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Date: Fri, 3 Dec 1993 10:07:27 -0700
Newsgroups: rec.radio.amateur.misc,rec.radio.info
Followup-To: rec.radio.amateur.misc
Message-ID: <$arlp048.1993@ampr.org>
From: lhurder@arrl.org (Luck Hurder KY1T)
Subject: ARLP048 Propogation de KT7H
Lines: 52
Approved: rec-radio-info@ve6mgs.ampr.ab.ca

SB PROP @ ARL $ARLP048
ARLP048 Propagation de KT7H

ZCZC AP10
QST de W1AW  
Propagation Forecast Bulletin 48  ARLP048
From Tad Cook, KT7H
Seattle, WA  December 3, 1993
To all radio amateurs 

SB PROP ARL ARLP048
ARLP048 Propagation de KT7H

Conditions have been mostly quiet over the recent period, with low A
and K indices, and the solar flux repeatedly flirting with the 100
level.  Geomagnetic storm warnings were being issued mid week before
this bulletin was written, but conditions should quiet down by the
weekend.
 
Solar flux should dip down to around 90 next week, and then go up
over 100 by mid month.  There are no more disturbed periods forecast
for the near term, with the possible exception of some slightly
active geomagnetic indices around December 15.
 
The author is again receiving mail requests for explanations of some
of the terms used in this bulletin.  Don't forget when writing to
include a self addressed stamped envelope for a reply.  The address
is 5519 12 Ave NE, Seattle, WA 98105.  The packet radio address is
KT7H at N7DUO.WA.USA.
 
A good source for basic information is the Propagation section in
any recent copy of the ARRL Handbook.  What most users of HF radio
hope for is a higher solar flux, indicating more ionizing radiation
from the Sun, and higher usable frequencies.  When solar flares or
coronal holes on the Sun produce protons, these recombine with
electrons in the ionosphere and lower the reflectiveness, as well as
cause absorption on polar paths by disturbing the Earth's magnetic
field.  Higher A and K indices, as noted on WWV broadcasts at 18
minutes after each hour, are indicators of these disturbed
conditions.
 
When the K index, which is updated every three hours, is lower than
three, conditions are usually quite good.  When the daily A index is
lower than ten, this indicates good conditions as well, but for the
previous day.  K indices of greater than three or an A index higher
than twenty is a general indicator of poorer conditions.
 
Sunspot Numbers from November 24 through December 1 were 78, 61, 52,
55, 75, 92, 101 and 100, with a mean of 77.8.  10.7 cm flux was 100,
97.2, 93.2, 90, 93, 93.8, 103.7 and 108.6, with a mean of 97.4
NNNN
/EX