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From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
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Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 12 December
To: solar-daily@lut.fi
Date: Sun, 12 Dec 93 22:23:59 MST
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                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                12 DECEMBER, 1993

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 12 DECEMBER, 1993
------------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 346, 12/12/93
10.7 FLUX=090.9  90-AVG=097        SSN=033      BKI=1014 2200  BAI=005
BGND-XRAY=B1.4     FLU1=2.5E+05  FLU10=1.2E+04  PKI=2124 2211  PAI=007
  BOU-DEV=006,004,005,057,010,011,002,004   DEV-AVG=012 NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= B9.4   @ 0617UT    XRAY-MIN= B1.1   @ 0150UT   XRAY-AVG= B2.0
NEUTN-MAX= +003%  @ 1810UT   NEUTN-MIN= -002%  @ 1225UT  NEUTN-AVG= +0.3%
  PCA-MAX= +0.0DB @ 2350UT     PCA-MIN= -0.4DB @ 1315UT    PCA-AVG= -0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55353NT @ 1309UT   BOUTF-MIN=55341NT @ 1947UT  BOUTF-AVG=55347NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT   GOES7-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT  G7-AVG=+063,+000,+000
GOES6-MAX=P:+113NT@ 1714UT   GOES6-MIN=N:-074NT@ 0946UT  G6-AVG=+087,+021,-035
 FLUXFCST=STD:090,090,090;SESC:090,090,090 BAI/PAI-FCST=010,010,010/010,010,015
    KFCST=1222 3221 1222 3221  27DAY-AP=009,008   27DAY-KP=3322 2123 3233 2212
 WARNINGS=
   ALERTS=
!!END-DATA!!

NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 11 DEC 93 was  47.1.
      The Full Kp Indices for 11 DEC 93 are not available.


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

            Solar activity was very low. All the regions on
       the disk are quiet and stable.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to be
       very low with a slight chance for an isolated C-flare.

            The geomagnetic field has been at mostly quiet levels
       for the past 24 hours. A period of active conditions
       occured from 0900-1200Z.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to be generally unsettled for the next three days.
       Influences from a coronal hole may increase levels to active
       sometime late on the third day.

            Event probabilities 13 dec-15 dec

                             Class M    01/01/01
                             Class X    01/01/01
                             Proton     01/01/01
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 13 dec-15 dec

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                15/15/15
                        Minor Storm           05/05/05
                        Major-Severe Storm    01/01/01

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                15/15/15
                        Minor Storm           05/05/05
                        Major-Severe Storm    01/01/01

            HF propagation conditions were normal over the low and
       middle latitude regions.  High and polar latitude paths
       continued to see sporadic periods of below-normal propagation
       conditions, although there have been improvements in these
       areas over the last 24 hours.  Similar conditions are expected
       over the next 72 hours.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 12/2400Z DECEMBER
-----------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7629  S20W66  083  0040 HSX  01  001 ALPHA
7630  S10W71  088  0020 HRX  01  001 ALPHA
7633  S17W78  095  0000 AXX  01  001 ALPHA
7631  N13W59  076                    PLAGE
7632  N05E31  346                    PLAGE
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 13 DECEMBER TO 15 DECEMBER
NMBR LAT    LO
7620 N03   268


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 12 DECEMBER, 1993
-------------------------------------------------------
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP SWF
     NO EVENTS OBSERVED


POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 12 DECEMBER, 1993
-----------------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
53   S43E34 S43E34 S09W16 S05W14  015  ISO   NEG   021 10830A


SUMMARY OF FLARE EVENTS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY
------------------------------------------------

 Date   Begin  Max   End  Xray  Op Region  Locn    2695 MHz  8800 MHz  15.4 GHz
------  ----  ----  ----  ----  -- ------ ------  --------- --------- ---------
11 Dec: 2331  2336  2344  B2.5                                         


REGION FLARE STATISTICS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY
------------------------------------------------

                C   M   X     S   1   2   3   4   Total   (%)
               --  --  --    --  --  --  --  --    ---  ------
Uncorrellated:  0   0   0     0   0   0   0   0    001  (100.0)

 Total Events: 001 optical and x-ray.


EVENTS WITH SWEEPS AND/OR OPTICAL PHENOMENA FOR THE LAST UTC DAY
----------------------------------------------------------------

 Date   Begin  Max   End  Xray  Op Region  Locn    Sweeps/Optical Observations
------  ----  ----  ----  ----  -- ------ ------   ---------------------------
                            NO EVENTS OBSERVED.

NOTES:
     All times are in Universal Time (UT).  Characters preceding begin, max,
     and end times are defined as:  B = Before,  U = Uncertain,  A = After.
     All times associated with x-ray flares (ex. flares which produce
     associated x-ray bursts) refer to the begin, max, and end times of the
     x-rays.  Flares which are not associated with x-ray signatures use the
     optical observations to determine the begin, max, and end times.

     Acronyms used to identify sweeps and optical phenomena include:

          II        = Type II Sweep Frequency Event
          III       = Type III Sweep
          IV        = Type IV Sweep
          V         = Type V Sweep
          Continuum = Continuum Radio Event
          Loop      = Loop Prominence System,
          Spray     = Limb Spray,
          Surge     = Bright Limb Surge,
          EPL       = Eruptive Prominence on the Limb.


**  End of Daily Report  **


