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From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
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Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 06 December
To: solar-daily@lut.fi
Date: Mon, 6 Dec 93 20:50:26 MST
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                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                06 DECEMBER, 1993

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 06 DECEMBER, 1993
------------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 340, 12/06/93
10.7 FLUX=103.0  90-AVG=096        SSN=095      BKI=1122 2111  BAI=004
BGND-XRAY=B2.3     FLU1=2.3E+06  FLU10=1.1E+04  PKI=1112 2221  PAI=006
  BOU-DEV=009,007,010,017,013,008,008,008   DEV-AVG=010 NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= C9.7   @ 1722UT    XRAY-MIN= B1.8   @ 0141UT   XRAY-AVG= B6.1
NEUTN-MAX= +002%  @ 1415UT   NEUTN-MIN= -002%  @ 1650UT  NEUTN-AVG= +0.0%
  PCA-MAX= +0.1DB @ 2110UT     PCA-MIN= -0.4DB @ 1210UT    PCA-AVG= -0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55358NT @ 0029UT   BOUTF-MIN=55344NT @ 1846UT  BOUTF-AVG=55352NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT   GOES7-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT  G7-AVG=+071,+000,+000
GOES6-MAX=P:+116NT@ 1851UT   GOES6-MIN=N:-067NT@ 1022UT  G6-AVG=+094,+022,-038
 FLUXFCST=STD:105,105,100;SESC:105,105,100 BAI/PAI-FCST=005,005,005/010,015,010
    KFCST=1123 4221 1123 4211  27DAY-AP=009,011   27DAY-KP=2323 2232 3333 3331
 WARNINGS=*SWF
   ALERTS=
!!END-DATA!!

NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 05 DEC 93 was  47.8.
      The Full Kp Indices for 05 DEC 93 are not available.


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was low. Region 7629 (S22E16) has grown
       substantially during the period. Reports of a delta
       configuration in the intermediate spots show a correspondence
       between that site and the location of two sizeable C-class
       flares which occurred recently. The events were a C9/1N at
       1721Z and a C7/SF at 2049Z. The other two spotted regions were
       quiet.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to be
       low to moderate. Region 7629 may yield an M-class event during
       the interval.

            The geomagnetic field has been mostly quiet.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to be quiet to unsettled throughout the period.

            Event probabilities 07 dec-09 dec

                             Class M    40/40/40
                             Class X    01/01/01
                             Proton     01/01/01
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 07 dec-09 dec

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                10/10/10
                        Minor Storm           05/05/05
                        Major-Severe Storm    01/01/01

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                15/20/20
                        Minor Storm           10/10/10
                        Major-Severe Storm    01/05/05

            HF propagation conditions were normal over all regions.
       There may have been a brief SWF over daylit paths near 17:22
       UTC in conjunction with the C9.7 flare, although no reports
       have been received at the present time to confirm this.
       Conditions will continue near-normal over all regions through
       at least 09 December inclusive.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 06/2400Z DECEMBER
-----------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7623  S13W62  158  0000 AXX  00  001 ALPHA
7627  S18W10  106  0100 CSO  09  015 BETA
7629  S22E16  080  0190 EAO  12  024 BETA-DELTA
7630  S09E15  081  0070 DSI  06  015 BETA
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 07 DECEMBER TO 09 DECEMBER
NMBR LAT    LO
7618 N07   339


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 06 DECEMBER, 1993
-------------------------------------------------------
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP
NONE


POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 06 DECEMBER, 1993
-----------------------------------------------------------
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
     NO EVENTS OBSERVED


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 06/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
51   N49W41 N21W72 N23W82 N53W72  166  EXT   POS   019 10830A


SUMMARY OF FLARE EVENTS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY
------------------------------------------------

 Date   Begin  Max   End  Xray  Op Region  Locn    2695 MHz  8800 MHz  15.4 GHz
------  ----  ----  ----  ----  -- ------ ------  --------- --------- ---------
05 Dec: 0056  0100  0104  B3.2                                         
        1025  1033  1042  C4.3                                         
        1059  1104  1111  C2.1                                         
        1323  1336  1351  B4.7                                         
        1539  1545  1554  B6.7  SF  7629  S22E35                       
        1621  1642  1729  C1.6  SF  7629  S22E33                       
        2140  2226  2235  B7.2                                         


REGION FLARE STATISTICS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY
------------------------------------------------

                C   M   X     S   1   2   3   4   Total   (%)
               --  --  --    --  --  --  --  --    ---  ------
  Region 7629:  1   0   0     2   0   0   0   0    002  (28.6)
Uncorrellated:  2   0   0     0   0   0   0   0    005  (71.4)

 Total Events: 007 optical and x-ray.


EVENTS WITH SWEEPS AND/OR OPTICAL PHENOMENA FOR THE LAST UTC DAY
----------------------------------------------------------------

 Date   Begin  Max   End  Xray  Op Region  Locn    Sweeps/Optical Observations
------  ----  ----  ----  ----  -- ------ ------   ---------------------------
                            NO EVENTS OBSERVED.

NOTES:
     All times are in Universal Time (UT).  Characters preceding begin, max,
     and end times are defined as:  B = Before,  U = Uncertain,  A = After.
     All times associated with x-ray flares (ex. flares which produce
     associated x-ray bursts) refer to the begin, max, and end times of the
     x-rays.  Flares which are not associated with x-ray signatures use the
     optical observations to determine the begin, max, and end times.

     Acronyms used to identify sweeps and optical phenomena include:

          II        = Type II Sweep Frequency Event
          III       = Type III Sweep
          IV        = Type IV Sweep
          V         = Type V Sweep
          Continuum = Continuum Radio Event
          Loop      = Loop Prominence System,
          Spray     = Limb Spray,
          Surge     = Bright Limb Surge,
          EPL       = Eruptive Prominence on the Limb.


**  End of Daily Report  **


