Lines: 163 Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 15 October Followup-To: rec.radio.amateur.misc,rec.radio.shortwave Approved: rec-radio-info@ve6mgs.ampr.ab.ca Path: news.cs.tut.fi!news.funet.fi!sunic!pipex!uunet!destroyer!nntp.cs.ubc.ca!alberta!adec23!ve6mgs!usenet Date: Sat, 16 Oct 1993 17:47:49 MDT From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler) Newsgroups: rec.radio.info Message-ID: <9310162347.AA08017@rho.uleth.ca> /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\ DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY 15 OCTOBER, 1993 /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\ (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data) SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 15 OCTOBER, 1993 ----------------------------------------------------------- !!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 288, 10/15/93 10.7 FLUX=094.1 90-AVG=096 SSN=076 BKI=1111 1100 BAI=002 BGND-XRAY=A8.2 FLU1=9.4E+05 FLU10=1.2E+04 PKI=2221 2111 PAI=005 BOU-DEV=005,006,008,008,008,006,004,002 DEV-AVG=005 NT SWF=00:000 XRAY-MAX= B3.8 @ 1046UT XRAY-MIN= A7.3 @ 2359UT XRAY-AVG= B1.1 NEUTN-MAX= +004% @ 1045UT NEUTN-MIN= -002% @ 1505UT NEUTN-AVG= +1.4% PCA-MAX= +0.0DB @ 2355UT PCA-MIN= -0.4DB @ 1735UT PCA-AVG= -0.0DB BOUTF-MAX=55366NT @ 2213UT BOUTF-MIN=55338NT @ 1749UT BOUTF-AVG=55356NT GOES7-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT GOES7-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT G7-AVG=+071,+000,+000 GOES6-MAX=P:+112NT@ 1936UT GOES6-MIN=N:-063NT@ 1258UT G6-AVG=+092,+015,-038 FLUXFCST=STD:090,090,090;SESC:090,090,090 BAI/PAI-FCST=010,010,010/007,010,010 KFCST=2223 3232 2223 3232 27DAY-AP=005,005 27DAY-KP=2223 1111 2122 1211 WARNINGS= ALERTS= !!END-DATA!! NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 14 OCT 93 was 45.0. The Full Kp Indices for 14 OCT 93 are: 3o 2+ 2+ 2- 2o 2+ 2- 1o SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY -------------------- Solar activity was very low. There were no significant flares this period. Region 7601(N04W02) and Region 7602(S09E80) were numbered today. Solar activity forecast: solar activity is expected to be at very low to low levels. The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for the past 24 hours. Geophysical activity forecast: the geomagnetic field is expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels. Event probabilities 16 oct-18 oct Class M 01/01/01 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF Green Geomagnetic activity probabilities 16 oct-18 oct A. Middle Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 10/10/10 Major-Severe Storm 01/01/05 B. High Latitudes Active 15/15/15 Minor Storm 10/05/05 Major-Severe Storm 01/01/05 HF propagation conditions were normal over all regions. Many middle to equatorial paths experienced above-normal propagation with MUF enhancements of as much as 20 to 30 percent above normal values during the day and evening hours. Normal propagation is expected to continue throughout the next 72 hours. COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS ======================================================== REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 15/2400Z OCTOBER ---------------------------------------------------------- NMBR LOCATION LO AREA Z LL NN MAG TYPE 7597 S20W19 081 0160 EAO 12 009 BETA 7598 S09W23 085 0000 BXO 03 002 BETA 7600 N13E17 045 0010 BXO 03 003 BETA 7601 N05W06 068 0040 CAO 04 010 BETA 7602 S09E74 348 0090 HAX 02 002 ALPHA 7596 N04W72 134 PLAGE 7599 S12W49 111 PLAGE REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 16 OCTOBER TO 18 OCTOBER NMBR LAT LO NONE LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 15 OCTOBER, 1993 ------------------------------------------------------ BEGIN MAX END RGN LOC XRAY OP 245MHZ 10CM SWEEP NONE POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 15 OCTOBER, 1993 ---------------------------------------------------------- BEGIN MAX END LOCATION TYPE SIZE DUR II IV NO EVENTS OBSERVED INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 15/2400Z --------------------------------------------------- ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS EAST SOUTH WEST NORTH CAR TYPE POL AREA OBSN NO DATA AVAILABLE FOR ANALYSIS SUMMARY OF FLARE EVENTS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY ------------------------------------------------ Date Begin Max End Xray Op Region Locn 2695 MHz 8800 MHz 15.4 GHz ------ ---- ---- ---- ---- -- ------ ------ --------- --------- --------- 14 Oct: 0730 0834 0900 B5.2 2051 2058 2103 B1.8 REGION FLARE STATISTICS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY ------------------------------------------------ C M X S 1 2 3 4 Total (%) -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- --- ------ Uncorrellated: 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 002 (100.0) Total Events: 002 optical and x-ray. EVENTS WITH SWEEPS AND/OR OPTICAL PHENOMENA FOR THE LAST UTC DAY ---------------------------------------------------------------- Date Begin Max End Xray Op Region Locn Sweeps/Optical Observations ------ ---- ---- ---- ---- -- ------ ------ --------------------------- NO EVENTS OBSERVED. NOTES: All times are in Universal Time (UT). Characters preceding begin, max, and end times are defined as: B = Before, U = Uncertain, A = After. All times associated with x-ray flares (ex. flares which produce associated x-ray bursts) refer to the begin, max, and end times of the x-rays. Flares which are not associated with x-ray signatures use the optical observations to determine the begin, max, and end times. Acronyms used to identify sweeps and optical phenomena include: II = Type II Sweep Frequency Event III = Type III Sweep IV = Type IV Sweep V = Type V Sweep Continuum = Continuum Radio Event Loop = Loop Prominence System, Spray = Limb Spray, Surge = Bright Limb Surge, EPL = Eruptive Prominence on the Limb. ** End of Daily Report **