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From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
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Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 31 December
To: solar-daily@lut.fi
Date: Fri, 31 Dec 93 21:16:16 MST
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                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                31 DECEMBER, 1993

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


              **  Best Wishes for a Happy and Pleasant 1994  **

SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 31 DECEMBER, 1993
------------------------------------------------------------

NOTE: Intense stratospheric warming is continuing over central and
      northeastern Siberia, Alaska, and Northwestern Canada and the
      Siberian and Canadian Arctic.  Warming is spreading north and
      northeastwards.  Temperature gradient is reversed between 60N
      and the pole at 10 HPA and upwards in the upper stratosphere.

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 365, 12/31/93
10.7 FLUX=140.8  90-AVG=100        SSN=134      BKI=0344 3312  BAI=013
BGND-XRAY=B9.0     FLU1=3.1E+05  FLU10=1.1E+04  PKI=1355 3322  PAI=018
  BOU-DEV=002,027,050,050,023,020,008,015   DEV-AVG=024 NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= C4.8   @ 0421UT    XRAY-MIN= B7.1   @ 0130UT   XRAY-AVG= C1.3
NEUTN-MAX= +003%  @ 0445UT   NEUTN-MIN= -002%  @ 1510UT  NEUTN-AVG= +0.1%
  PCA-MAX= +0.1DB @ 1110UT     PCA-MIN= -0.2DB @ 1700UT    PCA-AVG= +0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55352NT @ 2359UT   BOUTF-MIN=55323NT @ 0812UT  BOUTF-AVG=55340NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT   GOES7-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT  G7-AVG=+048,+000,+000
GOES6-MAX=P:+110NT@ 1815UT   GOES6-MIN=N:-129NT@ 0819UT  G6-AVG=+070,+034,-052
 FLUXFCST=STD:140,135,130;SESC:140,135,130 BAI/PAI-FCST=010,010,010/015,012,012
    KFCST=0123 4422 0123 4422  27DAY-AP=008,009   27DAY-KP=2222 2232 2123 3232
 WARNINGS=*SWF;*MAJFLR
   ALERTS=**245STRM:0726-1052UTC
!!END-DATA!!

NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 30 DEC 93 was  63.8.
      The Full Kp Indices for 30 DEC 93 are: 1+ 0+ 2- 2-   2- 1+ 1- 0o 


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was low. Intermittent C-class activity was
       the order of the day, with the brunt of the flares originating
       in or near the Region 7640 (N08W80) complex. Reports
       characterize this area as being largely stable. Region 7645
       (N11E43) in the opposite hemisphere had only a few small
       flares, but remains complex magnetically. One new region was
       born on the disk, 7647 (S15E34).

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to be
       low to moderate. Regions 7640 and 7645 hold the best promise
       of an isolated M-class event.

            The geomagnetic field was quiet early in the period, then
       experienced minor to major storm conditions at the midway
       point. This disturbance, thought to be related to a western
       hemisphere coronal hole, now seems to be weakening.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to be predominantly unsettled, with episodes of
       active conditions likely during local nighttimes.

            Event probabilities 01 jan-03 jan

                             Class M    50/50/50
                             Class X    05/05/05
                             Proton     05/05/05
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 01 jan-03 jan

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                25/15/20
                        Minor Storm           25/05/10
                        Major-Severe Storm    05/01/01

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                30/15/15
                        Minor Storm           30/05/25
                        Major-Severe Storm    15/01/01

            HF propagation conditions were near-normal over the low
       and middle latitudes.  Conditions were more unstable for the
       higher latitude paths due to periods of increased geomagnetic
       and auroral activity.  Occasionally poor propagation conditions
       existed over the night-sector high latitude paths, particularly
       on transauroral circuits.  Similar, if not improving,
       conditions are expected over the next 72 hours.  Near-normal
       propagation should return to all regions by 02 or 03 January.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 31/2400Z DECEMBER
-----------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7640  N08W80  207  0850 EKI  15  014 BETA-GAMMA-DELTA
7641  N05W75  202  0070 HSX  02  001 ALPHA
7644  N11W68  195  0080 DAO  07  008 BETA
7645  N11E43  084  0560 EKI  13  025 BETA-GAMMA-DELTA
7646  S09E42  085  0350 EKI  11  020 BETA
7647  S15E34  093  0010 BXO  04  006 BETA
7643  S18W23  150                    PLAGE
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 01 JANUARY TO 03 JANUARY
NMBR LAT    LO
NONE


