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From: oler@rho.uleth.ca (Cary Oler)
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Subject: Daily Summary of Solar Geophysical Activity for 02 December
To: solar-daily@lut.fi
Date: Fri, 3 Dec 93 9:32:24 MST
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                 DAILY SUMMARY OF SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY

                                02 DECEMBER, 1993

                /\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\/\

                  (Based In-Part On SESC Observational Data)


SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL ACTIVITY INDICES FOR 02 DECEMBER, 1993
------------------------------------------------------------

!!BEGIN!! (1.0) S.T.D. Solar Geophysical Data Broadcast for DAY 336, 12/02/93
10.7 FLUX=104.3  90-AVG=095        SSN=085      BKI=5454 4444  BAI=032
BGND-XRAY=B1.6     FLU1=6.0E+06  FLU10=1.2E+04  PKI=4555 4455  PAI=039
  BOU-DEV=073,053,071,033,050,041,067,047   DEV-AVG=054 NT     SWF=00:000
 XRAY-MAX= B6.4   @ 1559UT    XRAY-MIN= B1.3   @ 1742UT   XRAY-AVG= B2.1
NEUTN-MAX= +002%  @ 1110UT   NEUTN-MIN= -003%  @ 2110UT  NEUTN-AVG= -0.5%
  PCA-MAX= +0.1DB @ 2350UT     PCA-MIN= -0.4DB @ 1350UT    PCA-AVG= -0.0DB
BOUTF-MAX=55370NT @ 0154UT   BOUTF-MIN=55301NT @ 1846UT  BOUTF-AVG=55339NT
GOES7-MAX=P:+000NT@ 0000UT   GOES7-MIN=N:+000NT@ 0000UT  G7-AVG=+050,+000,+000
GOES6-MAX=P:+124NT@ 1654UT   GOES6-MIN=N:-083NT@ 0632UT  G6-AVG=+073,+023,-040
 FLUXFCST=STD:110,110,105;SESC:110,110,105 BAI/PAI-FCST=025,015,010/025,020,015
    KFCST=3335 6333 3312 3111  27DAY-AP=028,027   27DAY-KP=3355 4334 4355 4434
 WARNINGS=*SWF;*MINSTRM;*AURMIDWRN
   ALERTS=**MINSTRM
!!END-DATA!!

NOTE: The Effective Sunspot Number for 01 DEC 93 was  45.0.
      The Full Kp Indices for 01 DEC 93 are: 2- 1- 1o 5-   5o 4- 3+ 5- 


SYNOPSIS OF ACTIVITY
--------------------

             Solar activity was very low.  Region 7624 (N04W42) and
       Region 7627 (S18E43) remain as the two most impressive regions
       on the disk.  Region 7627 was responsible for the only
       optically correlated flare, a weak B6/SF.  Both regions grew
       slightly overnight but basically remain simple beta groups.
       Region 7628 rotated off the disk.

            Solar activity forecast:  solar activity is expected to be
       low.  Both Regions 7624 and 7627 have good potential for
       producing C-class flare activity and an outside chance of
       producing isolated M-class activity.

            The geomagnetic field has been at unsettled to minor storm
       levels for the past 24 hours at mid latitudes and unsettled
       to major storm levels at high latitudes.  Since 12Z, mid
       latitude activity has declined to active levels.  Activity is
       most likely the result of a favorably positioned coronal
       hole.

            Geophysical activity forecast:  the geomagnetic field is
       expected to decline to mostly unsettled to active levels for
       days one and two and mostly unsettled levels on day three.

            Event probabilities 03 dec-05 dec

                             Class M    10/15/20
                             Class X    01/01/01
                             Proton     01/01/01
                             PCAF       Green

            Geomagnetic activity probabilities 03 dec-05 dec

                        A.  Middle Latitudes
                        Active                20/20/15
                        Minor Storm           30/20/10
                        Major-Severe Storm    20/10/05

                        B.  High Latitudes
                        Active                30/25/20
                        Minor Storm           40/30/20
                        Major-Severe Storm    20/15/10

            HF propagation conditions were below-normal over most
       regions.  Moderate to occasionally strong signal degradation
       was observed for transpolar and transauroral paths.  Middle
       latitude paths saw minor signal degradation.  Heaviest signal
       degradation occurred during the local night sectors of all
       regions.  MUFs remain depressed.  Conditions should slowly
       improve over the next several days, returning to near-normal
       over most regions by 04 or 05 December.  An outside chance
       continues to linger for possible brief SWF activity on daylit
       paths.


