Lines: 230 Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 18 October Followup-To: rec.radio.amateur.misc,rec.radio.shortwave Approved: rec-radio-info@ve6mgs.ampr.ab.ca Path: news.cs.tut.fi!news.funet.fi!sunic!pipex!uunet!elroy.jpl.nasa.gov!decwrl!tribune.usask.ca!kakwa.ucs.ualberta.ca!alberta!adec23!ve6mgs!usenet Date: Tue, 19 Oct 1993 08:29:40 MDT From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler) Newsgroups: rec.radio.info Message-ID: <9310191429.AA19386@rho.uleth.ca> /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\ DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY 18 OCTOBER, 1993 /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\ (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data) SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 18 OCTOBER, 1993 ----------------------------------------------------------- !!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 291, 10/18/93 10.7 FLUX=087.4 90-AVG=095 SSN=051 BKI=1322 2211 BAI=006 BGND-XRAY=A5.7 FLU1=5.1E+05 FLU10=1.2E+04 PKI=2322 2311 PAI=007 BOU-DEV=006,029,012,010,010,010,006,008 DEV-AVG=011 NT SWF=00:000 XRAY-MAX= B4.8 @ 0228UT XRAY-MIN= A5.1 @ 1737UT XRAY-AVG= A8.2 NEUTN-MAX= +003% @ 1200UT NEUTN-MIN= -001% @ 2215UT NEUTN-AVG= +0.7% PCA-MAX= +0.1DB @ 1435UT PCA-MIN= -0.4DB @ 1530UT PCA-AVG= -0.0DB BOUTF-MAX=55363NT @ 1408UT BOUTF-MIN=55345NT @ 1821UT BOUTF-AVG=55357NT GOES7-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT GOES7-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT G7-AVG=+058,+000,+000 GOES6-MAX=P:+111NT@ 1558UT GOES6-MIN=N:-051NT@ 1511UT G6-AVG=+077,+012,-028 FLUXFCST=STD:085,090,090;SESC:085,090,090 BAI/PAI-FCST=010,010,010/010,010,010 KFCST=3223 3233 3223 3233 27DAY-AP=010,007 27DAY-KP=4212 2232 2232 2212 WARNINGS= ALERTS= !!END-DATA!! NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 17 OCT 93 is not available. The Full Kp Indices for 17 OCT 93 are not available. SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY -------------------- Solar activity was very low during the period. An 18 degree filament near S12E62 disappeared sometime between 1117Z and 1221Z. A new region (S17E48) was numbered today as Region 7603. Solar activity forecast: solar activity is expected to be at very low to low levels. The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled levels for the past 24 hours. Geophysical activity forecast: the geomagnetic field is expected to be quiet to unsettled throughout the forecast period. STD: Yohkoh x-ray imagery shows an extension of the southern polar coronal crown rotating toward the central merdian, which may have a minor influence on levels of geophysical actity later this week or early next week. A special insert showing x-ray emissions from the Yohkoh spacecraft has been appended to this report. Event probabilities 19 oct-21 oct Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF Green Geomagnetic activity probabilities 19 oct-21 oct A. Middle Latitudes Active 10/10/10 Minor Storm 05/05/05 Major-Severe Storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 20/20/20 Minor Storm 10/10/10 Major-Severe Storm 05/05/05 HF propagation conditions were normal over all regions. Similar normal conditions will continue throughout the next 72 hours, through at least 21 October inclusive. COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS ======================================================== REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 18/2400Z OCTOBER ---------------------------------------------------------- NMBR LOCATION LO AREA Z LL NN MAG TYPE 7597 S18W63 085 0080 HSX 02 001 ALPHA 7601 N07W47 069 0020 AXX 03 005 ALPHA 7602 S08E39 343 0050 HSX 04 004 ALPHA 7603 S17E47 335 0000 AXX 01 001 ALPHA 7598 S09W62 084 PLAGE 7600 N14W22 044 PLAGE REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 19 OCTOBER TO 21 OCTOBER NMBR LAT LO 7595 N06 270 7593 S16 263 LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 18 OCTOBER, 1993 ------------------------------------------------------ BEGIN MAX END RGN LOC XRAY OP 245MHZ 10CM SWEEP NONE POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 18 OCTOBER, 1993 ---------------------------------------------------------- BEGIN MAX END LOCATION TYPE SIZE DUR II IV 18/A1117 B1221 S21E62 DSF INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 18/2400Z --------------------------------------------------- ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS EAST SOUTH WEST NORTH CAR TYPE POL AREA OBSN NO DATA AVAILABLE FOR ANALYSIS SUMMARY OF