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From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
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Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 17 December
To: solar-daily@lut.fi
Date: Sat, 18 Dec 93 6:38:50 MST
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                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                17 DECEMBER, 1993

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 17 DECEMBER, 1993
------------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 351, 12/17/93
10.7 FLUX=083.8  90-AVG=098        SSN=047      BKI=3432 3333  BAI=015
BGND-XRAY=A2.3     FLU1=5.7E+06  FLU10=1.2E+04  PKI=3333 4333  PAI=016
  BOU-DEV=021,044,023,016,035,025,030,023   DEV-AVG=027 NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= C2.0   @ 2028UT    XRAY-MIN= A1.5   @ 1259UT   XRAY-AVG= B2.1
NEUTN-MAX= +002%  @ 2130UT   NEUTN-MIN= -003%  @ 2250UT  NEUTN-AVG= -0.0%
  PCA-MAX= +0.1DB @ 0950UT     PCA-MIN= -0.3DB @ 1535UT    PCA-AVG= -0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55356NT @ 2357UT   BOUTF-MIN=55325NT @ 2021UT  BOUTF-AVG=55347NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT   GOES7-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT  G7-AVG=+062,+000,+000
GOES6-MAX=P:+126NT@ 1821UT   GOES6-MIN=N:-067NT@ 1003UT  G6-AVG=+085,+022,-031
 FLUXFCST=STD:080,082,082;SESC:080,082,082 BAI/PAI-FCST=012,020,015/016,022,020
    KFCST=4443 3211 2233 4544  27DAY-AP=009,005   27DAY-KP=3411 2222 2212 2221
 WARNINGS=
   ALERTS=**SWEEP:IV=1@2039UTC(N07E43)
!!END-DATA!!

NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 16 DEC 93 was  44.0.
      The Full Kp Indices for 16 DEC 93 are: 1+ 3+ 3+ 4o   4- 4- 3+ 4- 


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity became low due to a long duration C2/SN
       flare at 17/2029Z from Region 7635 (N02E39). At press time, a
       report was received from the Culgoora observatory that a Type
       IV may accompany this flare (STD: a weak Type IV was confirmed
       from this event). No sunspot dynamics were observed in this
       region and the mixed polarities observed yesterday weakened.
       Region 7637 (N07W18) ceased the growth noted on 16 Dec and
       stabilized.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity should return
       to a very low level. The long duration C2 flare mentioned
       above is characteristic of a decaying region and additional
       or larger events are not likely.

            The geomagnetic field was unsettled to active for the
       entire period as the coronal hole related disturbance slowly
       subsides. Again today, some high latitude stations experienced
       minor to major storming.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  unsettled to active
       conditions should be experienced through 18 Dec as
       the current coronal hole disturbance decays. A filament
       related disturbance is expected to begin on 19 Dec and
       continue into 20 Dec resulting in mostly active levels for
       that interval.

            Event probabilities 18 dec-20 dec

                             Class M    01/01/01
                             Class X    01/01/01
                             Proton     01/01/01
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 18 dec-20 dec

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                30/30/25
                        Minor Storm           10/20/10
                        Major-Severe Storm    01/05/05

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                30/30/25
                        Minor Storm           10/20/10
                        Major-Severe Storm    05/10/05

            HF propagation conditions were below-normal over the high
       and polar latitude paths.  Enhanced geomagnetic and auroral
       activity has been responsible for producing generally poor to
       occasionally very poor conditions, particularly on night-sector
       high-latitude paths.  Middle and low latitudes were less
       disturbed and retained near-normal propagation with increased
       levels of night-sector fading and some signal distortion.
       Conditions are not expected to improve over the next 24 hours.
       A filament-related disturbance should keep propagation
       conditions below-normal over the high and polar latitude paths,
       with an outside chance for producing below-normal conditions
       for middle latitude paths.  Night sectors will continue to see
       the strongest degradation.  Some gradual improvements should
       begin to be observed on 19 and 20 December.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 17 DECEMBER, 1993
-------------------------------------------------------
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP
 0728 0728 0728                          150
 1948 2039 2150 7635  N07E43 C2.0  SF                  IV



POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 17 DECEMBER, 1993
-----------------------------------------------------------
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
17/ 1948     2039     2150       N07E43   LDE    C2.0  122     1


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 17/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
53   S42W23 S52W28 S18W78 S17W68  005  ISO   NEG   022 10830A
54   S03E58 S10E52 S07E47 S01E53  264  ISO   POS   001 10830A


SUMMARY OF FLARE EVENTS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY
------------------------------------------------

 Date   Begin  Max   End  Xray  Op Region  Locn    2695 MHz  8800 MHz  15.4 GHz
------  ----  ----  ----  ----  -- ------ ------  --------- --------- ---------
NO EVENTS OBSERVED.


REGION FLARE STATISTICS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY
------------------------------------------------

                C   M   X     S   1   2   3   4   Total   (%)
               --  --  --    --  --  --  --  --    ---  ------
Uncorrellated:  0   0   0     0   0   0   0   0    000  ( 0.0)

 Total Events: 000 optical and x-ray.


EVENTS WITH SWEEPS AND/OR OPTICAL PHENOMENA FOR THE LAST UTC DAY
----------------------------------------------------------------

 Date   Begin  Max   End  Xray  Op Region  Locn    Sweeps/Optical Observations
------  ----  ----  ----  ----  -- ------ ------   ---------------------------
                            NO EVENTS OBSERVED.

NOTES:
     All times are in Universal Time (UT).  Characters preceding begin, max,
     and end times are defined as:  B = Before,  U = Uncertain,  A = After.
     All times associated with x-ray flares (ex. flares which produce
     associated x-ray bursts) refer to the begin, max, and end times of the
     x-rays.  Flares which are not associated with x-ray signatures use the
     optical observations to determine the begin, max, and end times.

     Acronyms used to identify sweeps and optical phenomena include:

          II        = Type II Sweep Frequency Event
          III       = Type III Sweep
          IV        = Type IV Sweep
          V         = Type V Sweep
          Continuum = Continuum Radio Event
          Loop      = Loop Prominence System,
          Spray     = Limb Spray,
          Surge     = Bright Limb Surge,
          EPL       = Eruptive Prominence on the Limb.


**  End of Daily Report  **


