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From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
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Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 03 December
To: solar-daily@lut.fi
Date: Fri, 3 Dec 93 22:21:54 MST
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                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                03 DECEMBER, 1993

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 03 DECEMBER, 1993
------------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 337, 12/03/93
10.7 FLUX=105.6  90-AVG=095        SSN=097      BKI=5554 3332  BAI=027
BGND-XRAY=B1.9     FLU1=2.1E+06  FLU10=1.1E+04  PKI=6565 4332  PAI=037
  BOU-DEV=074,105,083,055,025,000,000,011   DEV-AVG=044 NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= B4.4   @ 1140UT    XRAY-MIN= B1.3   @ 0213UT   XRAY-AVG= B2.4
NEUTN-MAX= +001%  @ 1450UT   NEUTN-MIN= -004%  @ 0850UT  NEUTN-AVG= -1.3%
  PCA-MAX= +0.1DB @ 0910UT     PCA-MIN= -0.5DB @ 1230UT    PCA-AVG= -0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55377NT @ 0306UT   BOUTF-MIN=55312NT @ 1023UT  BOUTF-AVG=55338NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT   GOES7-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT  G7-AVG=+042,+000,+000
GOES6-MAX=P:+108NT@ 1605UT   GOES6-MIN=N:-118NT@ 0911UT  G6-AVG=+068,+035,-067
 FLUXFCST=STD:110,110,105;SESC:110,110,105 BAI/PAI-FCST=020,015,010/020,015,010
    KFCST=3344 4333 3343 3322  27DAY-AP=027,019   27DAY-KP=4355 4434 4243 3334
 WARNINGS=*SWF
   ALERTS=**SWEEP:II=2@0637-0643UTC;**245STRM:0632-0849UTC
!!END-DATA!!

NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 02 DEC 93 was  43.0.
      The Full Kp Indices for 02 DEC 93 are: 4+ 5- 5o 5-   4+ 4- 5o 5+ 


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was very low.  Region 7627 (S18E31) and
       newly assigned Region 7629 (S22E55) produced the only action
       this period.  All activity was in the B-class/SF range.  A type
       II sweep was reported by Learmonth, Culgoora, and San Vito at
       0636Z.  No optical correlation was noted.  One other region was
       numbered last night, Region 7630 (S10E56).  All others regions
       appear dormant.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to be
       low.  Region 7627 and new Region 7629 provide the greatest
       potential for flare activity at the moment.

            The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to minor storm
       levels at mid latitudes and active to severe storm at high
       latitudes.  Since 18Z, the field has settled down at both
       mid and high latitudes to mostly unsettled.  Activity is most
       likely a result of a favorably positioned coronal hole.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to be at active levels on day one declining to mostly
       unsettled levels on days two and three as coronal effects are
       lessened.

            Event probabilities 04 dec-06 dec

                             Class M    15/20/20
                             Class X    01/01/01
                             Proton     01/01/01
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 04 dec-06 dec

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                35/20/10
                        Minor Storm           20/10/05
                        Major-Severe Storm    10/01/01

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                40/20/20
                        Minor Storm           30/10/10
                        Major-Severe Storm    15/05/01

            HF propagation conditions continued below-normal over the
       polar, high, and middle latitude paths although middle latitude
       paths saw some minor improvements as levels of geomagnetic
       activity began to subside.  High and polar latitude paths will
       see gradual improvements over the next 24 hours.  Near-normal
       propagation is expected over most regions on 05 December.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 03/2400Z DECEMBER
-----------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7623  S09W27  163  0020 HRX  03  003 ALPHA
7624  N04W56  192  0230 EAO  11  008 BETA
7625  S16W51  187  0000 AXX  02  002 ALPHA
7627  S18E31  105  0150 EAO  12  015 BETA
7629  S22E55  081  0130 DAO  07  007 BETA
7630  S10E56  080  0000 AXX  01  002 ALPHA
7626  N27W40  176                    PLAGE
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 04 DECEMBER TO 06 DECEMBER
NMBR LAT    LO
NONE


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 03 DECEMBER, 1993
-------------------------------------------------------
A.  ENERGETIC EVENTS:
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP
 0641 0645 0656              B3.8                   II
 0739 0739 0739                          160
 0817 0817 0817                          130



POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 03 DECEMBER, 1993
-----------------------------------------------------------
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
03/ 0637              0643                RSP    B3.8   15  2


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 03/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
51   N50E23 S07W30 N23W74 N53W18  169  EXT   POS   044 10830A


SUMMARY OF FLARE EVENTS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY
------------------------------------------------

 Date   Begin  Max   End  Xray  Op Region  Locn    2695 MHz  8800 MHz  15.4 GHz
------  ----  ----  ----  ----  -- ------ ------  --------- --------- ---------
02 Dec: 0536  0539  0541  B2.8                                         
        1549  1558  1603  B6.4  SF  7627  S16E55                       
        1925  1932  1937  B4.5  SF  7627  S18E48                       
        2232  2251  2317  B9.2  SF  7627  S19E48                       


REGION FLARE STATISTICS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY
------------------------------------------------

                C   M   X     S   1   2   3   4   Total   (%)
               --  --  --    --  --  --  --  --    ---  ------
  Region 7627:  0   0   0     3   0   0   0   0    003  (75.0)
Uncorrellated:  0   0   0     0   0   0   0   0    001  (25.0)

 Total Events: 004 optical and x-ray.


EVENTS WITH SWEEPS AND/OR OPTICAL PHENOMENA FOR THE LAST UTC DAY
----------------------------------------------------------------

 Date   Begin  Max   End  Xray  Op Region  Locn    Sweeps/Optical Observations
------  ----  ----  ----  ----  -- ------ ------   ---------------------------
                            NO EVENTS OBSERVED.

NOTES:
     All times are in Universal Time (UT).  Characters preceding begin, max,
     and end times are defined as:  B = Before,  U = Uncertain,  A = After.
     All times associated with x-ray flares (ex. flares which produce
     associated x-ray bursts) refer to the begin, max, and end times of the
     x-rays.  Flares which are not associated with x-ray signatures use the
     optical observations to determine the begin, max, and end times.

     Acronyms used to identify sweeps and optical phenomena include:

          II        = Type II Sweep Frequency Event
          III       = Type III Sweep
          IV        = Type IV Sweep
          V         = Type V Sweep
          Continuum = Continuum Radio Event
          Loop      = Loop Prominence System,
          Spray     = Limb Spray,
          Surge     = Bright Limb Surge,
          EPL       = Eruptive Prominence on the Limb.


**  End of Daily Report  **


