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From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
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Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 16 December
To: solar-daily@lut.fi
Date: Fri, 17 Dec 93 21:55:53 MST
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                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                16 DECEMBER, 1993

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 16 DECEMBER, 1993
------------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 350, 12/16/93
10.7 FLUX=084.5  90-AVG=098        SSN=029      BKI=1434 4433  BAI=019
BGND-XRAY=A4.5     FLU1=7.9E+05  FLU10=1.2E+04  PKI=1334 4434  PAI=019
  BOU-DEV=007,051,024,054,056,050,029,029   DEV-AVG=037 NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= B1.0   @ 1007UT    XRAY-MIN= A3.6   @ 2351UT   XRAY-AVG= A6.5
NEUTN-MAX= +003%  @ 0525UT   NEUTN-MIN= -002%  @ 2135UT  NEUTN-AVG= +0.0%
  PCA-MAX= +0.1DB @ 0855UT     PCA-MIN= -0.4DB @ 0950UT    PCA-AVG= -0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55359NT @ 0541UT   BOUTF-MIN=55330NT @ 2123UT  BOUTF-AVG=55350NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT   GOES7-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT  G7-AVG=+046,+000,+000
GOES6-MAX=P:+114NT@ 1333UT   GOES6-MIN=N:-062NT@ 0439UT  G6-AVG=+072,+027,-030
 FLUXFCST=STD:087,089,090;SESC:087,089,090 BAI/PAI-FCST=012,010,020/012,010,022
    KFCST=3334 2221 3333 2211  27DAY-AP=020,009   27DAY-KP=3622 3433 3411 2222
 WARNINGS=
   ALERTS=
!!END-DATA!!

NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 15 DEC 93 was  42.6.
      The Full Kp Indices for 15 DEC 93 are: 2o 2+ 3o 3-   3o 2- 2- 1o 


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity remained very low. New Region 7637
       (N08W05) emerged rapidly and is now a small D-class group.
       A strong arch filament system is visible there. Region 7635
       (N03E51) remained stable. A recent magnetogram shows mixed
       polarities in the plage field of this region.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity should be very
       low. If growth continues in Region 7637, small C-class
       bursts should begin to occur.

            The geomagnetic field was quiet until approximately 0500Z
       when a coronal hole related disturbance began. Mid-latitudes
       were predominantly active after that time. Planetary indices
       were also in the active category but some high latitude
       stations experienced minor to major storm conditions in the
       latter half of the period.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field
       should be generally unsettled on 17 Dec with active
       conditions probable during local nighttime. Mostly
       unsettled levels are forecast for 18 Dec. Active conditions
       are expected to return on 20 Dec as a result of the filament
       disruption noted yesterday. The timing and severity of
       filament related disturbances are difficult to forecast.

            Event probabilities 17 dec-19 dec

                             Class M    05/05/05
                             Class X    01/01/01
                             Proton     01/01/01
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 17 dec-19 dec

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                30/15/30
                        Minor Storm           20/05/20
                        Major-Severe Storm    05/01/05

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                30/15/30
                        Minor Storm           20/05/20
                        Major-Severe Storm    05/01/10

            HF propagation conditions were below-normal over the high
       and polar latitude paths, particularly following the arrival of
       the coronal-hole related disturbance noted above.  Conditions
       since then have been generally poor with very poor conditions
       being occasionally noted over the high and polar latitude
       night-sector paths.  Middle and lower latitudes have remained
       near-normal.  Similar conditions are expected over the next
       three to four days, through 19 or 20 December.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 16/2400Z DECEMBER
-----------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7635  N03E50  274  0050 CSO  03  003 BETA
7637  N08W06  330  0040 DSO  05  006 BETA
7632  N05W21  345                    PLAGE
7636  N14W11  335                    PLAGE
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 17 DECEMBER TO 19 DECEMBER
NMBR LAT    LO
7628 S21   233


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 16 DECEMBER, 1993
-------------------------------------------------------
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP
NONE



POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 16 DECEMBER, 1993
-----------------------------------------------------------
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
     NO EVENTS OBSERVED


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 16/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
53   S46W13 S50W21 S15W69 S15W69  010  ISO   NEG   021 10830A
54   S16E75 S16E75 S05E64 S01E69  262  ISO   POS   001 10830A


SUMMARY OF FLARE EVENTS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY
------------------------------------------------

 Date   Begin  Max   End  Xray  Op Region  Locn    2695 MHz  8800 MHz  15.4 GHz
------  ----  ----  ----  ----  -- ------ ------  --------- --------- ---------
15 Dec: 0102  0106  0114  B3.5                                         
        0652  0701  0705  B6.5                                         
        1049  1055  1059  B2.9                                         


REGION FLARE STATISTICS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY
------------------------------------------------

                C   M   X     S   1   2   3   4   Total   (%)
               --  --  --    --  --  --  --  --    ---  ------
Uncorrellated:  0   0   0     0   0   0   0   0    003  (100.0)

 Total Events: 003 optical and x-ray.


EVENTS WITH SWEEPS AND/OR OPTICAL PHENOMENA FOR THE LAST UTC DAY
----------------------------------------------------------------

 Date   Begin  Max   End  Xray  Op Region  Locn    Sweeps/Optical Observations
------  ----  ----  ----  ----  -- ------ ------   ---------------------------
                            NO EVENTS OBSERVED.

NOTES:
     All times are in Universal Time (UT).  Characters preceding begin, max,
     and end times are defined as:  B = Before,  U = Uncertain,  A = After.
     All times associated with x-ray flares (ex. flares which produce
     associated x-ray bursts) refer to the begin, max, and end times of the
     x-rays.  Flares which are not associated with x-ray signatures use the
     optical observations to determine the begin, max, and end times.

     Acronyms used to identify sweeps and optical phenomena include:

          II        = Type II Sweep Frequency Event
          III       = Type III Sweep
          IV        = Type IV Sweep
          V         = Type V Sweep
          Continuum = Continuum Radio Event
          Loop      = Loop Prominence System,
          Spray     = Limb Spray,
          Surge     = Bright Limb Surge,
          EPL       = Eruptive Prominence on the Limb.


**  End of Daily Report  **