FLARE EVENTS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY ------------------------------------------------ Date Begin Max End Xray Op Region Locn 2695 MHz 8800 MHz 15.4 GHz ------ ---- ---- ---- ---- -- ------ ------ --------- --------- --------- 17 Oct: 0032 0039 0052 B1.3 0332 0335 0337 B1.0 0514 0519 0523 B1.5 1109 1112 1114 B1.0 1311 1316 1323 B1.2 1358 1406 1411 B3.9 SF 7597 S21W40 1442 1446 1450 B1.5 2318 2322 2324 B2.0 REGION FLARE STATISTICS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY ------------------------------------------------ C M X S 1 2 3 4 Total (%) -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --- ------ Region 7597: 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 001 (12.5) Uncorrellated: 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 007 (87.5) Total Events: 008 optical and x-ray. EVENTS WITH SWEEPS AND/OR OPTICAL PHENOMENA FOR THE LAST UTC DAY ---------------------------------------------------------------- Date Begin Max End Xray Op Region Locn Sweeps/Optical Observations ------ ---- ---- ---- ---- -- ------ ------ --------------------------- NO EVENTS OBSERVED. NOTES: All times are in Universal Time (UT). Characters preceding begin, max, and end times are defined as: B = Before, U = Uncertain, A = After. All times associated with x-ray flares (ex. flares which produce associated x-ray bursts) refer to the begin, max, and end times of the x-rays. Flares which are not associated with x-ray signatures use the optical observations to determine the begin, max, and end times. Acronyms used to identify sweeps and optical phenomena include: II = Type II Sweep Frequency Event III = Type III Sweep IV = Type IV Sweep V = Type V Sweep Continuum = Continuum Radio Event Loop = Loop Prominence System, Spray = Limb Spray, Surge = Bright Limb Surge, EPL = Eruptive Prominence on the Limb. SPECIAL INSERT: CURRENT X-RAY EMISSIONS FROM THE JAPANESE YOHKOH SPACECRAFT =========================================================================== 18 October 1993, 08:10 UTC North .......... ....,,,,::::::::,,,,,.. .. ..,,,:::::::::,,,,,,,:,,,:,.. ...,,,,,,,..... ...,,:::::,,,,,,,,,,..,,:,,,,.......,.,,,,,,::;;:::,,,,... ..,,:::,,,,,....,.......,,,,,,,,.,..............,:;;;::,,,,... ....,,:::,,,,,,...,,,,,,,........,,,,,,,,,......,,,,,,,:::::,,,,,,... ......,,:::,,,,,,,,,,,.,,,,,,...,,,,,.,::;:,,,,,,,,,..,.,,,,::;;;:::,,,,... ...,,,,::::,:,:::,,,,,,,::::,,:,:::::,::::::;-;::::::,,,,,,,,,:,,:;;;::::,,,. ..,,:::;;;:,,:-++-:,,,:::;;;;;;:::::::::;;;-------;;:;::::,,,:::,:::--;;;::,,. .,,::;;--+-;:,;!1!+;::::;;;-----;::::;;:;;;;;----------;;::,,,:,::::::---;::,,, .,::;;;-+|+---|22!---;:;----------;::::;;----;;;----;;-;;;:,,,,,,,,,,:---;;::,, ,:::;;;-;;--1+!!+-;;--;;;-+-++|++++-;:::---|!21-;----;;;;;:::,,,,,,,,,:;|-;:::, ,::;;;;;;;;;;:;;;;;::::::;-++++++-++-;::-+|!2*#!;-;;;;;;:::::::,,,,,,,::+-;;::: ,:::;;;;:;;::::,,,,,::::;;;-----++++-++-+-+++!!;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;::,,,:,,::-+-;;:: ,:;::;;:,,:,,::::::,::-::;;---++++++++++++--;:;;---------+-|*1-;:,,,.,:;;+--;:: .:::;;+;,,:,::;;:::::,::::;---++||+++-----;;;;;-----------+!41+;:,,,,,,:;|+--;; .,::;-|-,,,,:;-+|+;;:::::;;;--++||+++++-;;;;;:::;;;---------+-;:::;:,::;+|+--;; .,,:;-|!;:;;-!3**3+;;;;;;;;;;-+++|++++----------;;;;---;--;;;;;;--++-+++||+--;; ..,:;-1*1--+|1441+--;;;;;:::;-++||++++!+-;+++++---;--;;;-------|||242!|+|++-;;: .,,:;;+!|--+!32!|-;;;;::::::::;-++||++-;--++|++-;;;;;-+++!!!!|!||2431!|++-;::,, .,,::;;---;-++--;;;:;;;;;;;::,,..,,:;;;;-+++++----;;--++||!12213@*2!!!|+-::,... ..,,:;;--+-;;;:::;::;;;;;;:. :-+++|+++++-----;;--++|!!!1*@#31||!!|+-::,,. ..,,::;;-----:,,:;;;;;;;:... :+|++++++--;;;;;;;;;--+|!2444211!|||++-;::,, ..,,,::;;----;;;:;:::,,. ,-++++++--;--;;;;;;;---+!!11!|||||++--;;;:,, ...,,,::;;--+-;:,,,.. Coronal .,,;----;;;;;;-;::::;;;-----+++++++--;;::::,, ...,,,:::;;;;:, Hole ..::::::::::::::::::;-----++++----;;;:,,,,, ......,,,,,,,,. ....,,,::,,::::,,,::;--+++---;;;:::::,,... ....,,,,,,,,,,,,:::;--+++----;;:::::,,,..... ...,.,:::::;;;;--+++------;;;::::,,,,..... .,:::;;;;;;;;---;;;;;::::,,,.. ..,,,,,,::::::::::::,,..... ...........,,,....... South KEY: East and west limbs are to the left and right respectively. Emission strength, from minimum to maximum are coded in the following way: [space] . , : ; - + | ! 1 2 3 4 * # @ Units used are arbitrary, for illustrative purposes. Get "showasc.zip" from "pub/solar/Software" at the anonymous FTP site: xi.uleth.ca (IP # 142.66.3.29) to view these images on VGA screens. ** End of Daily Report **