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From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
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Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 10 December
To: solar-daily@lut.fi
Date: Fri, 10 Dec 93 22:11:44 MST
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                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                10 DECEMBER, 1993

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 10 DECEMBER, 1993
------------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 344, 12/10/93
10.7 FLUX=096.1  90-AVG=097        SSN=060      BKI=1213 2201  BAI=005
BGND-XRAY=B1.4     FLU1=1.8E+05  FLU10=1.1E+04  PKI=2223 3221  PAI=007
  BOU-DEV=005,014,008,029,011,012,001,005   DEV-AVG=010 NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= B2.8   @ 0445UT    XRAY-MIN= B1.3   @ 2256UT   XRAY-AVG= B1.6
NEUTN-MAX= +002%  @ 2345UT   NEUTN-MIN= -003%  @ 0140UT  NEUTN-AVG= -0.0%
  PCA-MAX= +0.0DB @ 2355UT     PCA-MIN= -0.3DB @ 1405UT    PCA-AVG= -0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55353NT @ 0542UT   BOUTF-MIN=55333NT @ 1916UT  BOUTF-AVG=55348NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT   GOES7-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT  G7-AVG=+064,+000,+000
GOES6-MAX=P:+116NT@ 1810UT   GOES6-MIN=N:-069NT@ 0856UT  G6-AVG=+086,+025,-041
 FLUXFCST=STD:095,095,095;SESC:095,095,095 BAI/PAI-FCST=010,010,010/015,015,010
    KFCST=1223 4322 1223 4322  27DAY-AP=008,011   27DAY-KP=2132 3221 1223 3423
 WARNINGS=
   ALERTS=
!!END-DATA!!

NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 09 DEC 93 was  40.0.
      The Full Kp Indices for 09 DEC 93 are: 2o 2- 1+ 2-   2+ 2- 1o 2- 


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was very low. No flares were reported.
       Three regions were numbered: 7631 (N13W33), 7632 (N06E58), and
       7633 (S18W47). Region 7631 has since lost its spot.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to be
       very low.

            The geomagnetic field was quiet to mildly unsettled.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to be unsettled throughout the period.

            Event probabilities 11 dec-13 dec

                             Class M    01/01/01
                             Class X    01/01/01
                             Proton     01/01/01
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 11 dec-13 dec

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                15/15/15
                        Minor Storm           05/05/05
                        Major-Severe Storm    01/01/01

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                15/20/20
                        Minor Storm           10/10/10
                        Major-Severe Storm    01/01/01

            HF propagation conditions were near-normal over the low
       and middle latitude paths.  High and polar latitude paths saw
       near-normal propagation intermixed with occasional isolated
       minor signal degradation, mostly during the local night sectors
       and on paths transiting the sunrise sector.  These conditions
       will likely persist over the next several days.  Near-normal
       propagation should continue over the middle and lower latitude
       paths.  MUFs have been and likely will remain depressed by up to
       approximately 20 to 30 percent.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 10/2400Z DECEMBER
-----------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7629  S21W40  083  0080 DAO  08  012 BETA
7630  S09W42  085  0050 CAO  07  006 BETA
7632  N06E58  345  0020 HRX  01  001 ALPHA
7633  S18W47  090  0000 AXX  00  001 ALPHA
7627  S15W64  108                    PLAGE
7631  N13W33  076                    PLAGE
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 11 DECEMBER TO 13 DECEMBER
NMBR LAT    LO
NONE


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 10 DECEMBER, 1993
-------------------------------------------------------
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP SWF
     NO EVENTS OBSERVED


POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 10 DECEMBER, 1993
-----------------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
53   S38E66 S38E66 S12E14 S10E20  011  ISO   NEG   010 10830A


SUMMARY OF FLARE EVENTS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY
------------------------------------------------

 Date   Begin  Max   End  Xray  Op Region  Locn    2695 MHz  8800 MHz  15.4 GHz
------  ----  ----  ----  ----  -- ------ ------  --------- --------- ---------
09 Dec: 0111  0114  0116  B4.2                                         
        0206  0214  0220  B4.9                                         
        0318  0322  0326  B4.1  SF  7629  S22W15                       
        0420  0424  0426  B3.1                                         


REGION FLARE STATISTICS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY
------------------------------------------------

                C   M   X     S   1   2   3   4   Total   (%)
               --  --  --    --  --  --  --  --    ---  ------
  Region 7629:  0   0   0     1   0   0   0   0    001  (25.0)
Uncorrellated:  0   0   0     0   0   0   0   0    003  (75.0)

 Total Events: 004 optical and x-ray.


EVENTS WITH SWEEPS AND/OR OPTICAL PHENOMENA FOR THE LAST UTC DAY
----------------------------------------------------------------

 Date   Begin  Max   End  Xray  Op Region  Locn    Sweeps/Optical Observations
------  ----  ----  ----  ----  -- ------ ------   ---------------------------
                            NO EVENTS OBSERVED.

NOTES:
     All times are in Universal Time (UT).  Characters preceding begin, max,
     and end times are defined as:  B = Before,  U = Uncertain,  A = After.
     All times associated with x-ray flares (ex. flares which produce
     associated x-ray bursts) refer to the begin, max, and end times of the
     x-rays.  Flares which are not associated with x-ray signatures use the
     optical observations to determine the begin, max, and end times.

     Acronyms used to identify sweeps and optical phenomena include:

          II        = Type II Sweep Frequency Event
          III       = Type III Sweep
          IV        = Type IV Sweep
          V         = Type V Sweep
          Continuum = Continuum Radio Event
          Loop      = Loop Prominence System,
          Spray     = Limb Spray,
          Surge     = Bright Limb Surge,
          EPL       = Eruptive Prominence on the Limb.


**  End of Daily Report  **


