Lines: 57
Subject: (PKT): WARNING: POTENTIAL MAJOR GEOMAGNETIC STORM WARNING
Followup-To: rec.radio.amateur.misc,rec.radio.shortwave
Approved: rec-radio-info@ve6mgs.ampr.ab.ca
Path: news.cs.tut.fi!news.funet.fi!sunic!EU.net!uunet!tadpole.com!news.dell.com!swrinde!elroy.jpl.nasa.gov!decwrl!tribune.usask.ca!kakwa.ucs.ualberta.ca!alberta!ugc!nebulus!ve6mgs!usenet
Date: Mon, 29 Nov 1993 01:06:19 MST
From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
Newsgroups: rec.radio.info
Message-ID: <$pgsw3333a.1993@ampr.org>

bid: $PGSW3333A
GEOMAG. STORM WARNING 29NOV93
PACKET RADIO REPORT
SOLAR TERRESTRIAL DISPATCH
(PACKET: VE6MGS@VE6MC.#EDM.AB.CAN.NOAM)
(INTERNET: COLER@SOLAR.STANFORD.EDU)


POTENTIAL MAJOR GEOMAGNETIC STORM WARNING
-----------------------------------------

    HIGH RISK PERIOD:  01 - 02 December (UT days)
MODERATE RISK PERIOD:  29 November - 03 December

POTENTIAL LOW-MIDDLE LATITUDE STORM INTENSITY:  MAJOR
      POTENTIAL HIGH LATITUDE STORM INTENSITY:  MAJOR - SEVERE

      POTENTIAL DURATION OF GEOMAGNETIC STORM:  APPROX. 48 HOURS

POTENTIAL PEAK LOW-MIDDLE LATITUDE K-INDEX VALUES:  7
      POTENTIAL PEAK HIGH LATITUDE K-INDEX VALUES:  8

  EXPECTED DOMINATING LOW-MIDDLE LATITUDE K-INDEX:  5 - 6
        EXPECTED DOMINATING HIGH LATITUDE K-INDEX:  6

   POTENTIAL FOR LOW LATITUDE HF DEGRADATION:  MODERATE
        POTENTIAL SEVERITY OF HF DEGRADATION:  MINOR
          EXPECTED HF PROPAGATION CONDITIONS:  GOOD - FAIR

POTENTIAL FOR MIDDLE LATITUDE HF DEGRADATION:  HIGH
        POTENTIAL SEVERITY OF HF DEGRADATION:  MAJOR
          EXPECTED HF PROPAGATION CONDITIONS:  FAIR - OCCASIONALLY VERY POOR

  POTENTIAL FOR HIGH LATITUDE HF DEGRADATION:  HIGH
        POTENTIAL SEVERITY OF HF DEGRADATION:  MAJOR
          EXPECTED HF PROPAGATION CONDITIONS:  VERY POOR TO USELESS

POTENTIAL RISK FOR GEOSYNCHRONOUS MAGNETOPAUSE CROSSINGS:  35% PROBABLE

SUSPECTED SOURCE OF OBSERVED/EXPECTED ACTIVITY:
        Large, recurrent, and proven geoeffective coronal hole.


---------------------------------       ---------------------------------
EST. POTENTIAL GEOMAGNETIC IMPACT       EST. POTENTIAL IONOSPHERIC IMPACT
---------------------------------       ---------------------------------
       SEVERE STORM : 30 %                 LOW LATITUDES : MINOR
        MAJOR STORM : 40 %              MIDDLE LATITUDES : MAJOR
        MINOR STORM : 25 %                HIGH LATITUDES : MAJOR
     ACTIVE OR LESS : 05 %               POLAR LATITUDES : MAJOR
---------------------------------       ---------------------------------
 PROBABLE SI ASSOCIATION : 20 %          ESTIMATED GLOBAL IMPACT: MAJOR

ESTIMATED FORECAST PEAK PLANETARY 24-HOUR A-INDEX DURING STORM: 70


**  END OF PACKET WARNING (1/1)  **