------- BEGIN MAX END LOCATION TYPE SIZE DUR II IV NO EVENTS OBSERVED INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 21/2400Z --------------------------------------------------- ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS EAST SOUTH WEST NORTH CAR TYPE POL AREA OBSN NO DATA AVAILABLE FOR ANALYSIS SUMMARY OF FLARE EVENTS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY ------------------------------------------------ Date Begin Max End Xray Op Region Locn 2695 MHz 8800 MHz 15.4 GHz ------ ---- ---- ---- ---- -- ------ ------ --------- --------- --------- 20 Dec: 0152 0200 0209 C1.3 0235 0245 0259 B5.2 0613 0625 0638 B3.6 0713 0731 0751 C1.5 0838 0846 0854 C1.3 1425 1433 1437 B6.0 SF 7640 N08E80 1531 1536 1541 B6.8 SF 7640 N07E76 1819 1820 1829 SF 7640 N07E75 1847 1903 1910 B6.4 SF 7640 N08E74 1916 1917 1927 SF 7640 N07E72 2222 2225 2236 B4.7 REGION FLARE STATISTICS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY ------------------------------------------------ C M X S 1 2 3 4 Total (%) -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --- ------ Region 7640: 0 0 0 5 0 0 0 0 005 (45.5) Uncorrellated: 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 006 (54.5) Total Events: 011 optical and x-ray. EVENTS WITH SWEEPS AND/OR OPTICAL PHENOMENA FOR THE LAST UTC DAY ---------------------------------------------------------------- Date Begin Max End Xray Op Region Locn Sweeps/Optical Observations ------ ---- ---- ---- ---- -- ------ ------ --------------------------- 20 Dec: 0152 0200 0209 C1.3 III 1847 1903 1910 B6.4 SF 7640 N08E74 III,V NOTES: All times are in Universal Time (UT). Characters preceding begin, max, and end times are defined as: B = Before, U = Uncertain, A = After. All times associated with x-ray flares (ex. flares which produce associated x-ray bursts) refer to the begin, max, and end times of the x-rays. Flares which are not associated with x-ray signatures use the optical observations to determine the begin, max, and end times. Acronyms used to identify sweeps and optical phenomena include: II = Type II Sweep Frequency Event III = Type III Sweep IV = Type IV Sweep V = Type V Sweep Continuum = Continuum Radio Event Loop = Loop Prominence System, Spray = Limb Spray, Surge = Bright Limb Surge, EPL = Eruptive Prominence on the Limb. SPECIAL INSERT: CURRENT X-RAY EMISSIONS FROM THE JAPANESE YOHKOH SPACECRAFT =========================================================================== 21 December 1993, 06:20 UTC North . ....,,,,,,,,:,,,:,,,,... ......... .... .....,,,,,::::::::::,,:::,,,... ...,,,,,:,,,,,,... ......,......,,,,,::::::::,,,,,,,.,.,,,,,,... ...,..,,::::::,,,..... .......,.....,,,,:::::::,:,,,,,,,,....,,...... .......,,:::::,,,.... ..,,,,,:,,,,,::,,,,,:::::::,,,,,,,,...,.......... .........,,::;::,,,,... .,,,,:::::;;;::::,::::::::::::,,.,,.,,,.,,........ . ....,,,,,::;;::,,,,..... .,,,::;;-----;;;;:::::::::::::,:,,,,.....,,,,,..............,,,::;;;;::,,,,.... ,,::;--+|||+------;:::::::::::::,:,........,,,,,,...........,,,::-+--;;:::,,,,. ,;-+||!121|+---++++-;;:::::::::,:;::,,..,,,,.,,,,..........,,,,,,;-----;;;:::,, ;+|!||!3*2!||++-++++--;;;;::::,:::-:,,,,,,,,,,,............,,,,,,:;:;;-++--;;:: ;-||!12*#*1!||+-++-++------;;,,:;::::,:::::::,,,,,,.........:,,,,:;;::;|||+--;: :;+!223#@@3!||+++----------;:,.,;;:;::::;--;;::,,,,,,........,,,,,,,,:;+|!!+-;; ;-|!124##4!!|+------;;;;;;:::::;-+--;;;;+!11|-:,,.............,,,,,::-1+!!!|+-; ;-+!124*2!|+----;;;;;::::::::;;;;;;;;;-|132!+-:,,.. ......,,,,,,,:-++!!!|+-; ;-+|!221|++-;;;;;;::::::,,,:::::,,,:::;|!|--||+-;,.. . .......,,,,,,,;-|++--;; ;--++|||+-;;;;::::::::::,,,,,,,,,,,,,,:::::;--;:,...... ..,....,,,:,,,::;-;;::, ;;--+|!+;;;::::::::::,,,,,....,,,,,,,,,.,:,,,,...... .,,,,,,:,;:,,:::;-;:,,, :;--+|!1-;;:::::::::,,,,. .. ..,,,,......,,........, .,,:,,,,,...,,:::;;;:,,. ;;---+13|;:::::::,,:,,,......,,,,........................,,........,::,:;;:,,.. ;;;;-+|!|;:::::,,,,,,,..,.,,.,,............. .. ..................,;,,;;::,,.. :;;;---++-::,,,,,,,,...,,,,,......,,........ .... .....,.,,:;::,.... ::;;;---++-:,,,,,,,,,,,,,,.............. ..............,.,.,,;;::,.... :::;;;;-----:,.,,,,,,,...,.........,... ................,,::::,.. ,:::::;;;;;;;;,,,,,,,,............. . .. ............,,:::,,... ,,,,,:,:::::;;;;:,,,,,,............ .. . . . .....,... ..,.,,,,.... ..,,,,,,,:::::;;;;::,,,.........,.... . ,. ... .....,,,.. ....,,.,,,,::::;;;;-;::,.. .,,,,.. ........,,,,::::;;;;;;;:,.. .. .. .........,,,,,:::::::;;::::,,.. . . .......,,,,,,,,:,,,,,,.....,,,,,,,,.... ............... ........ South KEY: East and west limbs are to the left and right respectively. Emission strength, from minimum to maximum are coded in the following way: [space] . , : ; - + | ! 1 2 3 4 * # @ Units used are arbitrary, for illustrative purposes. Get "showasc.zip" from "pub/solar/Software" at the anonymous FTP site: ftp.uleth.ca (IP # 142.66.3.29) to view these images on VGA screens. ** End of Daily Report **