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 31 DECEMBER, 1993
-------------------------------------------------------
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP
 0041 0049 0051 7645  N13E49 C2.5  SF    640
 0332 0332 0333                          250
 1115 1122 1126 7640  N09W62 C2.1  SF    140
 1427 1428 1429                          530


POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 31 DECEMBER, 1993
-----------------------------------------------------------
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
     NO EVENTS OBSERVED


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 30/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
55   S08W44 S12W47 N24W63 N24W63  186  ISO   POS   012 10830A


SUMMARY OF FLARE EVENTS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY
------------------------------------------------

 Date   Begin  Max   End  Xray  Op Region  Locn    2695 MHz  8800 MHz  15.4 GHz
------  ----  ----  ----  ----  -- ------ ------  --------- --------- ---------
30 Dec: 0027  0032  0054        SF  7640  N08W43                       
        0149  0203  0214  C4.3                                         
        0310  0317  0319  C1.8                                         
        0344  0348  0353  C1.5                                         
        0528  0531  0536  C1.3                                         
        0617  0622  0626  C8.0                          29        33        60
        0704  0714  0718  C1.3                                         
        0747  0806  0812  C1.6                                         
        0914  0919  0928  C7.1                                         
        1140  1144  1150  C1.9                                         
        1159  1202  1205  C1.4                                         
        1211  1227  1242        SF  7644  N10W50                       
        1220  1227  1305        SF  7645  N09E61                       
        1251  1255  1257  C1.2  SF  7644  N09W51                       
        1308  1314  1319        SF  7645  N10E62                       
        1319  1323  1326  C1.2  SF  7645  N09E62                       
        1347  1426  1509        SF  7645  N10E61                       
        1357  1400  1418        SF  7644  N10W50                       
        1509  1539  1600        SF  7645  N10E59                       
        1530  1616  1629  C5.5  1N  7640  N12W57                       
        1704  1713  1720  C7.7  SN  7645  N10E58                  33   
        1740  1755  1818        SF  7640  N08W61                       
        1820  1822  1843        SF  7645  N10E60                       
        1848  1848  1904        SF  7645  N10E56                       
        1912  1917  1921  C3.0  SN  7645  N09E58                       
        2002  2018  2024  C1.6  SF  7645  N09E58                       
        2104  2108  2112  C2.3                                         
        2115  2119  2124  C7.6  SN  7640  N11W61        58        30   
        2208  2211  2217        SF  7640  N08W67                       


REGION FLARE STATISTICS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY
------------------------------------------------

                C   M   X     S   1   2   3   4   Total   (%)
               --  --  --    --  --  --  --  --    ---  ------
  Region 7640:  2   0   0     4   1   0   0   0    005  (16.7)
  Region 7644:  1   0   0     3   0   0   0   0    003  (10.0)
  Region 7645:  4   1   0    10   1   0   0   0    011  (36.7)
Uncorrellated: 11   0   0     0   0   0   0   0    011  (36.7)

 Total Events: 030 optical and x-ray.


EVENTS WITH SWEEPS AND/OR OPTICAL PHENOMENA FOR THE LAST UTC DAY
----------------------------------------------------------------

 Date   Begin  Max   End  Xray  Op Region  Locn    Sweeps/Optical Observations
------  ----  ----  ----  ----  -- ------ ------   ---------------------------
30 Dec: 0027  0032  0054        SF  7640  N08W43   III
        0149  0203  0214  C4.3                     III
        0344  0348  0353  C1.5                     III
        0540  0555  0606  M1.6  1N  7645  N10E70   III
        0747  0806  0812  C1.6                     III
        0914  0919  0928  C7.1                     III
        1159  1202  1205  C1.4                     III
        1251  1255  1257  C1.2  SF  7644  N09W51   III
        2104  2108  2112  C2.3                     III

NOTES:
     All times are in Universal Time (UT).  Characters preceding begin, max,
     and end times are defined as:  B = Before,  U = Uncertain,  A = After.
     All times associated with x-ray flares (ex. flares which produce
     associated x-ray bursts) refer to the begin, max, and end times of the
     x-rays.  Flares which are not associated with x-ray signatures use the
     optical observations to determine the begin, max, and end times.

     Acronyms used to identify sweeps and optical phenomena include:

          II        = Type II Sweep Frequency Event
          III       = Type III Sweep
          IV        = Type IV Sweep
          V         = Type V Sweep
          Continuum = Continuum Radio Event
          Loop      = Loop Prominence System,
          Spray     = Limb Spray,
          Surge     = Bright Limb Surge,
          EPL       = Eruptive Prominence on the Limb.


**  End of Daily Report  **