COPIES OF JOINT USAF/NOAA SESC SOLAR GEOPHYSICAL REPORTS
========================================================

REGIONS WITH SUNSPOTS. LOCATIONS VALID AT 02/2400Z DECEMBER
-----------------------------------------------------------
NMBR LOCATION  LO  AREA  Z   LL   NN MAG TYPE
7623  S10W13  162  0020 HRX  03  003 ALPHA
7624  N04W42  191  0250 EAO  11  025 BETA
7625  S14W40  189  0010 BXO  04  003 BETA
7627  S16E43  106  0150 DAO  10  014 BETA
7622  N14W73  222                    PLAGE
7626  N27W27  176                    PLAGE
7628  S21W87  236                    PLAGE
REGIONS DUE TO RETURN 03 DECEMBER TO 05 DECEMBER
NMBR LAT    LO
NONE


LISTING OF SOLAR ENERGETIC EVENTS FOR 02 DECEMBER, 1993
-------------------------------------------------------
A.  ENERGETIC EVENTS:
BEGIN  MAX  END  RGN   LOC   XRAY  OP 245MHZ 10CM   SWEEP
NONE



POSSIBLE CORONAL MASS EJECTION EVENTS FOR 02 DECEMBER, 1993
-----------------------------------------------------------
 BEGIN        MAX      END     LOCATION   TYPE   SIZE  DUR  II IV
     NO EVENTS OBSERVED


INFERRED CORONAL HOLES. LOCATIONS VALID AT 02/2400Z
---------------------------------------------------
               ISOLATED HOLES AND POLAR EXTENSIONS
      EAST   SOUTH  WEST   NORTH  CAR  TYPE  POL  AREA   OBSN
51   N44E18 S08W23 N12W72 N45W03  174  EXT   POS   040 10830A


SUMMARY OF FLARE EVENTS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY
------------------------------------------------

 Date   Begin  Max   End  Xray  Op Region  Locn    2695 MHz  8800 MHz  15.4 GHz
------  ----  ----  ----  ----  -- ------ ------  --------- --------- ---------
01 Dec: 0024  0039  0046        SF  7624  N05W18                       
        0057  0112  0134        SF  7624  N06W18                       
        0149  0151  0154        SF  7624  N05W19                       
        0156  0205  0211  C3.2  SF  7624  N05W18                       
        0235  0237  0250        SF  7624  N05W19                       
        0412  0419  0423  C5.0  1N  7624  N05W21                       
        0439  0443  0449        SF  7624  N04W16                       
        0555  0603  0616        SF  7624  N04W20                       
        0659  0705  0711  C3.1  SF  7627  S23E65                            65
        0842  0859  0902        SF  7624  N06W23                       
        0932  0932  0938        SF  7624  N05W24                       
        1105  1109  1111  B5.4                                         
        1110  1113  1115  C1.4  SF  7624  N03W22                       
        1200  1205  1211  B6.1                                         
        1226  1230  1233  B8.6  SF  7624  N04W24                       
        2127  2134  2138  B4.1                                         


REGION FLARE STATISTICS FOR THE PREVIOUS UTC DAY
------------------------------------------------

                C   M   X     S   1   2   3   4   Total   (%)
               --  --  --    --  --  --  --  --    ---  ------
  Region 7624:  3   0   0    11   1   0   0   0    012  (75.0)
  Region 7627:  1   0   0     1   0   0   0   0    001  ( 6.2)
Uncorrellated:  0   0   0     0   0   0   0   0    003  (18.8)

 Total Events: 016 optical and x-ray.


EVENTS WITH SWEEPS AND/OR OPTICAL PHENOMENA FOR THE LAST UTC DAY
----------------------------------------------------------------

 Date   Begin  Max   End  Xray  Op Region  Locn    Sweeps/Optical Observations
------  ----  ----  ----  ----  -- ------ ------   ---------------------------
                            NO EVENTS OBSERVED.

NOTES:
     All times are in Universal Time (UT).  Characters preceding begin, max,
     and end times are defined as:  B = Before,  U = Uncertain,  A = After.
     All times associated with x-ray flares (ex. flares which produce
     associated x-ray bursts) refer to the begin, max, and end times of the
     x-rays.  Flares which are not associated with x-ray signatures use the
     optical observations to determine the begin, max, and end times.

     Acronyms used to identify sweeps and optical phenomena include:

          II        = Type II Sweep Frequency Event
          III       = Type III Sweep
          IV        = Type IV Sweep
          V         = Type V Sweep
          Continuum = Continuum Radio Event
          Loop      = Loop Prominence System,
          Spray     = Limb Spray,
          Surge     = Bright Limb Surge,
          EPL       = Eruptive Prominence on the Limb.


**  End of Daily Report  **


