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From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
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Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 29 December
To: solar-daily@lut.fi
Date: Wed, 29 Dec 93 22:24:10 MST
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                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                29 DECEMBER, 1993

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 29 DECEMBER, 1993
------------------------------------------------------------

NOTE: The Aleutian high has intensified over the last several days.  New
      stratospheric warming is also being observed over eastern Siberia.

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 363, 12/29/93
10.7 FLUX=128.7  90-AVG=099        SSN=112      BKI=0110 0000  BAI=000
BGND-XRAY=B6.7     FLU1=6.6E+05  FLU10=1.1E+04  PKI=1110 1111  PAI=003
  BOU-DEV=004,005,006,004,004,004,003,002   DEV-AVG=004 NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= C9.4   @ 1549UT    XRAY-MIN= B5.9   @ 1926UT   XRAY-AVG= B9.7
NEUTN-MAX= +002%  @ 0610UT   NEUTN-MIN= -002%  @ 1000UT  NEUTN-AVG= +0.0%
  PCA-MAX= +0.1DB @ 1935UT     PCA-MIN= -0.4DB @ 1840UT    PCA-AVG= -0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55352NT @ 1426UT   BOUTF-MIN=55333NT @ 1846UT  BOUTF-AVG=55346NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT   GOES7-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT  G7-AVG=+069,+000,+000
GOES6-MAX=P:+124NT@ 1704UT   GOES6-MIN=N:-054NT@ 0938UT  G6-AVG=+093,+029,-037
 FLUXFCST=STD:135,130,125;SESC:135,130,125 BAI/PAI-FCST=025,030,020/025,035,020
    KFCST=3334 5444 4445 5544  27DAY-AP=039,037   27DAY-KP=4555 4455 6565 4332
 WARNINGS=*SWF;*MAJFLR
   ALERTS=
!!END-DATA!!

NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 28 DEC 93 was  56.0.
      The Full Kp Indices for 28 DEC 93 are: 0o 1- 0+ 0o   1- 1o 2o 2- 


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was low. Region 7640 (N09W52) produced
       only three C-class flares this period, the largest being a
       C9/SF flare at 29/1549UT. This region retained its magnetic
       complexity and has begun to show penumbral growth again. New
       Region 7646 (S10E69), numbered early in the period, produced a
       single C-class flare. Region 7645 (N11E67) was also numbered
       this period.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to be
       low to moderate. Region 7640 still has a fair chance of an
       occasional M-class flare and an outside chance of an isolated
       X-class flare. Regions 7645 and 7646 both have a chance of an
       isolated M-class flare.

            The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for
       the past 24 hours.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to be quiet to active owing to a favorably positioned
       coronal hole.

            Event probabilities 30 dec-01 jan

                             Class M    60/60/60
                             Class X    05/05/05
                             Proton     05/05/05
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 30 dec-01 jan

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                25/30/30
                        Minor Storm           20/30/30
                        Major-Severe Storm    05/10/10

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                30/30/30
                        Minor Storm           25/30/30
                        Major-Severe Storm    15/15/15

            HF propagation conditions were normal over all regions.
       Conditions are expected to become degraded on 30 or 31 December
       due to coronal hole effects.  Poor to very poor propagation
       should dominate over the high and polar latitude paths if the
       disturbance materializes.  Middle latitudes should see mostly
       good to occasionally fair propagation, with poorest propagation
       occuring over all regions during the night sector periods.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 29/2400Z DECEMBER
-----------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7640  N09W52  205  0740 FKI  17  036 BETA-GAMMA-DELTA
7641  N05W47  200  0090 HSX  02  001 ALPHA
7644  N10W39  192  0040 CRO  06  008 BETA
7645  N11E67  086  0430 DAO  08  011 BETA
7646  S10E69  084  0170 DAO  08  006 BETA
7643  S18E03  150                    PLAGE
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 30 DECEMBER TO 01 JANUARY
NMBR LAT    LO
NONE


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 29 DECEMBER, 1993
-------------------------------------------------------
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP
NONE



POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 29 DECEMBER, 1993
-----------------------------------------------------------
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
29/A0949             B2320       S05E31   DSF


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 29/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
55   N59E38 S13W24 N30W45 N59W22  170  EXT   POS   058 10830A


SUMMARY OF FLARE EVENTS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY
------------------------------------------------

 Date   Begin  Max   End  Xray  Op Region  Locn    2695 MHz  8800 MHz  15.4 GHz
------  ----  ----  ----  ----  -- ------ ------  --------- --------- ---------
28 Dec: 0022  0027  0031  C1.7                                         
        0152  0157  0207        SF  7640  N07W25                       
        0245  0254  0306  C8.4  SF  7640  N09W24                       
        0240  0243  0258        SF  7644  N10W15                       
        0530  0534  0537  C2.6                                         
        0648  0652  0656  C3.0  SF  7644  N11W16                       
        0756  0803  0816        SF  7640  N05W33                       
        0833  0836  0846        SF  7640  N04W35                       
        0857  0904  0910  C2.7  SF  7640  N06W34        29        21   
        1013  1015  1026        SF  7644  N11W18                       
        1059  1104  1108  C2.1                                         
        1205  1210  1214  C4.6                         130        25   
        1310  1315  1329  C1.7                                         
        1530  1534  1538        SF  7640  N08W36                       
        1609  1613  1616  C2.6  SF  7644  N13W19                       
        2002  2005  2018        SF  7640  N08W35                       
        2138  2143  2150  C1.1                                         
        2153  2157  2206        SF  7640  N07W39                       
        2220  2221  2224        SF  7640  N06W42                       
        2244  2307  2322  C5.0                                         


REGION FLARE STATISTICS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY
------------------------------------------------

                C   M   X     S   1   2   3   4   Total   (%)
               --  --  --    --  --  --  --  --    ---  ------
  Region 7640:  2   1   0     9   1   0   0   0    010  (47.6)
  Region 7644:  2   0   0     4   0   0   0   0    004  (19.0)
Uncorrellated:  7   0   0     0   0   0   0   0    007  (33.3)

 Total Events: 021 optical and x-ray.


EVENTS WITH SWEEPS AND/OR OPTICAL PHENOMENA FOR THE LAST UTC DAY
----------------------------------------------------------------

 Date   Begin  Max   End  Xray  Op Region  Locn    Sweeps/Optical Observations
------  ----  ----  ----  ----  -- ------ ------   ---------------------------
28 Dec: 2244  2307  2322  C5.0                     III

NOTES:
     All times are in Universal Time (UT).  Characters preceding begin, max,
     and end times are defined as:  B = Before,  U = Uncertain,  A = After.
     All times associated with x-ray flares (ex. flares which produce
     associated x-ray bursts) refer to the begin, max, and end times of the
     x-rays.  Flares which are not associated with x-ray signatures use the
     optical observations to determine the begin, max, and end times.

     Acronyms used to identify sweeps and optical phenomena include:

          II        = Type II Sweep Frequency Event
          III       = Type III Sweep
          IV        = Type IV Sweep
          V         = Type V Sweep
          Continuum = Continuum Radio Event
          Loop      = Loop Prominence System,
          Spray     = Limb Spray,
          Surge     = Bright Limb Surge,
          EPL       = Eruptive Prominence on the Limb.


**  End of Daily Report  **


