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From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
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Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 04 December
To: solar-daily@lut.fi
Date: Sun, 5 Dec 93 12:13:02 MST
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                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                04 DECEMBER, 1993

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 04 DECEMBER, 1993
------------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 338, 12/04/93
10.7 FLUX=105    90-AVG=096        SSN=099      BKI=1011 2221  BAI=004
BGND-XRAY=B2.2     FLU1=9.7E+05  FLU10=1.1E+04  PKI=2222 2232  PAI=008
  BOU-DEV=005,003,005,009,015,019,013,005   DEV-AVG=009 NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= B8.3   @ 1437UT    XRAY-MIN= B1.8   @ 2315UT   XRAY-AVG= B2.8
NEUTN-MAX= +001%  @ 2325UT   NEUTN-MIN= -003%  @ 1540UT  NEUTN-AVG= -0.2%
  PCA-MAX= +0.0DB @ 2340UT     PCA-MIN= -0.4DB @ 1300UT    PCA-AVG= -0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55358NT @ 1435UT   BOUTF-MIN=55338NT @ 2009UT  BOUTF-AVG=55350NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT   GOES7-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT  G7-AVG=+072,+000,+000
GOES6-MAX=P:+123NT@ 1727UT   GOES6-MIN=N:-071NT@ 1005UT  G6-AVG=+095,+025,-044
 FLUXFCST=STD:105,105,100;SESC:105,105,100 BAI/PAI-FCST=010,010,010/010,010,010
    KFCST=0003 4000 0003 4000  27DAY-AP=019,014   27DAY-KP=4243 3334 4333 3432
 WARNINGS=*SWF
   ALERTS=
!!END-DATA!!

NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 03 DEC 93 was  49.4.
      The Full Kp Indices for 03 DEC 93 are: 6- 5o 6- 5o   4+ 3- 3o 2+ 


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was low by virtue of a single C1/SF flare
       in Region 7629 (S22E42) at 04/0117UT. This region was the most
       productive of the past 24 hours but the remainder of its flares
       were B-class sub faints. This region grew to a DAO over the
       past 24 hours while Region 7627 (S18E17) decayed somewhat.
       Region 7630 (S10E41) also showed growth and has emerged as a
       CAO spot group.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to be
       very low to low for the entire forecast period. Regions 7627,
       7629 and 7630 all have fair C-class potential and an outside
       chance of an isolated M-class flare.

            The geomagnetic field has been at mostly quiet to unsettled
       levels for the past 24 hours

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to be quiet to unsettled for the entire forecast
       period.

            Event probabilities 05 dec-07 dec

                             Class M    15/15/15
                             Class X    01/01/01
                             Proton     01/01/01
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 05 dec-07 dec

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                15/15/15
                        Minor Storm           05/05/05
                        Major-Severe Storm    01/01/01

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                20/20/15
                        Minor Storm           10/10/10
                        Major-Severe Storm    01/01/01

            HF propagation conditions were below-normal during
       approximately the first half of the UTC day, but returned to
       near-normal over most regions by the end of the UTC day.
       Conditions are expected to remain near-normal over the next
       72 hours, through 07 December inclusive.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 04/2400Z DECEMBER
-----------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7623  S11W39  161  0040 CRO  05  003 BETA
7624  N03W71  193  0170 CAO  12  005 BETA
7625  S15W63  185  0000 AXX  01  002 ALPHA
7627  S18E15  107  0120 CSO  10  012 BETA
7629  S22E42  080  0120 DAO  07  012 BETA
7630  S10E41  081  0030 CAO  03  005 BETA
7626  N27W53  175                    PLAGE
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 05 DECEMBER TO 07 DECEMBER
NMBR LAT    LO
NONE


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 04 DECEMBER, 1993
-------------------------------------------------------
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP
NONE


POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 04 DECEMBER, 1993
-----------------------------------------------------------
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
03/A2038             B1241       S20W61   DSF
04/A1302             B1751       N34W14   DSF


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 04/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
51   N48E07 N12W49 N18W63 N50W31  159  EXT   POS   026 10830A


SUMMARY OF FLARE EVENTS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY
------------------------------------------------

 Date   Begin  Max   End  Xray  Op Region  Locn    2695 MHz  8800 MHz  15.4 GHz
------  ----  ----  ----  ----  -- ------ ------  --------- --------- ---------
03 Dec: 0641  0645  0656  B3.8                                         
        1135  1139  1142  B4.4                                         
        1348  1353 A1418        SF  7627  S17E41                       
        1657  1658  1703        SF  7627  S19E39                       
        1801  1805  1808        SF  7627  S18E39                       
        1932  1938  1945        SF  7629  S22E57                       
        2241  2248  2303  B6.8                                         


REGION FLARE STATISTICS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY
------------------------------------------------

                C   M   X     S   1   2   3   4   Total   (%)
               --  --  --    --  --  --  --  --    ---  ------
  Region 7627:  0   0   0     3   0   0   0   0    003  (42.9)
  Region 7629:  0   0   0     1   0   0   0   0    001  (14.3)
Uncorrellated:  0   0   0     0   0   0   0   0    003  (42.9)

 Total Events: 007 optical and x-ray.


EVENTS WITH SWEEPS AND/OR OPTICAL PHENOMENA FOR THE LAST UTC DAY
----------------------------------------------------------------

 Date   Begin  Max   End  Xray  Op Region  Locn    Sweeps/Optical Observations
------  ----  ----  ----  ----  -- ------ ------   ---------------------------
03 Dec: 0641  0645  0656  B3.8                     II,III

NOTES:
     All times are in Universal Time (UT).  Characters preceding begin, max,
     and end times are defined as:  B = Before,  U = Uncertain,  A = After.
     All times associated with x-ray flares (ex. flares which produce
     associated x-ray bursts) refer to the begin, max, and end times of the
     x-rays.  Flares which are not associated with x-ray signatures use the
     optical observations to determine the begin, max, and end times.

     Acronyms used to identify sweeps and optical phenomena include:

          II        = Type II Sweep Frequency Event
          III       = Type III Sweep
          IV        = Type IV Sweep
          V         = Type V Sweep
          Continuum = Continuum Radio Event
          Loop      = Loop Prominence System,
          Spray     = Limb Spray,
          Surge     = Bright Limb Surge,
          EPL       = Eruptive Prominence on the Limb.


**  End of Daily Report  **


