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From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
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Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 05 December
To: solar-daily@lut.fi
Date: Mon, 6 Dec 93 11:04:15 MST
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                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                05 DECEMBER, 1993

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 05 DECEMBER, 1993
------------------------------------------------------------

NOTE: The background x-ray statistic was estimated and may be in error
      slightly.  Proton fluence values are also unavailable for today.

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 339, 12/05/93
10.7 FLUX=101    90-AVG=096        SSN=089      BKI=0012 3332  BAI=007
BGND-XRAY=B2.1     FLU1=*.*E+**  FLU10=*.*E+**  PKI=2123 3332  PAI=011
  BOU-DEV=003,004,007,015,039,035,022,010   DEV-AVG=017 NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= C4.3   @ 1034UT    XRAY-MIN= B1.7   @ 1520UT   XRAY-AVG= B3.8
NEUTN-MAX= +002%  @ 0250UT   NEUTN-MIN= -003%  @ 1400UT  NEUTN-AVG= -0.4%
  PCA-MAX= +0.1DB @ 0825UT     PCA-MIN= -0.4DB @ 1140UT    PCA-AVG= -0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55359NT @ 2350UT   BOUTF-MIN=55331NT @ 1928UT  BOUTF-AVG=55349NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT   GOES7-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT  G7-AVG=+070,+000,+000
GOES6-MAX=P:+30081NT@ 0436UT   GOES6-MIN=N:-069NT@ 0952UT  G6-AVG=+116,+023,-040
 FLUXFCST=STD:100,100,100;SESC:100,100,100 BAI/PAI-FCST=010,010,010/010,010,018
    KFCST=1123 4221 1123 4221  27DAY-AP=014,009   27DAY-KP=4333 3432 2323 2232
 WARNINGS=*SWF
   ALERTS=
!!END-DATA!!

NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 04 DEC 93 is not available.
      The Full Kp Indices for 04 DEC 93 are: 2+ 2- 2- 2o   2+ 2o 3o 2o 


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was low. Two uncorrelated C-class x-ray
       bursts were detected. The largest was a C4 at 05/1033UT. Region
       7629 (S22E30) continues to grow and shows signs of becoming
       magnetically complex.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to be
       very low to low. Region 7629 has the best chance of C-class
       activity and an outside chance of producing an isolated M flare.

            The geomagnetic field has been at quiet to unsettled
       levels for the past 24 hours. High latitude stations saw a
       period of unsettled to minor storm levels between 05/1200 and
       05/1500UT.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to be quiet to unsettled for the entire period.

            Event probabilities 06 dec-08 dec

                             Class M    15/15/15
                             Class X    01/01/01
                             Proton     01/01/01
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 06 dec-08 dec

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                15/15/25
                        Minor Storm           05/05/10
                        Major-Severe Storm    01/01/05

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                20/20/20
                        Minor Storm           10/10/10
                        Major-Severe Storm    01/01/05

            HF propagation conditions were normal over all regions,
       although sporadic high-latitude night-sector signal
       instabilities have persisted at slightly above normal levels.
       Conditions are expected to remain normal over all regions.
       There is a slightly increasing probability for SWFs over
       daylit paths during the next 72 hours due to possible minor
       solar flares.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 05/2400Z DECEMBER
-----------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7623  S11W53  162  0000 AXX  02  002 ALPHA
7624  N03W88  197  0180 HSX  02  001 ALPHA
7627  S19E03  106  0110 CSO  09  009 BETA
7629  S23E30  079  0180 DAI  10  017 BETA
7630  S10E28  081  0050 CSO  05  010 BETA
7625  S15W76  185                    PLAGE
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 06 DECEMBER TO 08 DECEMBER
NMBR LAT    LO
7618 N07   339


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 05 DECEMBER, 1993
-------------------------------------------------------
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP
NONE


POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 05 DECEMBER, 1993
-----------------------------------------------------------
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
05/ 1621     1642     1729                LDE    C1.6   68


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 05/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
51   N50W34 S05W64 S01W74 N50W54  170  EXT   POS   023 10830A


SUMMARY OF FLARE EVENTS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY
------------------------------------------------

 Date   Begin  Max   End  Xray  Op Region  Locn    2695 MHz  8800 MHz  15.4 GHz
------  ----  ----  ----  ----  -- ------ ------  --------- --------- ---------
04 Dec: 0109  0117  0121  C1.2  SF  7629  S23E52                       
        0324  0328  0333  B5.5                                         
        0408  0411  0413  B5.2  SF  7629  S22E53                       
        0424  0431  0441  B4.9                                         
        0508  0511  0513  B5.2  SF  7629  S23E50                       
        0516  0522  0524  B6.6  SF  7629  S23E50                       
        0545  0553  0558  B6.3  SF  7629  S23E50                       
        0606  0610  0616  B5.7  SF  7629  S23E49                       
        0658  0704  0708  B3.7                                         
        0741  0747  0751  B3.4  SF  7629  S23E51                       
        0826  0830  0833  B5.6                                         
        1431  1436  1443  B8.3  SF  7629  S21E49                       
        1733  1738  1744  B5.6  SF  7629  S22E44                       
        2252  2254  2256        SF  7630  S11E43                       
        2252  2253  2256        SF  7629  S23E42                       


REGION FLARE STATISTICS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY
------------------------------------------------

                C   M   X     S   1   2   3   4   Total   (%)
               --  --  --    --  --  --  --  --    ---  ------
  Region 7629:  1   0   0    10   0   0   0   0    010  (66.7)
  Region 7630:  0   0   0     1   0   0   0   0    001  ( 6.7)
Uncorrellated:  0   0   0     0   0   0   0   0    004  (26.7)

 Total Events: 015 optical and x-ray.


EVENTS WITH SWEEPS AND/OR OPTICAL PHENOMENA FOR THE LAST UTC DAY
----------------------------------------------------------------

 Date   Begin  Max   End  Xray  Op Region  Locn    Sweeps/Optical Observations
------  ----  ----  ----  ----  -- ------ ------   ---------------------------
                            NO EVENTS OBSERVED.

NOTES:
     All times are in Universal Time (UT).  Characters preceding begin, max,
     and end times are defined as:  B = Before,  U = Uncertain,  A = After.
     All times associated with x-ray flares (ex. flares which produce
     associated x-ray bursts) refer to the begin, max, and end times of the
     x-rays.  Flares which are not associated with x-ray signatures use the
     optical observations to determine the begin, max, and end times.

     Acronyms used to identify sweeps and optical phenomena include:

          II        = Type II Sweep Frequency Event
          III       = Type III Sweep
          IV        = Type IV Sweep
          V         = Type V Sweep
          Continuum = Continuum Radio Event
          Loop      = Loop Prominence System,
          Spray     = Limb Spray,
          Surge     = Bright Limb Surge,
          EPL       = Eruptive Prominence on the Limb.


**  End of Daily Report  **


