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From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
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Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 28 December
To: solar-daily@lut.fi
Date: Tue, 28 Dec 93 22:18:33 MST
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                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                28 DECEMBER, 1993

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 28 DECEMBER, 1993
------------------------------------------------------------

NOTE: Intense stratospheric warming exists over Siberia and is expanding
      northwards.

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 362, 12/28/93
10.7 FLUX=133.6  90-AVG=099        SSN=108      BKI=0000 0100  BAI=000
BGND-XRAY=B8.2     FLU1=6.3E+05  FLU10=1.0E+04  PKI=0100 1122  PAI=003
  BOU-DEV=003,003,004,004,003,008,013,004   DEV-AVG=005 NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= M1.1   @ 1659UT    XRAY-MIN= B6.4   @ 2230UT   XRAY-AVG= C1.4
NEUTN-MAX= +002%  @ 2225UT   NEUTN-MIN= -002%  @ 2145UT  NEUTN-AVG= +0.0%
  PCA-MAX= +0.1DB @ 0945UT     PCA-MIN= -0.2DB @ 1325UT    PCA-AVG= -0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55350NT @ 1404UT   BOUTF-MIN=55342NT @ 2131UT  BOUTF-AVG=55346NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT   GOES7-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT  G7-AVG=+060,+000,+000
GOES6-MAX=P:+115NT@ 2018UT   GOES6-MIN=N:-056NT@ 0912UT  G6-AVG=+082,+029,-038
 FLUXFCST=STD:135,135,130;SESC:135,135,130 BAI/PAI-FCST=025,030,020/025,035,020
    KFCST=3334 4433 4450 4535  27DAY-AP=022,039   27DAY-KP=2115 5435 4555 4455
 WARNINGS=*SWF;*MAJFLR
   ALERTS=**M1.1/1N@1659UTC
!!END-DATA!!

NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 27 DEC 93 was  55.0.
      The Full Kp Indices for 27 DEC 93 are: 1o 1+ 2- 1+   2- 2+ 1o 1- 


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was moderate by virtue of a single
       M1/1N flare in Region 7640 (N09W39) at 28/1659UT. This region
       produced only three C-class flares and is beginning to decay.
       Region 7644 (N12W26) produced a single small C-class flare and
       is decaying as well.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to be
       low to moderate. Region 7640 has a good chance of an occasional
       M-class flare and an outside chance of an isolated X-class
       flare.

            The geomagnetic field has been at quiet levels for
       the past 24 hours.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next 12 to 18 hours
       then unsettled to minor storm for the remainder of the forecast
       period as a large coronal hole rotates into favorable position.
       High latitude stations could see major to severe storm levels.

            Event probabilities 29 dec-31 dec

                             Class M    50/50/50
                             Class X    05/05/05
                             Proton     05/05/05
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 29 dec-31 dec

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                30/30/30
                        Minor Storm           25/25/25
                        Major-Severe Storm    05/10/05

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                30/30/30
                        Minor Storm           30/30/30
                        Major-Severe Storm    10/15/10

            HF propagation conditions were normal over all regions.
       Conditions are expected to become degraded over the next 24 to
       48 hours as a well placed coronal hole elevates levels of
       geophysical activity.  High and polar latitude paths should see
       the heaviest degradation, although middle latitude paths will
       also notice the effects of this activity on night-sector paths.
       Conditions are expected to be the poorest on 30 December.
       Recovery to near-normal is not expected until early January.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 28/2400Z DECEMBER
-----------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7640  N10W39  205  0550 FKI  16  040 BETA-GAMMA
7641  N06W34  200  0090 HSX  02  002 ALPHA
7644  N12W26  192  0050 CSO  09  009 BETA
7645  N11E80  086  0210 DSI  06  004 BETA
7646  S09E83  083  0040 CSO  05  003 BETA
7643  S18E16  150                    PLAGE
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 29 DECEMBER TO 31 DECEMBER
NMBR LAT    LO
7634 S12   073


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 28 DECEMBER, 1993
-------------------------------------------------------
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP
 1205 1210 1214              C4.6       1300 130
 1650 1659 1706 7640  N07W37 M1.1  1N        30
 2244 2307 2322              C5.0        270



POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 28 DECEMBER, 1993
-----------------------------------------------------------
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
     NO EVENTS OBSERVED


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 28/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
                 NO DATA AVAILABLE FOR ANALYSIS


SUMMARY OF FLARE EVENTS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY
------------------------------------------------

 Date   Begin  Max   End  Xray  Op Region  Locn    2695 MHz  8800 MHz  15.4 GHz
------  ----  ----  ----  ----  -- ------ ------  --------- --------- ---------
27 Dec:B0218 U0219 A0240        SF  7640  N09E04                       
        0313  0318  0322  C1.6  SF  7640  N04W18        30             
        0353  0357  0359  C1.5  SF  7640  N05W19                       
        0909  0915  0923  C4.8  SF  7640  N07W13        31             
        0950  0955  0958  C4.3  SF  7640  N06W25                       
        1226  1231  1236  C1.3                                         
        1555  1600  1605  C1.4  SF  7640  N07W24                       
        2207  2208 A2312        SF  7644  N09W18                       


REGION FLARE STATISTICS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY
------------------------------------------------

                C   M   X     S   1   2   3   4   Total   (%)
               --  --  --    --  --  --  --  --    ---  ------
  Region 7640:  5   1   0     7   0   0   0   0    007  (77.8)
  Region 7644:  0   0   0     1   0   0   0   0    001  (11.1)
Uncorrellated:  1   0   0     0   0   0   0   0    001  (11.1)

 Total Events: 009 optical and x-ray.


EVENTS WITH SWEEPS AND/OR OPTICAL PHENOMENA FOR THE LAST UTC DAY
----------------------------------------------------------------

 Date   Begin  Max   End  Xray  Op Region  Locn    Sweeps/Optical Observations
------  ----  ----  ----  ----  -- ------ ------   ---------------------------
27 Dec: 0313  0318  0322  C1.6  SF  7640  N04W18   III

NOTES:
     All times are in Universal Time (UT).  Characters preceding begin, max,
     and end times are defined as:  B = Before,  U = Uncertain,  A = After.
     All times associated with x-ray flares (ex. flares which produce
     associated x-ray bursts) refer to the begin, max, and end times of the
     x-rays.  Flares which are not associated with x-ray signatures use the
     optical observations to determine the begin, max, and end times.

     Acronyms used to identify sweeps and optical phenomena include:

          II        = Type II Sweep Frequency Event
          III       = Type III Sweep
          IV  

